The jobs report headlines tick me off. The news isn’t October only adding 12,000 jobs.
The news is that the private sector lost 28,000 jobs!
Yes, all 12,000 jobs added in October are in the public sector. In other words, government jobs.
The private sector lost 28,000 jobs!
The administration will blame Hurricanes Helene and Milton along with the Boeing strike.
That shouldn’t fly because August and September lost 112,000 jobs combined.
Peter Tchir of Academy Securities wrote (his emphasis), “I admit, this is outside of my NFP skillset. Presumably the hurricanes had an impact, but why didn’t the hurricanes affect ADP which came in at 233k with upward revisions to the prior month?”
ADP is a private sector national employment report.
So, yeah, how did the hurricanes not affect ADP’s report?
Here are the main points:
I always breakdown these reports with my finance and market friend.
We both agree that the last couple of months, significantly when the administration revised down the yearly job total by hundreds of thousands, have made any government report even more difficult to believe.
The Fed likely views the jobs report as a positive, justifying the rate cuts and probably justifying another rate cut.
It’ll be an excuse to artificially pump the market, which could help VP Kamala Harris win.
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