Private Sector Lost 28,000 Jobs in October 2024
August and September job totals revised down by 112,000 combined. Sheesh.
The jobs report headlines tick me off. The news isn’t October only adding 12,000 jobs.
The news is that the private sector lost 28,000 jobs!
Yes, all 12,000 jobs added in October are in the public sector. In other words, government jobs.
The private sector lost 28,000 jobs!
There it is: Private Payrolls -28K, Exp. 70K
If it wasn't for government jobs, October would be the first negative payrolls month since December 2020
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 1, 2024
The administration will blame Hurricanes Helene and Milton along with the Boeing strike.
That shouldn’t fly because August and September lost 112,000 jobs combined.
You will NEVER guess which way previous months were revised:
August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000,
September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to
+223,000— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 1, 2024
Peter Tchir of Academy Securities wrote (his emphasis), “I admit, this is outside of my NFP skillset. Presumably the hurricanes had an impact, but why didn’t the hurricanes affect ADP which came in at 233k with upward revisions to the prior month?”
ADP is a private sector national employment report.
So, yeah, how did the hurricanes not affect ADP’s report?
Here are the main points:
- Manufacturing lost 48,000 jobs
- Durable goods (goods for immediate consumption & can be kept for a period of time, like appliances, furniture, and electronics) lost 47,000 jobs
- Professional and business services lost 47,000 jobs
- Retail trade lost 6,400 jobs
I always breakdown these reports with my finance and market friend.
We both agree that the last couple of months, significantly when the administration revised down the yearly job total by hundreds of thousands, have made any government report even more difficult to believe.
The Fed likely views the jobs report as a positive, justifying the rate cuts and probably justifying another rate cut.
It’ll be an excuse to artificially pump the market, which could help VP Kamala Harris win.
#etf pic.twitter.com/13clYTP6RN
— Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. (@RudyHavenstein) October 31, 2024
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Comments
Looking at first graph, the ‘prior revised’ of 194K got my attention. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ reasonably confident last month’s published jobs report was something over 250K. I remember it because Biden took a nationally televised ‘victory’ lap that morning, making his way to the cameras right after the two or three-hour ‘quiet period’ window that Presidents are supposed to wait before commenting on these reports.
How often are they ‘revising’ the published jobs number by 50K (or more) jobs? To me, it seems like it happens A LOT and it’s almost always a downward revision.
Yup. It was 254,000 in September and 159,000 in August. I need to add Zerohedge’s post.
“How often are they ‘revising’ the published jobs number by 50K (or more) jobs? To me, it seems like it happens A LOT and it’s almost always a downward revision.”
Indeed. And funny thing… the first numbers are released, the empty husk known as Joe Biden takes a victory lap, next month the numbers are “quietly revised downward,” and in incurious media completely ignores it.
12,000 temp election worker who will be out of a job shortly.
Side effects of regulation would be Biden’s fault. The inflation and trying to fix inflation, along with economy slowing owing to dollars removed by high interest rates, is the fault of COVID and the resulting supply/demand distortions that have to work themselves out, not Biden’s fault. So I”d say it’s not actually a good issue, except for the regulation killing off energy supplies.
Biden is there, you punch the pedophile right in the gut with it. They would give us no grace, therefore the should receive none. It’s all on the pedophile in chief.
Don’t forget the drag on private sector hiring that is caused by government-imposed raises to the minimum wage.
Covid didn’t cause inflation. The dumbass responses of both Federal govt to juice fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve to accommodate that with juiced monetary policy by creating roughly $6 trillion out of this air along with stupidly shutting down, mask mandates vax regime and deliberate fear porn politics caused inflation.
Want to get inflation under control? Gotta get the excess $6 trillion out of the system. The Fed Reserve should be hiking rates above 10% to do just that thing but our economy is now addicted to low/zero rates and it would kill off the zombie corporations and their phoney baloney jobs if we did that.
I suspect the institutional money is shifting out of risk assets while retail investors buy in and once the smart money/big money is out that’s when the Fed reserve acts and the music stops. Then asset prices /equities fall dramatically to get that excess $6 trillion evaporated out of the economy. Then the big institutional investors buy in at the rock bottom prices.
Then again I am a very cynical guy so I could be wrong.
Built. Back. Better., Jack!
Only government and government-funded jobs are growing. Not a surprise, we have been in recession for a while now.
There’s lies, there are damned lies, there are statistics and then there are government statistics.
Those numbers are pure bu!!$h!t.
In a previous life, I worked in government statistics. I wouldn’t trust those numbers one single bit.
If all they can manage for this lift of the bull’s tail is 12,000 jobs, imagine how bad the actual numbers must be.
This sort of news is the reason why the practice of early voting should be ended.
How many people voted believe]ing the economy is in better shape than it actually is??
Well, there are a lot of reasons, including lat-breaking scandals and even outright deaths. But that horse has sailed.
The 12K will be revised downward next month as usual.
Two observations. Even the barest minimum effort to deal with a near $2T annual Federal budget deficit would likely hit employment, the economy and the stock market severely. It is all fake, propped up by spending money that we do not have.
Employment data shows that we are only about 2M jobs above pre-pandemic levels and that all of the gains are jobs to foreign-born people. Furthermore, it has been reported that the tech sector has been under pressure for some time and companies “are seeing better candidates at better prices”.
There are no consequences for lying.
So why wouldn’t they keep lying?
The real news is that BLS didn’t—or maybe couldn’t—fudge the numbers to make everything look peaches and cream.
well
when they add biden and harris to that trash heap come jan 2025
we willlll celebrate
How many government workers lost their jobs? I thought so…