Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer Retires From Election Polling After 16-Point Miss
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite.” Yes, it is.
We all remember it. On the Saturday evening before the election, Ann Selzer, the lead pollster for the Des Moines Register and one of the most respected pollsters in America, released a shock poll that will live in infamy. She found that Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of President-elect Donald Trump in Iowa by three points. People were stunned because Iowa is a red state that Trump won in 2016 and in 2020. His campaign did not direct serious resources to the state this year because it was assumed he would win. In fact, one hour before Selzer published her results, an Emerson College poll was released that showed Trump ahead by 10 points.
The headline in the Register read: “Iowa poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.” The lede said: “The nationally recognized Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris picking up support from women to surpass Donald Trump in a ruby-red state he has won twice.”
— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) November 2, 2024
The day before the election, the Daily Beast reported that, in an appearance on MSNBC, “famed pollster Ann Selzer” said Harris was winning because “abortion has gotten people interested in voting.” She doesn’t sound like a Trump voter, does she?
Famed Pollster Ann Selzer Says This Is Why Harris is Ahead. Heard her on Morning Joe. Smart Cookie! https://t.co/VXpLkZpBBS
— B. Sargent Noble (@schpsych8) November 4, 2024
At any rate, given Selzer’s credibility, her poll sent shockwaves throughout the political world. Republicans panicked, and Democrats gloated. Over at CNN and MSNBC, hosts wondered if Harris was actually stronger than anyone had thought. If she’s outperforming in a red state, she could be headed for a national landslide.
If IOWA is even close, it would mean that the best use of @realDonaldTrump’s time now would be to get fitted for some nice orange jumpsuits he’s going to need very soon. https://t.co/5TgzsGcUmI
— George Conway (@gtconway3d) November 2, 2024
I'm going to put this video in a time capsule, open it up in 20 years, and laugh my ass off again 🤣 pic.twitter.com/liPvxu1R2p
— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) November 8, 2024
Lo and behold, Trump won the state by 13 points. Selzer had missed by a whopping 16 points.
On Sunday, Selzer announced she was retiring from election polling. She will be moving on “to other ventures and opportunities.”
But she wants everyone to know she made the decision to retire over a year ago. It had nothing to do with her big miss. Got that?
According to Selzer:
Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities.
Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections.
Does anyone believe her? I doubt it.
Perhaps the more important question to ask is how does someone, whose work has been considered “the gold standard” in her field, and who is intimately familiar with the political lay of the land in a state she’s been polling for 30 years, get it so wrong?
Five points? Seven? Okay. Polling is not an exact science. Outliers happen. But a double digit miss from an A+ rated pollster? [In her retirement announcement, Selzer wrote: “Over 30 years of polling led to an A+ rating in Nate Silver’s analysis of pollsters’ track records of accuracy. I earned that rating in Silver’s first list, and my grade never dropped.”]
For obvious reasons, there’s been speculation that Selzer had her thumb on the scale for Team Harris. Republicans wonder if the purpose of this poll was to sway the election. Three days ahead of the election, a reputable pollster comes out with a survey showing the GOP candidate losing to a Democrat in a red state. That could certainly dampen (some) Republican voters’ enthusiasm to go out and vote. That’s why these polls are sometimes called suppression polls.
Conversely, a result like this could energize Democrats who, prior to the poll didn’t think their candidate had a chance.
Took the big payout to skew the election then bails. Got it.
Q: Why do Democrats always cheat?
A: It’s the only way they can win
— Jeff Carlson (@themarketswork) November 17, 2024
This is pure speculation. We have no way of knowing if this result occurred because it was based on an extremely unrepresentative sample of the target population or if something more nefarious was involved.
As one commenter noted, “Sometimes people just retire.”
That’s true, but sometimes they are forced to retire.
Many people cashed in all their credibility to stop Trump in 2024. Like all the ppl who claimed he’s a fascist, just like Hitler, and threatened to put Liz Cheney in front of a firing squad. All those liars have been rendered impotent & silly. Never to be taken seriously again.
— AOC Parody (@ParodyAoc) November 17, 2024
Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a member of the Editorial Board at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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Comments
Well, Bye
Pollster loses trust after 30 years of picking the Democrat winner in a ruby red state.
“Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in Iowa anymore.”
Notice she’s leaving polling not being a liberal hack.
“and one of the most respected pollsters in America, released a shock poll that will live in infamy”
Here’s a picture of that poll,
https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/0/ab/0ab643e4-a214-11e6-969d-0f4c57c95f44/581bb8ecd2f6e.image.jpg?crop=1647%2C865%2C0%2C196&resize=1200%2C630&order=crop%2Cresize
Heh, heh. Oopsie.
You know Truman had as much fun with that as Trump did with the pollsters.
.
Of course, that wasn’t a poll, just an amazingly inept misreporting of actual election results.
“Republicans panicked, and Democrats gloated.”
Who panicked, I sure as hell didn’t, because I don’t trust pollsters. If I answer one at all, I feed them BS.
So many people torched their credibility since 2015. The trust in entire government agencies is gone.
The Bank of Credibility called. You are overdrawn. They closed your account.
is Seltzer an Alkie ??
Plop plop
Fizz fizz
Oh what a relief it is
Now that Kamala Harris is gone
“You’re going to retire anyway, how about we pay you for a very positive poll?” Scott Adams’s suspicion.
“On Sunday, Selzer announced she was retiring from election polling. She will be moving on “to other ventures and opportunities.”
So if you’re looking to join an apocalypse cult on the heels of this election, here’s the number to call. She already has the date chosen and will gladly reveal it to anyone paying the membership fee!
I doubt the 16 point error only a few days before the election was simply an outlier. The most credible explanation: she cheated. Many people, especially in news world, would do anything to stop Trump. We don’t need a smoking gun.
” …one of the most respected pollsters in America…” Every action has a doer who was doing the respecting? Nate Silver? Who else? I don’t like writing in the passive voice.
In my opinion, no one should take these polls seriously. The response rate is less than 1%. So pollsters use all kinds of tricks called “imputation,” which provides ample opportunity to fiddle. I have designed, conducted and analyzed many surveys. My main reference: “Model Assisted Survey Sampling,” Sarndal et al. for the fundamental theory. I stay away from political polling. The field is a mess and rife with cheating.
“… her poll sent shockwaves throughout the political world. Republicans panicked, and Democrats gloated.” This shows how stupid and gullible the political world is.
“Kamala Harris leapfrogs over Donald Trump.”
More like. “Dead cat twitched slightly as Trump threw it out the door and into the trash.”
Does this chick think she is Alanis Morisette?? Something being the opposite of what you desire is not “irony”.
Sheesh. Didn’t any of these people ever go to school?
George Conway needs fitting of a pink jumpsuit so the other prisoners know which side he bats for.
I don’t think George is going to be doing the batting …
I think Selzer should have a bright future on CNN.
I don’t think CNN has a bright future.
“Things disreputable politicians say for $100, Alex”
I will be moving on “to other ventures and opportunities.”
Nice looking girl and her professional training was perfect for knowing nothing but saying everything, with authority. To wit, Ann vs DOKTOR Jill?
At least Ann has a real degree and is well suited for perpetuating useless academic spawn in a manner that is consistent with her “being”.
“…a Bachelor of Arts in Speech and Dramatics Arts in 1978.[7] She then earned a Ph.D. in Communication Theory…”
Essentially, a singer who cannot sing. But, she knows girls who can sing.
Leftistrationale:
“16 wrong out of 100 isn’t bad. That’s an 84, which is a B. It could even be an A if we were grading on a curve in a public school.”
I think that I found some of the missing $B.
I read that she is going on a national speaking tour with Harris and Lizzy Cheney. “The 3 Losers Unchained” will be appearing at a college campus near you.
She should sue the Iowa voters who embarrassed her for like a billion dollars.
She decided ahead of the poll she was done.
She didn’t care about being right anymore.
She fixed her poll to give the result we saw.