It’s hard to believe that four more years have passed and election day 2024 is finally here. While there have been many polls suggesting that this is going to be a close election, I’m not sure I believe it. We’ll soon find out.
In the meantime, I have five suggestions for things to watch for early on tonight.
1. New Hampshire
New Hampshire has not voted Republican in a presidential election since it went for George W. Bush in 2004. That could change this year. Over the last few weeks, Donald Trump has held a rally in the state and high-profile Democrats like Bill Clinton and Joe Biden have campaigned there for Kamala Harris. All of this activity suggests that both sides believe the Granite State is in play.
Last night, just after midnight, Dixville Notch held their famous election vote and it was split, three for Trump and three for Harris. Biden won all six votes in 2020. New Hampshire’s voting results will likely be tallied and posted early in the evening. If the state goes for Trump, it could be indicative of a Trump win.
2. Virginia
Like New Hampshire, Virginia has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004, but multiple polls in recent months have shown the race to be very close there. Despite efforts by the Biden/Harris administration, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has fought to keep the voter rolls clean and accurate.
Also, don’t forget that Virginia has been ground zero for the parents’ rights movement in education. The people involved in that effort are surely voting for Trump.
Like New Hampshire, I expect Virginia’s election results to be posted in a timely fashion. If it goes for Trump, that should set off alarm bells at the Harris campaign headquarters.
3. Pennsylvania
We have been warned that Pennsylvania may need days to determine who won the state, but what if that doesn’t happen? What if the result is so obvious that the race is called before midnight, as it should be? Philadelphia is the place to watch. If the race is even close there, the Keystone State is likely going to Trump. If the state totals are close and they announce that they are going to need to count votes for days, we will know what that means. It won’t mean that Trump will ultimately lose the state, but there will be an effort by Democrats to count their way to a win.
4. New Jersey
I do not expect Trump to win New Jersey, but I do expect it to be closer than many people assume. Think back to the 2021 governor race in New Jersey. Republican Jack Ciattarelli did better than anyone thought he would. At one point on election night, it even looked like Ciattarelli might win. If Trump does well in New Jersey, that could be an indicator. If he somehow pulls off the seemingly impossible and wins the Garden State, we will be in Trump landslide territory.
5. Liberal Media Mood
As you watch the election returns come in on your preferred media outlet, be sure to switch to CNN or MSNBC at some point. You will get a sense of how the election is going based purely on the mood of the people on the set. Remember that these networks are given information over the wires before the public. If the mood on these networks is somber or downright funereal, that will speak volumes about where things are going.
Also, watch for these networks to lay the groundwork for delayed results. They would love for nothing more than this to be dragged on for days. If states are being called quickly and decisively, that will bode well for Trump.
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