Election Results – President
We will update the results as they come in.
We will be covering the election results as meaningful numbers come in.
Our focus will be on the key swing states that will determine the outcome: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Plus two states of interest that may give us a sign of how the night is going (New Hampshire and Virginia), and Florida just because. NOT ALL STATES WILL FINALIZE TONIGHT, we have been warned.
General observations/updates will be at the bottom of this post. We have a separate post for Senate and House results.
You can follow along LIVE on these YouTube streams:
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Arizona (9 p.m. ET)
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Florida (7 p.m. ET., 8 p.m. in Pandhandle)
🔴BREAKING: Trump wins Florida
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 6, 2024
Georgia (7 p.m. ET)
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) November 6, 2024
With two thirds of the vote now reporting, Donald Trump has a 73% chance of winning Georgia. pic.twitter.com/3kSWkSlVwW
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2024
Michigan (9 p.m. ET most of the state)
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Nevada (10 p.m. Eastern)
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New Hampshire (8 p.m. ET)
Decision Desk HQ projects Kamala Harris wins the Presidential election in New Hampshire.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 6, 2024
North Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET)
BREAKING: TRUMP WINS NORTH CAROLINA – DDHQ
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 6, 2024
Pennsylvania (8 p.m. ET)
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Virginia (7 p.m. ET)
Decision Desk HQ projects Kamala Harris wins the Presidential election in Virginia.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 6, 2024
HOLY COW.
LOUDOUN COUNTY 9 POINT SWING RIGHT.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 6, 2024
Ohhhh mannnn!! pic.twitter.com/8LcEF1KcVm
— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) November 6, 2024
Wisconsin (9 p.https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1853964334277247070m. ET)
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GENERAL UPDATES:
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Comments
What I see is that pretty much everybody agrees Trump is winning, but all the Democrats are out ‘cautioning’ that we ‘may not know’ the results for days.
“Democrats are out ‘cautioning’ that we ‘may not know’ the results for days.”
Suddenly the Democrats are the party of caution.
Reply to Olinser.
Pennsylvania has a number of polling places that will not close until later.
Georgia too.
Future kids will read history books and wonder what happened between 2020 and 2024.
Biden “happened!”
Exit polls: “What are the top three issues that concern you?”
Conservatives/Republicans:
1. Economy
2. Immigration
3. Direction of the country.
Democrats:
1. Abortion
2. Abortion
3. Abortion
1a. Hitler
2a. Fascist
3a. Satan
Democrat stance. oops!
The interesting thing in Florida is how the independents break.
Particularly in Duval County.
CNN is reporting that in Georgia, independents are voting massively for Trump.
Exit polling showing Trump at 25% w black men and 9% w black women. In 2020 he was at 13% black men and 5% black women. IOW not just outperforming expectations but doing about 2x as well as in ’20 among all black voters. If it holds up…..gonna be a rough night for Harris.
That is big. No Repuyblican has polled that high since miod 1900s.
I believe these levels for a GoP Presidential candidate would be the best since LBJ /Great Society.
There is some indication that nationwide turnout will exceed 2020 levels. If that’s true and Trump still prevails, it will be a remarkable achievement. How remarkable? No GOP nominee has won the presidency when turnout was > 59% since 1956.
Correction: 1968.
VA is interesting, 45%+ in and Trump even+/- but the big d/prog counties in NOVA vote already in that tabulation. VA may, possibly be in play.
And ten minutes later DD HQ calls VA for Harris. Weird. 50% in to include NOVA and DJT up in raw vote total but called for Harris, oh well they make the big bucks and I’m an amateur.
They called Illinois with only 9% reported.
I know, I know.
But it is still wrong.
NH hasn’t been called. Harris was up big back in Sept. Trump looks to be running about 4% behind the performance of K Ayotte GoP candidate in the Gov race. That this hasn’t been called yet is very good news for DJT.
Now NH called for Harris…but it took way too long for any comfort for Harris team. She appears to be underperforming 4% what Biden did across the board. If that holds Nationwide Trump wins.
Only 35% of the vote is counted in NH though
50% of the votes counted and only 12,000 votes between them, the media call Virginia for Harris.
how?
Because shut up.
I don’t trust early calls like that. Unless you’re above 60-40 and a good chunk is in, I’m not going to say it’s a done deal.
agreed
polymarket.com, which I think is a major betting market, had Trump up 61/39 before any polls closed. It is 71/29 right now.
Polymarket and Kalshi are basically the only 2 ones worth looking at.
Since 2 PM Kalshi has gone from 57% Trump to 69% Trump, and Polymarket has gone from 62% Trump to 73% Trump.
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