In his most recent Substack, Professor Glenn Reynolds writes this is a “Schrodinger’s Election.”
By this, he means that polls show both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are winning.
My gut, for what (very little) it’s worth is that this election feels a lot more like 2016 than 2020. On election day that year, a lefty colleague asked me what I thought, and I said that if you went with the polls it would be a Clinton win, but that there was a pretty big “fuck you” factor out there that I didn’t think the polls captured. (Interestingly, she agreed). Helen, meanwhile, was sure Trump would win.This year I think the “fuck you” factor is much higher than 2016, and the polls less favorable to Harris than they were to Clinton. On the other hand Helen is pessimistic; she thinks it will be decided by cheating.Either of us could be right. What do you think? And, more importantly, what are you doing about it between now and Election Day?
The only prediction I am willing to make at this point is that I will enjoy a great deal of locally brewed craft beer on November 5th.
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