Professor Glenn Reynolds: Schrodinger’s Election With Two Potential Futures
“My gut, for what (very little) it’s worth is that this election feels a lot more like 2016 than 2020.”
In his most recent Substack, Professor Glenn Reynolds writes this is a “Schrodinger’s Election.”
By this, he means that polls show both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are winning.
My gut, for what (very little) it’s worth is that this election feels a lot more like 2016 than 2020. On election day that year, a lefty colleague asked me what I thought, and I said that if you went with the polls it would be a Clinton win, but that there was a pretty big “fuck you” factor out there that I didn’t think the polls captured. (Interestingly, she agreed). Helen, meanwhile, was sure Trump would win.
This year I think the “fuck you” factor is much higher than 2016, and the polls less favorable to Harris than they were to Clinton. On the other hand Helen is pessimistic; she thinks it will be decided by cheating.
Either of us could be right. What do you think? And, more importantly, what are you doing about it between now and Election Day?
The only prediction I am willing to make at this point is that I will enjoy a great deal of locally brewed craft beer on November 5th.
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Comments
There is no doubt the cheating will continue until many someones pay a price for it.
So, the lefty colleague thinks it will be decided by cheating, against Trump?
Not just cheating and disruptive events. When there is a 20-30 point gender gap (and it actually could be more than this), knowing the election outcome in advance is simply impossible. It all comes down to the difference between male and female turnout in the swing states, which opens the possibility that all the swing states won’t tilt the same direction. Local factors and state issues could make all the difference.
Trump is the only logical choice.
Cheating can take many forms, including forms that don’t directly involve votes. Slow-walking hurricane response in Trump voting areas is political gamesmanship that might work. The Democrats also could be confident that their impromptu foreign allies will do the dirty work for them. Even if the assassination teams fail to get Trump, they could do an EMP strike or more likely massive cyberattacks right before or on Election Day to disrupt in-person voting. As Trump voters vote mostly in person, that would let the Democrats run the table. And such an attack need not directly involve election machinery, either. A disruption of electrical power or communications could prevent polling places from functioning or prevent the poll workers from being able to check voters in. An attack that turns all traffic lights green at 6 AM on election day will cause millions of simultaneous high-speed t-bone wrecks with millions of deaths. They could also release a new pandemic, but that would have to be done right now, as there is only one month left.
I am voting as soon as the satellite voting locations open up a week from Saturday. It is too risky to wait until Nov 5 this year. There is too much that foreign powers could do to disrupt voting on a fixed day known far in advance, and the stakes are far too high for them not to do it.
Also, everyone’s social security number got compromised recently. And I do mean everybody’s. There is too much Leftists can do to muck up your voter registration online if they know your SSN. Voting early in-person, if you can, makes sense.