My First Assessment on October 7, 2023

At 8:05 p.m. Eastern on October 7, 2023, I gave my first assessment of the day’s attacks and the likely way forward.

The Hamas surprise attack on Israel has been murderous and brutal. The Islamic supremacist death cult psychopaths have brutalized civilians in manners worthy of ISIS.The Israeli official death toll as of this writing exceeds three hundred people killed, over 1000 wounded, and at least dozens taken hostage and kidnapped to Gaza. Palestinian civil society is ecstatic, with cheering crowds spitting on and defiling the bodies of the dead Israelis and tourists that have been dragged to Gaza.Israel has no choice but to extract a massive toll on Hamas and other terror groups who also participated. This is not going to be like prior conflicts, such as in 2014, where there was fighting but everyone knew from the start the fighting was over the terms of the ceasefire. Israel was content to leave Hamas in power, viewing the barbarians as the lesser of evils among the many Palestinian terror groups. That will change.The carnage and savagry will require Israel to decapitate Hamas. The old normal has to change.The hostages held in Gaza will not be recovered alive unless Israel gives major concessions and leaves Hamas in power. While of course Israel wants to get them back alive, Israeli military options are severely constrained if that is the goal. Hamas has grown comfortable taking hostages and using them as shields to temper Israeli military responses. The goals of toppling Hamas and getting the hostages back alive are not consistent. Israel faces a tough choice.Hamas prepares for these conflicts with international media and political opinion in mind. Western academics, purported “human rights” groups, and pundits, are an important part of Hamas’ war effort. Hamas deliberately locates rocket launchers and other military assets in and among civilians, knowing that dead Gaza civilians serve a military purpose – to grow international pressure on Israel to hold back. The international media will mindlessly cite “Gaza health officials” without mentioning Hamas runs the Gaza health ministry and regularly lies about casualties as part of the war effort.We covered this tactic in the summer 2014 conflict, including how the main Gaza al-Shifa hospital served as a Hamas military facility and its parking lot as a rocket firing location. Given what we expect will happen in the coming weeks, it’s worth running the post again, Hamas hides in, under and around Gaza’s main hospital, and the media covers it up (Video).

I’d say I was pretty accurate, perhaps because I had covered so many of the prior conflicts.

My mind keeps coming back to Prof. Eugene Kontorovich’s October 12, 2023 statement:

Perhaps the greatest mercy Israel is showing to Gaza is not releasing to the public the full details of what was done by the invaders to their victims. Ostensibly for the sensitivities of the families, but also I think because what populace would be able to restrain themselves?

With all we know now, indeed.

Tags: Gaza, Gaza - 2023 War, Hamas

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