Mark Halperin Claims to Have Seen Private Polling and that Harris is ‘In Trouble’ in Swing States
“I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours, extremely bullish.”
Journalist Mark Halperin was doing a live streaming event on the election this week when he said that he has looked at some ‘private’ polling, which I take to mean internal campaign polling. He claims Harris is “in a lot of trouble” in the swing states.
Halperin claims Harris has serious issues in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Real Clear Politics provides a transcript:
HALPERIN: It’s not just Republicans, they have to pretend they can win the majority. They have to have a path to talk through.
For you Harris people on here complaining that we’re talking about problems in the Harris campaign, you’re welcome to put your head in the sand about it. If you want to go watch MSNBC primetime and hear how great things are going for the Harris campaign, you’re welcome to do that. But if you want to understand what’s actually happening, we’re here to tell you, I just saw some new private polling today.
That’s very robust private polling. She’s in a lot of trouble. Here’s how I framed it this morning in my newsletter. The conversation I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours, extremely bullish. You think of the seven battleground states, which ones is Harris in danger of losing? I would say Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. I’m not saying she’ll lose all six, but she’s in danger.
The only one that the Democrats say she’s not in danger of losing is the one I never say the name of because I can’t pronounce it, but it’s where Las Vegas is. You guys agree with me. She could lose any of those six.
I mean, she could lose all seven, but Democrats will tell you they’re worried about those six. They’re less worried about the seven. I don’t know any Trump person who says they’re worried about losing any of the seven.
Watch the whole thing below:
Mark Halperin on Harris' swing-state trajectory: “I just saw some new private polling today that’s very robust … She’s in a lot of trouble … The conversation I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances" @DailyCaller pic.twitter.com/s3e6pxEanF
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 8, 2024
This tracks with something Amie Parnes just wrote for The Hill:
Democrats start to hit the panic button
Democrats’ nerves are at an all-time high.
Two months ago — even a month ago — they were feeling bullish about Vice President Harris’s prospects of defeating former President Trump.
But now, with less than a month to go until Election Day, they’re increasingly worried about a number of issues plaguing the Democratic nominee’s campaign.
On Tuesday, there was grumbling from some Democrats about the vice president’s interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes.”
There’s also concern on everything from the static poll numbers in the race to the vice president’s messaging and even her standing with men — not just white men but Black and Hispanic men, too.
It’s hard to imagine the ferocity of the circular firing squad that will form among Democrats if Kamala Harris falls apart in the final stretch and loses the election. The people who forced Biden out of the race may have to go into witness protection.
Featured image via Twitter video.
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Comments
She’s in trouble with voters, not with votes.
Trump had to win well outside the margin of fraud.
She is in trouble because of her disastrous attempt to dunk on DeSantis and whatever that was she was trying to do on The View, Stern, Call Me Daddy, drinking a beer with Colbert and busting out with another fake accent this time Jamaican. People are seeing what an empty skirt she is with that woman beater beta male at her side and not liking it.
Michigan flipping red now. This is all whitmer’s fault.
…and the voters will be castigated then plagued with pestilence.
Nobody should get cocky. Remember the phantom “red wave” of 2022. An election that hinges on slight differences in turnout of single and divorced women v everyone else is incredibly unpredictable.
Agreed. Go into election day/month like we are behind. Still it is nice to see polling data begin to match up with anecdotal public sentiment.
in this article? I saw as much polling data as I saw evidence that Biden is lucid off camera.
Not in this article no, but it’s been out the last couple of days basically showing Trump/Vance not only ahead of where the campaigns were in ’16 and ’20 at this point but in an absolute lead in the swing states of PA, GA, NC, WI and AZ with MI iffy lean to Trump and NV iffy lean to Harris. More than one poll points to this. The question I have is have the pollsters adjusted the voter composition in samples to account for ‘hidden/shy’ DJT voters or not? If not then add 2.5% to GoP numbers to get a better but still conservative read on where the race is.
treat every one of these stories like it was a total like. I’ll believe today’s polls around November 20th or so and not a minute sooner.
The private polling data explains why Obama was in Pittsburgh today and is stumping for her for the next three weeks
At 61.5% in 2020, turnout based on voting-age population (VAP) was the 3rd-highest since they started measuring it back in 1932. You would have to go back to 1964 to see an election that equaled or surpassed 61.5%. I believe Trump is the first incumbent president in 100+ years to surpass his first election vote total and still lose reelection, which is one of the MANY statistical irregularities about 2020.
If turnout is again 60% or better, it’s historically not a great sign for Republicans considering we’ve lost 3 out of 4 elections when VAP has exceeded 60%. OTOH, Trump is doing better with so-called ‘low-propensity voters than the Democrat nominee,’ which is unusual for GOP nominees. So, maybe 2024 will be the year when voting irregularities finally benefit Republicans. Ultimately, if Harris generates more than 81.2M votes, no one will ever be able to convince me that they didn’t cheat. There aren’t 81.2M people voting for Harris.
They need Obama to make the sale. Is anyone buying? Or is it simply to save the base?
It seems improbable that Harris could actually win unless the race is fixed.
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