New poll from 2020’s most accurate pollster shows Trump up by 2.9 points
If the election were held today, Atlas calculates that Trump has a 75% chance of winning in the Electoral College. His odds improve if you take historical polling error into account.
Polling firm AtlasIntel, rated the most accurate pollster of the 2020 presidential election cycle, delivered some excellent news to Team Trump over the weekend.
Their latest survey, conducted on Sept. 11 and 12 (entirely after the debate), showed former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 50.9-48. The poll’s margin of error is 2 points.
When third party candidates were added to the mix, Trump’s advantage grew to 3.6%.
📊 ATLAS POLL – US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
In the scenario considering all candidates on the ballot, Trump's avantage is greater, at 3.6pp. Trump benefited more than Harris from RFK Jr.'s dropout from the race.
🔴 Trump: 50.9% (+3.2)
🔵 Harris: 47.3% (+1.2)
⚪ Others: 1.9% (-4.3) pic.twitter.com/K9rHJJSHne— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) September 14, 2024
The news from Atlas got even better. Harris currently leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head national polls by 1.7%. Based on that number, if the election were held today, Atlas calculates that Trump would have a 75% chance of winning in the Electoral College by a margin of 283.5-254.5.
However, when we account for the average polling error from the 2020 election cycle of 4.3%, which would put Trump in the lead by 2.6%, his probability of winning in the Electoral College increases to 99.9%. The predicted outcome under this scenario would mean a landslide for Trump—321 to 217.
People are 100% gonna say I am making this up so here you go. pic.twitter.com/Klqc7d2nTr
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 14, 2024
Media Bias/Fact Check, a website that rates pollsters on their political bias and credibility, classifies AtlasIntel as one of the “least biased” pollsters. According to this site, “these sources have minimal bias and use very few loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appeals to emotion or stereotypes). The reporting is factual and usually sourced. These are the most credible media sources.”
The report concludes, “Overall, we rate AtlasIntel as Least Biased based on polling that minimally favors the right. We also rate them as a high factual pollster based on a 2.7-star rating in predictive polling.”
As rosy as this scenario may sound, it’s not too far off (at least directionally) from what Democratic polling guru Nate Silver, who openly supports Harris, has reported.
On Saturday, his model put Trump’s probability of winning the Electoral College at 60.1% and Harris’s at 39.7%.
🚨 NEW Nate Silver 2024 Electoral College Forecast:
TRUMP: 60.1%
KAMALA: 39.7% pic.twitter.com/USQmbwZuvt— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 14, 2024
Silver’s latest (no tossup) map shows Trump winning the Electoral College by a margin of 312-226.
🚨 NEW 2024 election map, according to Nate Silver's election model (no tossup)
ELECTORAL COLLEGE:
🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226Silver Bulletin | Sept. 16 pic.twitter.com/i8bRru6gFY
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 16, 2024
The RCP polling averages track results from 18 separate pollsters, and the extent of their political bias varies.
As Hot Air’s Duane Patterson explained in a Monday post, “Of those 18, 14 of them over the course of the last decade have missed the actual results in favor of the Democrat candidate. Four missed in favor of the Republican. So if 78% of the polling consistently reports polling that overstates the final margin for Democrats, how much is that average miss? 4.6%. The least amount of error on behalf of the Democratic candidate is 2.2%, and the biggest miss is 6.1%, but the sweet spot for missing is just a touch over four-and-a-half.”
Patterson also provided an excellent explanation of why Democratic candidates typically lead in national polls.
He noted that approximately 165 million Americans voted in 2020. Based on Harris’s current national lead of 1.7%, that would mean she is ahead of Trump by roughly 2.8 million votes. Patterson wrote:
Take a look at how California voted. It’s as deep blue of a state as there is in the Union, and they voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden. The final margin, once they finally finished counting a couple months after Biden was sworn in (I exaggerate, but not by much), was 63-42. In raw vote totals, Biden netted 5.1 million more votes just in the Golden State than Donald Trump. Going back to the RCP average as of Sunday, if Kamala allegedly has a 2.8 million lead nationally, and would have roughly the same results out of California, you could actually make the case that if you were to take California out of the equation, Donald Trump is actually leading the national vote in the remaining 49 states by a little under 3 million votes.
The 2024 presidential race has been highly unusual, as we all know. Voters are still digesting Sunday’s news of a second assassination attempt on Trump. Democrats have been worrying out loud about how this will impact the election. Amazingly, some are trying to blame Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric for what Attorney General Merrick Garland wants us to refer to as the “incident,” as Mary Chastain wrote about on Monday.
The reality is that it’s the Democrats’ own violent rhetoric that brought on the assassination attempts. They’ve spent the past nine years telling Americans that he is as vile as Hitler and poses an existential threat to our “democracy.”
There was a reason why sales of George Orwell’s legendary novel “1984” topped the charts at Amazon and elsewhere in 2021. Acutely aware of where the Biden administration led the country, Orwell’s words, written in the 1940s, had suddenly become eerily prescient.
In one of the most memorable quotes from the book, the novel’s protagonist, Winston Smith, opines on the “Two Minutes Hate,” a brief period during which party members would gather to watch a film about the “enemy of the state,” Emmanuel Goldstein, and spew vitriol at him. Smith notes, “The horrible thing about the Two Minutes Hate was not that one was obliged to act a part, but that it was impossible to avoid joining in.”
Although the Democrat’s modern version of these hate sessions may be less overt than those of the Oceania party members, their intentions and the results are the same.
Here’s the Democrats’ version of “Two Minutes Hate”:
2.5 minutes of Democrats explicitly calling for using political vioIence.
They own this. pic.twitter.com/vMpVbmJYmc
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 16, 2024
Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a member of the Editorial Board at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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Comments
The media has truly whored themselves to get Harris across the line this year.
I suspect though that they don’t really need to try so hard because Democrats have put the hard yards in to fortify the election against wrong results!!
I’m more concerned about an October surprise. It used to be they waited until the end of the month to trigger Dem voter turnout on election day. Now with early voting and mail, I expect it right in the middle of the month, something dramatic and huge like Biden actually resigning (doubtful) or a negative health result so hordes of Dem MSM talking heads can wail “Do it for Joe!” and “Historic first!”
Biden passing would be a big boost.
Do it for Joe and the Hoe.
Positive momentum. As more info on the dirty ABC debate comes out and the internet destroys KH and ABC lies on crime, abortion and immigration the Dems will lose support from independents and enthusiasm from their base.
Trumps ad campaign is just starting and I suspect they will be on sports events and family oriented shows and will hit many targets that normally don’t follow politics (ie uniformed voters who know only what corporate Democrat news tells them).
Finally I think this second assasination attempt will further dampen enthusiasm for the Dem ticket from the top down.
I hope this poll is right.
If not, we face at least four more years of higher prices, more restrictions on firearms, gas, oil, and power shortages, boys in our daughters’ sports teams and locker rooms in schools, DEI requirements to apply for federal grants, racial quotas in federal contracts, and being forced to buy electric vehicles that don’t have the range to go out of town.
I wish Trump had Ronald Reagan’s charm and demeanor. But he doesn’t, and he’s all we’ve got to end the crazy things that are going on now and will continue if Harris wins.
I think he’s extremely dummy and has his own charm
That really was “funny” not dummy
My phone is a democrat plant
I’m
Calling Mossad
I hope it’s fair that I upvoted you both for the typo and for the mossad comment.
trump is better than rr…up to this point
leftists are communinstnazis and djt has come along at the right time in our history to stop them
Trump should be up by at least 10 percentage points with such a weak opponent as Harris. This election is still Trump’s to lose.
So this before the LAST assassination attempt
Still, only 2.9%
Not enough, margin of cheat, needs to be 6% at least
It was also less than one week after the debate, before it really had a chance to be reflected in the polls.
I want to believe
that LI knows how I promised myself to only check the polls/odds once a week and will therefore run these articles every Tuesday.
dont forget
cheating aside by the vote counters ( if possible) MORE BLACK MALES would/will vote for trump than ever before in recent years for a non dem like the programming tells them to
Only covering polls that confirm the opinion you wants is a cope here is a place you could see all of them
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
All polls have advantages and disadvantages and poll different groups with different levels of accuracy thanks to their methodology.
The only way for them to give you a good picture is if you take all of the results together in which case current results are Harris +2 (margin of error territory) with every battleground state also being margin of error territory.
For polling bias Trump is doing better in polls commissioned by the New York Times than New York Post. These are not attempts to influence the outcome.
Looking at multiple polls to get a better handle is probably a good idea….so long as we also factor in the historical deviation from election results by the same polling outfits. No polling outfit is perfect but some are much better than others. If Poll A misses by 1% of the total vote and Poll B misses by 2% of the total vote that’s a huge difference in accuracy between them. Unfortunately some folks will choose to believe there was a single percentage point of difference between them in their accuracy and thus reliability for future predictions.
I don’t react to “good” polls any more than “bad” polls. I look at them all as either Operation Demoralize or Operation Sit Back on Your Ass and Coast, Nor do I participate in them.
That having been said, the only real surprise to me on SIlver’s map is Virginia. I had higher hopes for them.
Well, if DJT had chosen Youngkin then it might be a game. But then the assassination crowd might think of it as a win-win.
In other words you are unwilling to accept data or information.
Story checks out you are backing neo-nazism being brought into the mainstream by refusing to condemn Tucker Carlson.
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