New poll from 2020’s most accurate pollster shows Trump up by 2.9 points
If the election were held today, Atlas calculates that Trump has a 75% chance of winning in the Electoral College. His odds improve if you take historical polling error into account.
Polling firm AtlasIntel, rated the most accurate pollster of the 2020 presidential election cycle, delivered some excellent news to Team Trump over the weekend.
Their latest survey, conducted on Sept. 11 and 12 (entirely after the debate), showed former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 50.9-48. The poll’s margin of error is 2 points.
When third party candidates were added to the mix, Trump’s advantage grew to 3.6%.
ATLAS POLL – US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
In the scenario considering all candidates on the ballot, Trump's avantage is greater, at 3.6pp. Trump benefited more than Harris from RFK Jr.'s dropout from the race.Trump: 50.9% (+3.2)
Harris: 47.3% (+1.2)
Others: 1.9% (-4.3) pic.twitter.com/K9rHJJSHne
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) September 14, 2024
The news from Atlas got even better. Harris currently leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head national polls by 1.7%. Based on that number, if the election were held today, Atlas calculates that Trump would have a 75% chance of winning in the Electoral College by a margin of 283.5-254.5.
However, when we account for the average polling error from the 2020 election cycle of 4.3%, which would put Trump in the lead by 2.6%, his probability of winning in the Electoral College increases to 99.9%. The predicted outcome under this scenario would mean a landslide for Trump—321 to 217.
People are 100% gonna say I am making this up so here you go. pic.twitter.com/Klqc7d2nTr
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 14, 2024
Media Bias/Fact Check, a website that rates pollsters on their political bias and credibility, classifies AtlasIntel as one of the “least biased” pollsters. According to this site, “these sources have minimal bias and use very few loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appeals to emotion or stereotypes). The reporting is factual and usually sourced. These are the most credible media sources.”
The report concludes, “Overall, we rate AtlasIntel as Least Biased based on polling that minimally favors the right. We also rate them as a high factual pollster based on a 2.7-star rating in predictive polling.”
As rosy as this scenario may sound, it’s not too far off (at least directionally) from what Democratic polling guru Nate Silver, who openly supports Harris, has reported.
On Saturday, his model put Trump’s probability of winning the Electoral College at 60.1% and Harris’s at 39.7%.
NEW Nate Silver 2024 Electoral College Forecast:
TRUMP: 60.1%
KAMALA: 39.7% pic.twitter.com/USQmbwZuvt— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 14, 2024
Silver’s latest (no tossup) map shows Trump winning the Electoral College by a margin of 312-226.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE:
Silver Bulletin | Sept. 16 pic.twitter.com/i8bRru6gFY
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 16, 2024
The RCP polling averages track results from 18 separate pollsters, and the extent of their political bias varies.
As Hot Air’s Duane Patterson explained in a Monday post, “Of those 18, 14 of them over the course of the last decade have missed the actual results in favor of the Democrat candidate. Four missed in favor of the Republican. So if 78% of the polling consistently reports polling that overstates the final margin for Democrats, how much is that average miss? 4.6%. The least amount of error on behalf of the Democratic candidate is 2.2%, and the biggest miss is 6.1%, but the sweet spot for missing is just a touch over four-and-a-half.”
Patterson also provided an excellent explanation of why Democratic candidates typically lead in national polls.
He noted that approximately 165 million Americans voted in 2020. Based on Harris’s current national lead of 1.7%, that would mean she is ahead of Trump by roughly 2.8 million votes. Patterson wrote:
Take a look at how California voted. It’s as deep blue of a state as there is in the Union, and they voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden. The final margin, once they finally finished counting a couple months after Biden was sworn in (I exaggerate, but not by much), was 63-42. In raw vote totals, Biden netted 5.1 million more votes just in the Golden State than Donald Trump. Going back to the RCP average as of Sunday, if Kamala allegedly has a 2.8 million lead nationally, and would have roughly the same results out of California, you could actually make the case that if you were to take California out of the equation, Donald Trump is actually leading the national vote in the remaining 49 states by a little under 3 million votes.
The 2024 presidential race has been highly unusual, as we all know. Voters are still digesting Sunday’s news of a second assassination attempt on Trump. Democrats have been worrying out loud about how this will impact the election. Amazingly, some are trying to blame Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric for what Attorney General Merrick Garland wants us to refer to as the “incident,” as Mary Chastain wrote about on Monday.
The reality is that it’s the Democrats’ own violent rhetoric that brought on the assassination attempts. They’ve spent the past nine years telling Americans that he is as vile as Hitler and poses an existential threat to our “democracy.”
There was a reason why sales of George Orwell’s legendary novel “1984” topped the charts at Amazon and elsewhere in 2021. Acutely aware of where the Biden administration led the country, Orwell’s words, written in the 1940s, had suddenly become eerily prescient.
In one of the most memorable quotes from the book, the novel’s protagonist, Winston Smith, opines on the “Two Minutes Hate,” a brief period during which party members would gather to watch a film about the “enemy of the state,” Emmanuel Goldstein, and spew vitriol at him. Smith notes, “The horrible thing about the Two Minutes Hate was not that one was obliged to act a part, but that it was impossible to avoid joining in.”
Although the Democrat’s modern version of these hate sessions may be less overt than those of the Oceania party members, their intentions and the results are the same.
Here’s the Democrats’ version of “Two Minutes Hate”:
2.5 minutes of Democrats explicitly calling for using political vioIence.
They own this. pic.twitter.com/vMpVbmJYmc
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 16, 2024
Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a member of the Editorial Board at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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Comments
The media has truly whored themselves to get Harris across the line this year.
I suspect though that they don’t really need to try so hard because Democrats have put the hard yards in to fortify the election against wrong results!!
I’m more concerned about an October surprise. It used to be they waited until the end of the month to trigger Dem voter turnout on election day. Now with early voting and mail, I expect it right in the middle of the month, something dramatic and huge like Biden actually resigning (doubtful) or a negative health result so hordes of Dem MSM talking heads can wail “Do it for Joe!” and “Historic first!”
Biden passing would be a big boost.
Do it for Joe and the Hoe.
A big boost to who?
A big boost for the collective IQ of the gubmint.
I am expecting an October Surprise that is far more of a threat. If Trump is ahead in poll averages in mid-October, I expect them to release Bird Flu to a very large crowd of people to start a new pandemic. If infected cow milk is disseminated to huge numbers of people, the virus will evolve in a random few of them to become human-human transmissible, and then about 60 days later they will have the justification for a new national emergency. They will use those emergency powers to ensure that Trump can’t take office in January, probably by ensuring that the Congress is Dem, so they can disqualify Trump under 14A.3.
Vote in-person as early as possible. 10/8 in Ohio. I’ll be there.
Positive momentum. As more info on the dirty ABC debate comes out and the internet destroys KH and ABC lies on crime, abortion and immigration the Dems will lose support from independents and enthusiasm from their base.
Trumps ad campaign is just starting and I suspect they will be on sports events and family oriented shows and will hit many targets that normally don’t follow politics (ie uniformed voters who know only what corporate Democrat news tells them).
Finally I think this second assasination attempt will further dampen enthusiasm for the Dem ticket from the top down.
I hope this poll is right.
If not, we face at least four more years of higher prices, more restrictions on firearms, gas, oil, and power shortages, boys in our daughters’ sports teams and locker rooms in schools, DEI requirements to apply for federal grants, racial quotas in federal contracts, and being forced to buy electric vehicles that don’t have the range to go out of town.
I wish Trump had Ronald Reagan’s charm and demeanor. But he doesn’t, and he’s all we’ve got to end the crazy things that are going on now and will continue if Harris wins.
I think he’s extremely dummy and has his own charm
That really was “funny” not dummy
My phone is a democrat plant
I’m
Calling Mossad
I hope it’s fair that I upvoted you both for the typo and for the mossad comment.
trump is better than rr…up to this point
leftists are communinstnazis and djt has come along at the right time in our history to stop them
Trump should be up by at least 10 percentage points with such a weak opponent as Harris. This election is still Trump’s to lose.
Concern troll is again concerned.
News at 11.
Oh.
It’s you again.
I worry that if Democrats get another four years their radical changes will be difficult to reverse.
Try “impossible.” Impossible.
So this before the LAST assassination attempt
Still, only 2.9%
Not enough, margin of cheat, needs to be 6% at least
It was also less than one week after the debate, before it really had a chance to be reflected in the polls.
I want to believe
that LI knows how I promised myself to only check the polls/odds once a week and will therefore run these articles every Tuesday.
I can’t help myself. I check the polls several times a day!
Just close the windows & apps. They want your clicks.
dont forget
cheating aside by the vote counters ( if possible) MORE BLACK MALES would/will vote for trump than ever before in recent years for a non dem like the programming tells them to
Only covering polls that confirm the opinion you wants is a cope here is a place you could see all of them
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
All polls have advantages and disadvantages and poll different groups with different levels of accuracy thanks to their methodology.
The only way for them to give you a good picture is if you take all of the results together in which case current results are Harris +2 (margin of error territory) with every battleground state also being margin of error territory.
For polling bias Trump is doing better in polls commissioned by the New York Times than New York Post. These are not attempts to influence the outcome.
Looking at multiple polls to get a better handle is probably a good idea….so long as we also factor in the historical deviation from election results by the same polling outfits. No polling outfit is perfect but some are much better than others. If Poll A misses by 1% of the total vote and Poll B misses by 2% of the total vote that’s a huge difference in accuracy between them. Unfortunately some folks will choose to believe there was a single percentage point of difference between them in their accuracy and thus reliability for future predictions.
In defense of the polling firms at issue is the makeup of the electorate changes each time. Every senior high school class that graduates represents an electorate shift to whatever that generation thinks.
If only the 2012 voters could vote Trump would be ahead by at least 10 and the swing states would all be far beyond the margin of error.
He would probably also be winning if you restricted the vote to 2016 eligible voters only.
Unfortunately pollsters have to keep up with new generations voting each presidential cycle and have to come up with new methodologies to account for new voters.
Even going by only the ones who did it better last time Trump is winning by 1 at 46% in Georgia (Trafalgar). Georgia is a must win state (I don’t think there is another path to the White House for Trump. He does a lot better in Georgia than Michigan or Pennsylvania).
The right ones from last time also aren’t always right next time. Remember when Rasmussen was a complete joke for being the only one to predict a Romney victory in 2012 and getting each swing state wrong (even North Carolina which went the way they said was closer than they thought)? It fixed itself and predicted every state in 2016 correctly.
If pollsters tried to replicate what the 2020 electorate would do today Trump would probably have an edge in the polls (nowhere near what he would have if it did something crazier and tried to replicate the 2012 electorate) and we would be shocked election day because the Gen Z vote will be a much larger share of the vote in 2024 than 2020.
If you go to the Trafalgar Website you will find that they are advertising to businesses who want their services to gain information on the mood of the public. It is the same with others. If they aren’t trying to do their best in making a methodology to capture the current electorate they are dooming their firms to bankruptcy. These are men and women who will be out of a job if they can’t produce things that come close to reality.
True though that’s where the methodology of the polling firm comes in. Some voters are more difficult to reach or decline to answer. Then there’s the choices of the polling firm in what they present as a representative sample. When they consistently over sample d/prog their poll is gonna be inaccurate. It’s on them to make it work just as every other business must adjust to changing market conditions.
I don’t react to “good” polls any more than “bad” polls. I look at them all as either Operation Demoralize or Operation Sit Back on Your Ass and Coast, Nor do I participate in them.
That having been said, the only real surprise to me on SIlver’s map is Virginia. I had higher hopes for them.
Well, if DJT had chosen Youngkin then it might be a game. But then the assassination crowd might think of it as a win-win.
In other words you are unwilling to accept data or information.
Story checks out you are backing neo-nazism being brought into the mainstream by refusing to condemn Tucker Carlson.
The Azov Brigade was supported by the globalist, neocon, forever war, big gov’t not by TC.
At most Azov is 2500 people. It has no influence of the Zelensky government either.
I fully condemn them anyway. I am glad that NATO banned them from receiving either Nato training or gear.
I was also extremely harsh on Tim Walz for having a relationship with a neo-Nazi Imam.
And Kamala Harris for having secret meetings with the mayor of Dearborn.
In light of that I would be an utter hypocrite not to condemn Tucker for exactly the same thing particularly when he unlike Azov is a threat to bring Nazism into the mainstream.
I am an equal opportunity hater of Hitler Apologists.
There are a lot of Jewish voters in PA a swing state that is at best in margin of error. That alone makes it worth keeping the Republican Party innocent of the charge of only caring about anti-Semites who are on the leftwing side.
TC isn’t a Nazi nor sympathetic to Nazi atrocities as far as I have seen but maybe I missed the direct evidence of these things and you can present them. The man has a podcast and interviews all sorts of.folks discussing all sorts of topics. Interviewing a person and agreeing with that person’s views are two different things. Unless you have evidence comprised of direct actions or statements where TC is on record supporting Nazi views I ain’t buying it.
Put a cork in your incessant slander, Danny, or I’ll cork it for you.
It isn’t a slander jackass you are backing Holocaust denial and claiming Churchill not Hitler was the bad guy of WW2 by sticking to Tucker Carlson.
You are at best morally bankrupt.
By the way it isn’t slander if it is true. You said a poll that shows Trump winning means it is operation keep you at home complacent, and that if it shows Trump is losing it is operation demoralize……
Yes that means reliable data means nothing to you.
Similar to how the Holocaust and American exceptionalism and heroism in WW2 ,means nothing to you.
Right did you forget Hitler declared war on this country?
That’s quite a stretch there, Slick.
You’ve built such a series of straw men that you should probably stay away from an open flame.
The man simply said he doesn’t react to polls, and somehow you’ve transmogrified this into “morally bankrupt” Henry becoming the new iteration of Literally Hitler.
You should stop while you’re only slightly behind.
steve59
1. Yes rejecting polling does mean he is rejecting data on what people think
2. Nothing I said about Tucker isn’t true and by not even trying to debunk it (because you know it is true) you revealed yourself as one of the assholes who is fine with Nazism brought into the mainstream by Tucker Carlson.
I am glad we have a public square because I wouldn’t know you are pro-Nazi otherwise.
TLDR version
The pro-Nazi ideology is something that if you promote you are an asshole, and if you defend promoting you are also an asshole.
Glad Babylon Bee and others on the right have shown integrity.
I would say disappointed in you but the comments section here is not a place to go for faith in humanity.
@steves59
” I look at them all as either Operation Demoralize or Operation Sit Back on Your Ass and Coast”
How right you are he totally is willing to accept data showing what Americans currently think.
He is openly a defender of Holocaust Denier Tucker Carlson.
If you are bringing on Holocaust Deniers to bring David Irving’s ideas into the mainstream yes the Hitler word is correct to use.
What tripe.
You seem to have mastered the art of hyperbole.
@Danny it’s actually you pretending Tucker is any of that without any evidence at all.
How about the fucking promotion of a Holocaust Denier he had on his show as he nodded in agreement with that fucking holocaust denier and agreed that everything you know about WW2 is just heroic mythology?
How about that?
How about the idea that Hitler was just being merciful as he killed millions in the camps? Said on Tucker’s show with his agreeement.
You could worship Tucker just understand it makes you a little piece of shit at best. Why the fuck are you on a Jewish owned property if you are willing to stand up for Holocaust deniers like Tucker Carlson who are actively promoting clones of David Irving?
I am not holding back you sir are the reason people fear racism not the Democrats, not Trump, not some transnational elite YOU.
Tucker interviewed a man with different ideas than his own. You imputing that guy’s views onto Tucker is as spurious as the rest of the insults in your post.
It’s weird how you link to none of your ‘proof’.
Which you know because he told you this is the most important and honest historian of our time, and he did not act like he was a Dutch Historian who feels elites needing to pay more applies to Tucker as much as it does to Davos?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_nFI2Zb7qE
Tucker pushes back if he disapproves of a guest.
There is no way to call someone the greatest and most honest of all historians of our time without being a backer of that person.
The entire post is true sorry you are a Tucker worshipping piece of shit. Nothing like learning that my side is willing to look the other way as Tucker Carlson promotes actual Nazism.
Once again you look at how Tucker treats guests he doesn’t agree with (from his time at Fox) or even look at his disrespect for Mike Pence to his face.
You haven’t any basis for Tucker disagrees with the person he calls the worlds greatest historian.
You do however utterly disgust me. The whole “MUUUH ESTABLLLIIISHHHHHMENNNNTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!” right could do with a good ending. That it can’t disassociate with actual Nazis doesn’t imply it means anything besides personality cult.
I don’t want to ever see you even think about discussing anti-Semitism again while you are running interference for Tucker Carlson of all people.
Reality Check – most presidential polls are within the margin of error, and this is the first post-Dobbs presidential election. The turnout models used by all pollsters could be dead wrong. For the last 2 years, the Democrats outperformed their polls, sometimes by a lot. If Kamala pulls a rabbit out of her hat on Nov 5, it will be because lots of younger women who don’t normally vote at all, voted. The most important number that will decide the election is the turnout of single white women, since they vote D+40. Black female turnout matters second, as they vote D+90, but are far fewer in number. The turnout of everyone else matters third.
Everyone will have high turnout Trump is running he is a universal turnout machine.
I hope this is accurate because it’s been feeling hopeless lately. Now he just has to survive until November and with 2 assassination attempts , it looks bleak.
Let’s be honest: the fact that Harris is this close tells us the country is dying. She shouldn’t be within 40 points of him. She’s vacuous as hell.
This is the correct lesson to learn from this abomination of an election cycle. Keep this in mind, in 1988 GHWB won 60% of the white vote and it gave him 40-states and 426 Electoral Votes.
In 2020, Trump won 58% of the white vote (a 1-point improvement from 2016 and only 2-points worse than Bush) and that only allowed him to win 25-states and 232 Electoral Votes.
Our elections have become sectarian, divided largely along racial lines. If the day after Election Day, Trump has won 20% or more of the black vote, there may be some tiny glimmer of hope the sectarian division is cracking. But, I’ll believe it when I see it.
Well, Joe did say he was going to choose a token.
It’s important to underscore how the Dhimmi-crats’ use of, and, enthusiasm for, mail-in ballots is transparently intended to facilitate and enable both voter fraud, and, tabulation fraud.
The inability of precincts to tabulate mail-in ballots in a timely and efficient manner means that Americans go to bed with contested states unable to project a winner. The mail-in ballots are intended to sow uncertainty and confusion in the tabulation process, and, undermine projected outcomes.
Then, after the Dhimmi-crat Party bigwigs decide where they need a boost, the precincts will magically discover sacks of previously undiscovered mail-in ballots, that coincidentally favor the Dhimmi-crat ticket, by a margin of twenty to one.
You’re absolutely correct it’s transparently intended to facilitate and enable fraud. As incontrovertible proof that Election Night dysfunction is a CHOICE, all the red states, particularly the giant red states of FL & TX, will have ALL their votes counted within hours of polls closing.
Biden beat Trump by 5.1M-votes in California. That represents almost 77% of Biden’s NATIONAL advantage in the National Popular Vote. When you consider the ‘lopsideness’ of IL & NY as well, Trump could almost certainly lose the NPV by as much 3-points and still win the election. When Clinton lost in 2016, her NPV margin was 2-points. And, if you exclude CA entirely, Trump would have won the NPV that year by almost 1M-votes.
This just underscores the increasing irrelevance of national polls. As red states become redder and blue states bluer with the election really only being contested in less than a dozen battleground states, national polls are essentially meaningless.
I start by saying that I have cast write-in votes for prez since ’16 and will do so again this year. And in ’16, I won opposing bets: One in June that Trump would be elected, and the other in October that Hillary would win the popular vote but by less than 4%. She won by 2.1%. Won 4 grass-fed steaks for bet #1, and dinner for 2 on bet #2.
I do not regard any one poll as definitive, although I do take notice if a partisan-leaning poll points in the opposite direction. To judge partisan lean, I use Nate Silver’s pollster ratings that show a “mean reverted bias” toward either party.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin
My main source for polling is the Real Clear Politics polling average.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
But I adjust that number by +2.7% for Trump to reflect Trump’s historical outperformance of the RCP average, which was +2.5% in ’16 and +2.9% in ’20.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton
Right now, Harris is +2% in the RCP average.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Using the aforementioned adjustment, I put Trump at +0.7% — well within the margin of error. Beyond that, I note that the current RCP average is titled strongly toward pollsters who score +D in Silver’s ratings.
In any case, even though Atlas scores slightly pro-D, and allegedly was the “most accurate” in 2020, I don’t put the level of stock in one poll that this article does.
Made me look. The betting odds have shifted to Harris since the debate, of course it is very close.
I looked for betting odds in ’16 and ’20 and couldn’t find them, so I can’t know how to regard that indicator either way.