The past seven weeks have been demoralizing for former President Donald Trump supporters.
On July 20, Trump’s election to a second term looked like a sure bet. Following his calamitous debate performance the previous month, President Joe Biden’s poll numbers collapsed. After surviving an assassination attempt one week earlier and then presiding over one of the most uplifting and successful Republican National Conventions in history, Trump had built up a formidable lead in the polls. He was riding high.
But the next day, the Democrats pulled the great switcheroo. Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. With massive assistance from the legacy media, the Harris campaign managed to take a candidate once considered so weak as to be a “drag on the [Biden-Harris] ticket,” and elevated her to rockstar status.
Thus began the “Harris honeymoon.” Each new poll brought more good news for the former pariah. One month later, Harris led Trump both nationally and in several critical battleground states.
Unfortunately for Harris, some sanity among voters ultimately returned, and her unwarranted, upward trajectory began to slow. Survey results appear to have stabilized after moving sideways for a couple of weeks and even ticking down from their recent highs.
As of September 10, Harris leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls by 1.1%, down from a high of 1.9%. RCP’s current averages of polls in the battleground states are as follows: Arizona, Trump +1.6; Georgia, Trump +0.3; Michigan, Harris +1.2; Nevada, Harris +0.6; North Carolina, Trump +0.1; Pennsylvania, tie; and Wisconsin, Harris +1.5.
These numbers suggest the race is a toss up.
But a glance at Trump’s polling history tells a different story and has many pundits thinking this race just might be Trump’s to lose. Although Harris’s numbers are better than any of us would ever have imagined, Trump is currently polling significantly higher than he did in 2016 and 2020. The table below from RCP tells the story.
On this date in 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump in Michigan, +7.3; Nevada, +1.7; North Carolina, +0.8; Pennsylvania, +6.2; and Wisconsin, 5.3. Trump was narrowly ahead in Arizona by 1.7 and in Georgia by 1.6.
Trump eventually won Arizona by 4.1; Georgia, +5.7; Michigan, +0.3; North Carolina, +3.8; Pennsylvania, +1.2; and Wisconsin, +1.0. Clinton won Nevada by +2.4.
Based on this data, Trump outperformed the Sept. 10, 2016 polling averages as follows: Arizona +2.4; Georgia, +4.1; Michigan, +7.6; North Carolina, +4.6; Pennsylvania, +7.4; and Wisconsin, +6.3. Nevada was the single battleground state where Clinton outperformed expectations, and that was only by 0.7.
The average polling error in the seven battleground states in 2016 was 4.5%. And, naturally, it favored Clinton.
Although slightly less dramatic, the average polling error in the seven battleground states in 2020 was 3.1%. And, just as it had four years earlier, it favored the Democratic candidate.
Except for Georgia where Trump was ahead in the polls by 1.3 on this date in 2020, Biden led Trump in each battleground state as follows: Arizona, +5.7; Michigan, +4.2; Nevada, +7.5; North Carolina, +1.5; Pennsylvania, 4.3; and Wisconsin, +6.5.
Biden eventually won Arizona by 0.4; Georgia, 0.3; Michigan, 2.8; Nevada, 2.4; Pennsylvania, 1.2; and Wisconsin, 0.6.
Trump won North Carolina by 1.3.
Based on this data, Trump outperformed the Sept. 10, 2020 polling averages as follows: Arizona, +5.3; Michigan, +1.4; Nevada, +5.1; North Carolina, +2.8; Pennsylvania, +3.1; and Wisconsin, +5.9.
In Georgia, Trump underperformed by 1.6.
In the tweet below, independent journalist Michael Tracey compares Pew national polls from this date in 2016, 2020, and 2024. The differences between today and both 2016 and 2020 are stark.
Although the Trump campaign can take heart from this data, his victory is far from assured. The shocks in this race just keep on coming.
A lot is riding on tonight’s showdown in Philadelphia for both candidates. America will be watching.
Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a member of the Editorial Board at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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