Donald Trump’s Polling Numbers are Far Better Than They Look
Although Harris’s numbers are better than any of us would ever have imagined, Trump is drastically outperforming his poll numbers from both 2016 or 2020.
The past seven weeks have been demoralizing for former President Donald Trump supporters.
On July 20, Trump’s election to a second term looked like a sure bet. Following his calamitous debate performance the previous month, President Joe Biden’s poll numbers collapsed. After surviving an assassination attempt one week earlier and then presiding over one of the most uplifting and successful Republican National Conventions in history, Trump had built up a formidable lead in the polls. He was riding high.
But the next day, the Democrats pulled the great switcheroo. Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. With massive assistance from the legacy media, the Harris campaign managed to take a candidate once considered so weak as to be a “drag on the [Biden-Harris] ticket,” and elevated her to rockstar status.
Thus began the “Harris honeymoon.” Each new poll brought more good news for the former pariah. One month later, Harris led Trump both nationally and in several critical battleground states.
Unfortunately for Harris, some sanity among voters ultimately returned, and her unwarranted, upward trajectory began to slow. Survey results appear to have stabilized after moving sideways for a couple of weeks and even ticking down from their recent highs.
As of September 10, Harris leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls by 1.1%, down from a high of 1.9%. RCP’s current averages of polls in the battleground states are as follows: Arizona, Trump +1.6; Georgia, Trump +0.3; Michigan, Harris +1.2; Nevada, Harris +0.6; North Carolina, Trump +0.1; Pennsylvania, tie; and Wisconsin, Harris +1.5.
These numbers suggest the race is a toss up.
But a glance at Trump’s polling history tells a different story and has many pundits thinking this race just might be Trump’s to lose. Although Harris’s numbers are better than any of us would ever have imagined, Trump is currently polling significantly higher than he did in 2016 and 2020. The table below from RCP tells the story.
On this date in 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump in Michigan, +7.3; Nevada, +1.7; North Carolina, +0.8; Pennsylvania, +6.2; and Wisconsin, 5.3. Trump was narrowly ahead in Arizona by 1.7 and in Georgia by 1.6.
Trump eventually won Arizona by 4.1; Georgia, +5.7; Michigan, +0.3; North Carolina, +3.8; Pennsylvania, +1.2; and Wisconsin, +1.0. Clinton won Nevada by +2.4.
Based on this data, Trump outperformed the Sept. 10, 2016 polling averages as follows: Arizona +2.4; Georgia, +4.1; Michigan, +7.6; North Carolina, +4.6; Pennsylvania, +7.4; and Wisconsin, +6.3. Nevada was the single battleground state where Clinton outperformed expectations, and that was only by 0.7.
The average polling error in the seven battleground states in 2016 was 4.5%. And, naturally, it favored Clinton.
Although slightly less dramatic, the average polling error in the seven battleground states in 2020 was 3.1%. And, just as it had four years earlier, it favored the Democratic candidate.
Except for Georgia where Trump was ahead in the polls by 1.3 on this date in 2020, Biden led Trump in each battleground state as follows: Arizona, +5.7; Michigan, +4.2; Nevada, +7.5; North Carolina, +1.5; Pennsylvania, 4.3; and Wisconsin, +6.5.
Biden eventually won Arizona by 0.4; Georgia, 0.3; Michigan, 2.8; Nevada, 2.4; Pennsylvania, 1.2; and Wisconsin, 0.6.
Trump won North Carolina by 1.3.
Based on this data, Trump outperformed the Sept. 10, 2020 polling averages as follows: Arizona, +5.3; Michigan, +1.4; Nevada, +5.1; North Carolina, +2.8; Pennsylvania, +3.1; and Wisconsin, +5.9.
In Georgia, Trump underperformed by 1.6.
Data Source: RealClearPolitics
This Day in History: September 10
In the tweet below, independent journalist Michael Tracey compares Pew national polls from this date in 2016, 2020, and 2024. The differences between today and both 2016 and 2020 are stark.
Trump is polling better at this point in 2024 than either of the previous two elections, by a significant margin:
Pew poll, September 2024
Trump: 49
Harris: 49Pew poll, September 2020
Trump: 42
Biden: 52Pew poll, September 2016
Trump: 39
Clinton: 46— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) September 9, 2024
Although the Trump campaign can take heart from this data, his victory is far from assured. The shocks in this race just keep on coming.
A lot is riding on tonight’s showdown in Philadelphia for both candidates. America will be watching.
Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a member of the Editorial Board at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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Comments
I don’t trust the numbers. Vote as early as possible and work like he’s down by 10 points.
Voting on voting day is more likely to be counted.
Depends on how is counting which ballots.
Until they sabotage the voting machines like they did in Arizona
Or illegally count ballots in a closed room after kicking out the Republicans.
we will ONLY KNOW what the msm tells us to
only know
Cheating is more refined though so dems will get the votes needed. It’s kept easy to cheat by law. It’s the system design.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the MSM tells us, on election day, that Trump is WAY ahead or WAY behind so we don’t need to go and vote.
Then they use Zuckerbucks (or Pac money) to call up all the Harris voters and take them to the polls.
I received an email from a pollster a few days ago, there is no upside in answering them. Quite often I think they are meant to drive a to trick people from voting.
As soon as Harris makes a single peep during his opening remarks Trump needs to turn and look at her and say “I am speaking”. I think she will dissolve like The Wicked Witch of the West.
Ironically, since her mike will be turned off, he can do it even if she just moves her mouth.
This election will be decided by less than 1 percent of American voters. They are the Independents and Undecideds in the swing states. Some political scientists are saying that the number of these voters is 30,000 or less. And I guarantee you that not a single one of these voters is reading or following the commentators here at LI, or for that matter the commentators over at Powerline, Instapundit, Breitbart, Conservative Tree-House, Gateway Pundit, etc, So keep on pontificating all you want, because absolutely nothing you say or post here will make any difference whatsoever in the outcome of the election.
So now potential undecided voters won’t be turned off by comments here, JR? It seems that the concern you’ve posted here more times than I can count is as fake as your quotes.
Like usual, where ever you go, someone will have to have one of those shovels used to clean up a stall.
Wrong again Junior.
I have stated many times that I am an independent, and the sites you mention, most of them I frequent.
This is true for most of my family, who are independent, and friends, who are independent or republican.
We are not deaf, dumb, and blind, nor are we ignorant.
“So keep on pontificating all you want, because absolutely nothing you say or post here will make any difference whatsoever in the outcome of the election.”
Jeeze, would you make up your mind already?
As Paddy noted, you’re usually concern-trolling about how inflammatory posts here will drive off independents. NOW, you’re saying the exact opposite.
Tell me you’re really a 16-year-old girl without telling me you’re a 16-year-old girl.
Democrats outperformed their polls since the Dobbs decision in 2022, probably because that decision motivated previous non-voters to show up and vote Democrat. The outcome of this election is anybody’s guess.
Illegals
“The past seven weeks have been demoralizing for former President Donald Trump supporters.”
Only the very silly ones.
We already know not to believe White House spokespeople, the federal “health” machine, the Department of “Justice,” or the immigration “control” establishment.
We definitely don’t believe the Democrat-owned press.
Why do you think we give any credence to what “pollsters” claim?
Especially since their claims would never see the light of day if they weren’t pre-approved by that same Democrat-owned press,
These are the same people who predicted a Hillary slam-dunk.
Operation Demoralize may piss us off mightily… but it doesn’t demoralize us because there’s nothing in it to believe. It’s all propaganda, gaslight, and mummery.
Ditto.
Or should I say MAGAdittos? Okay I will.
As if those numbers are trustworthy. The Democrat media is willing to lie to your face regarding all manner of issues, so why should I believe their poll numbers?