I don’t usually listen to podcasts, other than the Legal Insurrection Podcast.
But I saw linked on X (Twitter) today a podcast with Robert Cahahly of Trafalgar Group together with Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage. I always listen carefully to what Cahahly says not because he is clairvoyant, but because he doesn’t spin things and his polling of the presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 was excellent (the 2022 midterms, not so much). I’m less familiar with Towery and InsiderAdvantage, but if this podcast is any indication, he’s also a straight shooter.
Trafalger/Insider Advantage just released their most recent Battleground Polls, All surveys were conducted August 6-8.
InsiderAdvantage: Surveys of 800 likely voters (details will appear on InsiderAdvantage.com to come).MichiganHarris: 49%Trump: 47%Other: 2%No opinion/undecided: 2%WisconsinTrump: 49%Harris: 48%Other: 2%No opinion/undecided: 1%Trafalgar Group: Surveys of 1000 likely voters (details to come on Trafalgar X Page @Trafalgar_groupPennsylvaniaTrump: 46%Harris: 44%Other: 5%No opinion/Undecided: 5%ArizonaTrump:48%Harris: 47%Other: 4%No opinion/undecided: 1%NevadaTrump: 48%Harris: 45%Other: 5%No opinion/undecided: 2%North CarolinaTrump: 49%Harris: 45%Other: 4%No opinion/Undecided: 2%
I’m posting their podcast as a follow up to my popular Quick Hit Podcast segment, Don’t Fall For ‘Operation Demoralize’:
The ending of my blog post about Operation Demoralize was not that just because the Democrats and media are trying to demoralize Republicans doesn’t mean that Republicans don’t have problems, it means they have to unemotionally analyze what they are doing right and what they are doing wrong:
What is the antidote for Operation Demoralize?It’s working harder, unemotionally analyzing what you are doing right and what you are doing wrong, correcting course where needed, but not throwing up your hands and commencing a circular firing squad.
And such unemotional analysis is what Cahaly and Towery do. Their podcast was recorded before Tim Walz was named, but I’m not sure that changes their analysis of the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of the campaigns (though Walz is flaming out).
If I had to summarize and paraphrase their points, it’s that the sky is not falling for Donald Trump, but Trump and Republicans are falling behind in the way they are conducting the campaign, creating opportunities for Kamala. They even suggest that because of Republican complacency and lack of action, together with ballot initiatives important to Democrats (abortion and pot), Florida could be closer than people expect.
They mentioned one thing I’ve heard anecdotally from others. That Kamala and Democrat SuperPACS are running ads nonstop in places like Georgia while there is silence from Trump and Republican SuperPACS. They particularly blame the Republican SuperPACS who are leaving everything to the Trump campaign, and also operating under an out-of-date belief that you don’t really focus on ads until the last 8 weeks of the campaign. With early voting, that’s too late.
But the sky is not falling for Trump either. The doom and gloom that fills the media, Operation Demoralize, is overstating things. Their polling indicates a close race. IMO considering the non-stop gushing media coverage since Kamala replaced Joey, this is her honeymoon period. She should be doing much better in the polling, and is running far behind where Hillary and Joey were at the same time in 2016 and 2020.
So the moral of their story is not to be demoralized, but for Republicans to get their act together.
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