The last time we checked in on Nate Silver, he was demanding that Joe Biden resign the presidency. Now the liberal election forecaster is weighing in on the new hype around Kamala Harris as a skeptic.
Silver says that despite the excitement from Democrats and the media, Trump is still likely to win.
The New York Post reports:
Trump remains the favorite in 2024 presidential race despite Harris’ rise: Nate SilverEven after Democrats dramatically moved to re-top their presidential ticket and got an apparent jolt of momentum, famed election analyst and statistical guru Nate Silver still deems former President Donald Trump the favorite.His election forecast model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of prevailing in the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris is at 38.1%.Silver previously pegged Trump with a 65.7% chance of victory over President Biden during his model rollout last month.In his most recent assessment, Silver included a slew of polling averages that gave Trump slight advantages nationally and in most of the battleground states, albeit not in Wisconsin, where Harris was ahead.Still, Silver’s analysis showed Harris rapidly gaining ground on Trump in most polling.His model also gave Harris a 53.5% chance of winning the popular vote compared to Trump’s 46.5% chance.Last month, his assessment, which was based on 40,000 simulations run through the model, pegged Biden with a 47.2% chance of edging out Trump (47.1%) with the national popular vote.
The media is doing whatever they can to shift the narrative and make it look like Harris is the comeback kid who is going to take out Trump. While there is a possibility she could win, I remain very skeptical about the enthusiasm for Harris. I mean, they chose her because they basically had no other choice.
In terms of Silver’s predictions, I think Jazz Shaw of Hot Air makes some excellent points:
So Nate Silver sees Donald Trump’s chance of victory having dropped from 65.7% to 61.3%. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has crept up from the mid-30s to 38.1%. That’s still a fairly healthy margin. It’s not that it’s impossible for this analysis to be wrong, but you have to dig quite a way back into history to find an example of Nate missing a call by anywhere near that much. I see him being cited on CNN nearly as much as he is on Fox News. In that sense, Silver has become the gold standard of election analysis, if you’ll pardon the precious metals pun. He doesn’t base his forecasts on his own political preferences (whatever those may be), but on the hit-and-miss rates of the other pollsters that he tracks.So why has the insertion of Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket failed to produce the Democratic surge that most of the legacy media is desperately seeking to find and trumpet to the world? I’m not sure how much time we really need to invest into answering that question. The position that the Democrats find themselves in today is entirely of their own making, though Joe Biden and his wife bear the brunt of the blame.
Despite all the praise Joe Biden is getting from the left for dropping out of the race, I suspect most of that cheer will go out the window almost instantly if Trump ends up winning. Biden will be blamed for not getting out sooner.
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