Polling Analyst Nate Silver Not Buying Kamala Hype, Says Trump Remains Favorite to Win in 2024
“His election forecast model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of prevailing in the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris is at 38.1%.”
The last time we checked in on Nate Silver, he was demanding that Joe Biden resign the presidency. Now the liberal election forecaster is weighing in on the new hype around Kamala Harris as a skeptic.
Silver says that despite the excitement from Democrats and the media, Trump is still likely to win.
The New York Post reports:
Trump remains the favorite in 2024 presidential race despite Harris’ rise: Nate Silver
Even after Democrats dramatically moved to re-top their presidential ticket and got an apparent jolt of momentum, famed election analyst and statistical guru Nate Silver still deems former President Donald Trump the favorite.
His election forecast model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of prevailing in the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris is at 38.1%.
Silver previously pegged Trump with a 65.7% chance of victory over President Biden during his model rollout last month.
In his most recent assessment, Silver included a slew of polling averages that gave Trump slight advantages nationally and in most of the battleground states, albeit not in Wisconsin, where Harris was ahead.
Still, Silver’s analysis showed Harris rapidly gaining ground on Trump in most polling.
His model also gave Harris a 53.5% chance of winning the popular vote compared to Trump’s 46.5% chance.
Last month, his assessment, which was based on 40,000 simulations run through the model, pegged Biden with a 47.2% chance of edging out Trump (47.1%) with the national popular vote.
The media is doing whatever they can to shift the narrative and make it look like Harris is the comeback kid who is going to take out Trump. While there is a possibility she could win, I remain very skeptical about the enthusiasm for Harris. I mean, they chose her because they basically had no other choice.
In terms of Silver’s predictions, I think Jazz Shaw of Hot Air makes some excellent points:
So Nate Silver sees Donald Trump’s chance of victory having dropped from 65.7% to 61.3%. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has crept up from the mid-30s to 38.1%. That’s still a fairly healthy margin. It’s not that it’s impossible for this analysis to be wrong, but you have to dig quite a way back into history to find an example of Nate missing a call by anywhere near that much. I see him being cited on CNN nearly as much as he is on Fox News. In that sense, Silver has become the gold standard of election analysis, if you’ll pardon the precious metals pun. He doesn’t base his forecasts on his own political preferences (whatever those may be), but on the hit-and-miss rates of the other pollsters that he tracks.
So why has the insertion of Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket failed to produce the Democratic surge that most of the legacy media is desperately seeking to find and trumpet to the world? I’m not sure how much time we really need to invest into answering that question. The position that the Democrats find themselves in today is entirely of their own making, though Joe Biden and his wife bear the brunt of the blame.
Despite all the praise Joe Biden is getting from the left for dropping out of the race, I suspect most of that cheer will go out the window almost instantly if Trump ends up winning. Biden will be blamed for not getting out sooner.
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You don’t need a weatherman
To know which way the wind blows
No, you need a meteorological guru.
Just this morning, Tucker Carlson emailed:
A 24% spread is “modest underdog” and “fighting chance?”
I guess you can even spin numbers.
I have no idea what or who to believe anymore. I do think it’s interesting that the Gallup voter ID poll – which historically has tracked closely with the elections that followed – indicate an appreciable shift towards the GOP and away from the Democrats. Their voter ID model isn’t being reflected by any of the major polls, most of which continue to undercount (relative to Gallup) both GOP IDs as well as Independent IDs and overcount Dems. Whoever is correct, it’s probably smart for Trump to campaign like he’s down 5-points.
He’ll probably need that Five Points just to make up the margin of cheating
That won’t help. The margin of cheating is determined by the polls on election day. That’s what the “pause” was on election night in 2020. Calculations had to be made concerning how many false/recounted ballots were needed – enough to put Biden over the top, but not so many that the cheating would be overtly obvious.
I believe the Dems cheated in 2016 as well, but not by using this approach. They used a pre-planned approach that didn’t end up delivering what they needed to beat Trump, whose popularity had been under-estimated. I think this because it explains why Hillary was so monumentally pissed off – her side cheated and didn’t cheat enough to win. She had been assured the election was in the bag – until it wasn’t. I’d be pissed off too. If you’re going to cheat, it should be done competently.
It’s always smart to campaign like you;re down 5 points.
Does his model adjust for the mass vote fraud and cheating that the very antidemocratic ‘Democrat’ party has relied on for centuries? They will be doubling down this time.
Or, will they forego a bunch of it (keeping just enough to insure down-ballot races) to keep it from being wasted on a candidate it seems a bunch of them would prefer lose? Because you run the risk of getting nailed for it and then losing that avenue of cheating for the next race.
Why would they? It wasn’t like getting caught in 2020 had any real effect on them.
The Dems have a new weapon in the arsenal now – lawfare. It was fairly effective against Trump during his first term. They probably would rather weather another Trump term than have Harris win. Harris has the potential to be worse than Joe, and her under-performance could cost them the next two or three presidential elections after 2024. Trump. OTOH, will be a lame duck they will not have to face again. The cloud of a Trump win does have a certain amount of silver lining for them.
It’s interesting to me that the electorate still essentially sits at 45% to 45%.
“Zombie” (they’re big in Jamaica) or “Really Hitler” – don’t care, don’t matter, I votes the party line.
That leaves the fate of the country in the hands of neurotics who can be swayed by the latest sensational news – the infamous “October Surprise”.
My thought would be that Trump should continue to refuse to debate Kamala so that the Democrats start to taunt him about “being afraid”.
Then, when they can’t back out themselves…. agree to an early October debate.
The hope is that her (assumed to be poor) performance will cause a few percent of the base to stay home, and a few percent of the
ignorantundecided to vote Trump. This with (hopefully) an added few percent of the Black Male vote -might- be enough to overcome the power of the printing press….And demand it immediately, like “tomorrow,” and see who is prepared.
Same rules as last time: no notes, no prompts, and Pres. Trump gets to pick the moderators this time.
I would also keep the no audience and the mic being turned off all the other person is talking thing. I like Trump but that actually worked to his advantage.
My apologies for the fat finger that was supposed to thumb an upvote.
In my opinion, we are now 100% in the propaganda and gaslighting phase of polling and messaging. Either side will create the impression that it’s close and you need to get active or “we’re going to lose democracy” or something.; Saying Trump is going to win will give a massive adrenaline boost to progressives, for example. Polls can be crafted to create any message you want. And they are.
I’m holding off doing any major prognosticating until after the convention.
I’m with you on that. She hasn’t been officially nominated yet, nor named a running mate. All this hand-wringing over polls and posturing over debates at this point seems premature.
Silver’s computer analysis comes down to the fact that Harris (like Biden) has to win all of the swing-3 states (PA, MI, WI) or claw back GA or AZ (while winning 2 out of 3 in the north). It’s not so much about whether she’s slightly ahead or behind in PA, MI and WI, as it is a function of her having to win ALL of them.
If she was 1 point ahead in all three, the model would still give her a distinct chance of losing at least one of them. Indeed, if she was 70% likely to win each of them (and we considered them independent variables), she would only be 35% likely to win all three. So when Silver gives Harris a 40% chance of victory, he’s actually saying she’s probably even or slightly better than even in all three states, but her victory odds are still under 50% because of the need to carry them all.
“claw back GA or AZ ”
I got news last night that both Kari Lake and Jerry Sheridan (running for Sheriff Joe’s old seat) won their primaries by huge margins. Each took home vote totals of >50% against two other challengers, one of whom (in each race) was a hand-picked McCain-machine candidate injected to spilt their vote.
Arizona Republicans aren’t swallowing the McCain pap this year. They’re out with knives.
I think the Dem GOTV Machine is worth about 2 points in MI, WI, and PA, and maybe about 1 point in GA. If the same stunt is done in AZ as was done in 2022 (on-demand printed ballots not being readable), that is worth a couple of points.
I think Silver cares more about his reputation than trying to sway the election. Right now this is good news for Trump, but the situation can change. The left has shown a willingness to do anything to win. They have the media and the courts on their side. They are more disciplined.
Their best strategy is to set a trap for Trump and let him take the bait. If the cheese is fragrant enough Trump will be unable to control himself and stumble. The debate is very dangerous for Trump. It will be 100 percent a venue for hurling outrageous racists accusations against him and lauding Kamala’s uncommon intelligence and accomplishments. He will be put down and cut off. Kamala will deliver a righteous speech about how offended she is on behalf of all people of color after Trump loses it and says something stupid.
…but no one listening will understand it.
The key for Trump in a debate is to get Kamala off-script. She can rehearse attack lines well as she demonstrated 4 years ago, but she doesn’t do well when she is off the cuff.
While I desperately want Trump to win, I am doubtful about Nate Silver’s ability to prognosticate. If I remember correctly he he gave Hillary a good chance of winning in 2016.
He’s desperately trying to get back to the glory days after that screw up.
A commentator on Rita Panahi’s show on Sky News made an excellent observation:
Pres. Trump’s support is organic, while Harris’ is synthetic.
Oh what a tangled web we she weaves, when she practices to deceive, censor and scrub…
That also describes the Maduro election, but when you cheat it means nothing. And Democrats own the mainstream press, which is already lying about Kamala’s stances and accomplishments.
That might be a good prediction, but there is still plenty of time for shenanigans…or worse. And I think we can count on that happening. In fact, the more likely a Trump win looks, the more likely the shenanigans will occur.
Absolutely. I was thinking a new pandemic, but it is already August, so there is not much time. It will take at least a month or two for a new agent to spread well enough to cause a real emergency. Of course, they could unleash the Pandemic after the election if Trump wins, but before he takes office, to ensure he doesn’t take office at all.
I doubt we will be voting in November.
I don’t know where you live, but in Free Florida we will be voting.
Only a nuclear war could do that.
So Harris has decided to finish the wall right before the election
As if 20 additional million of murderous illegals was enough
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/breaking-biden-harris-will-finish-trumps-border-wall-wont-appeal-court-order
But the gate budget will be increased by 600%.
vote counters snickering
“Silver says that despite the excitement from Democrats and the media…”
Funny, I first read this as “the excrement from Democrats and the media”!
You didn’t misread it, Silver mistyped it.
Nate Silver gave Melissa Bean a high 80% probabililty of beating Joe Walsh for Congress, despited a poll showing it a close race.
Walsh won.
Don’t sweat polls. Just vote and get out the vote.