Former President Donald Trump’s momentum from his June debate victory, his near assassination, and presiding over the most unified, uplifting, and successful Republican National Convention in modern memory, came to a screeching halt when President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement on July 21.
Many Democrats, including former President Barack Obama, initially balked at the endorsement. Harris was such a weak and unlikable candidate that as recently as April, Biden’s top advisors allegedly worried she posed a “drag on the ticket.”
Harris’s favorability rating began to fall shortly after Biden appointed her as his border czar in March 2021, or as the Associated Press framed it, when she was “tapped … to lead the White House effort to tackle the migration challenge at the U.S. southern border and work with Central American nations to address root causes of the problem.” Since that time, her favorability has mostly fluctuated between 35 and 40 percent. In a January NBC poll, it reached an all-time low of 28 percent.
On July 21, the day Harris launched her campaign, her favorability stood at 37.9 percent. Ten days later, it stands at 43 percent, an increase of 13.5 percent.
What would account for such a quick boost? Well, the legacy media are literally swooning over Harris, whom they are promoting as the next Barack Obama. The “Harrismania” that has built up since Biden’s withdrawal is not based on reality. It is a media-driven construct. We are witnessing a real-world demonstration of the power of propaganda, and we are amazed by the ease – and the speed – with which it was accomplished.
The media has elevated Harris to rockstar status. The cover of New York Magazine features the vice president sitting atop a coconut (a nod to a bizarre Harris quip about how her mother once asked her if she “just fell out of a coconut tree”), with Democratic Party leaders and fans celebrating her candidacy from below. The merry little scene is titled, “Welcome to Kamalot.”
Harris has seized the moment. The Harris campaign said it raised more than $200 million in its first week.
For obvious reasons, Democrats are excited about Harris’s candidacy. Biden’s implosion at the CNN debate had plunged the party into three long weeks of despair, during which many had resigned themselves to certain defeat in November. Swapping out Biden for Harris came as a tremendous relief and provided something that had been sorely lacking: enthusiasm.
The latest Wall Street Journal poll shows that 81 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about Harris’s candidacy. That compares with just 37 percent who felt the same about Biden. [Republican enthusiasm for Trump in the poll stands at 85 percent.]
Although early polling still shows Trump ahead of Harris, she has managed to narrow the gap to a startling degree.
The RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head polls shows Trump 1.4 points ahead of Harris by a margin of 48.1 to 46.1 percent. Before Biden withdrew from the race, Trump led by 3 points. The average contains 10 polls released on or after July 22. Significantly, three of the polls show Trump’s support at or above the critical 50 percent threshold and just slightly below in three others.
When third party candidates are added to the mix, Trump’s lead over Harris falls slightly to 1.1 points, suggesting that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may be drawing more voters from Trump than from Harris.
More alarming of all, Harris is narrowing the gap with Trump in the battleground states, particularly in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, states that are critical to victory in the Electoral College.
On July 21, Trump was ahead of Biden by wide margins in all of the battleground states. The RCP polling averages were as follows: Arizona, +5.8; Georgia, +4.0; Michigan, +2.1; Nevada, +5.6; North Carolina, +5.7; Pennsylvania, +4.5; and Wisconsin, +3.3.
As of August 1, Trump still retains a lead in six of those states, but Harris has cut into his margins significantly: Arizona, +4.2; Georgia, +3.6; Nevada, +4.0; North Carolina, +5.5; Pennsylvania, +2.7; and Wisconsin, +0.2.
Buoyed by a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll (registered voters) that shows Harris ahead of Trump by a whopping 11 points, Harris now leads in Michigan by 2 points. At the risk of sounding like Biden, it’s pretty hard to take that result seriously. A Fox News survey released on Friday night found the race tied while a second poll from The Hill/Emerson showed Trump ahead by 1 point.
Harris’s net gains are as follows: Arizona, +1.6; Georgia, +0.4; Michigan, +3.9; Nevada, +1.6; North Carolina, +0.2; Pennsylvania, +1.8; and Wisconsin, +3.1.
Clearly, Harris has made real headway in the Rust Belt states. Trump’s selection of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate was meant to bolster the ticket in those states. As we know, Vance has gotten off to a shaky start due to Democrat and media exploitation of comments he made in a 2021 interview about “childless cat ladies.”
But if an assassination attempt on Trump can fade from the news cycle in two weeks, chances are that Vance’s “cat ladies” remarks will too. We’ll see.
Trump and Vance need to emphasize that, during her short-lived 2020 presidential campaign, Harris said there was “no question” she would ban fracking in the U.S. as president. Realizing that such a ban would be unpopular in the must-win state of Pennsylvania, she has already flip-flopped on fracking.
According to “an ‘operative close’ to the campaign,” Team Harris believes they can win not only the Rust Belt states, but Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia as well. A source told Strassel that Harris’s opening is in “Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania. And however those four states go, the rest of the country will follow.”
During her Atlanta rally on Tuesday, Harris told supporters, “I am very clear: The path to the White House runs right through this state.” I’m not so sure about that.
Harris is drawing support from blacks, Hispanics, and younger voters, all groups that Trump had been making inroads with prior to Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
The Journal poll shows Harris’s support among nonwhite voters at 63 percent. Biden’s support among this group had been 51 percent, far short of the 73 percent he won in 2020.
In the short term, Harris’s polling results will likely go even higher. On Tuesday, she will reveal the name of her running mate which is sure to generate excitement. And, no doubt, she will receive a bounce from the party’s upcoming convention.
In a July 23 memo (below), Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio warned Republicans to expect a bump for Harris in the polls over the next couple of weeks, particularly in the national polls. Fabrizio noted that “the fundamentals of the race stay the same.”
As we’ve witnessed repeatedly, Harris does fine when she’s reading from a teleprompter. It’s when she is required to speak extemporaneously that toads come out.
The Harris campaign clearly realizes that she gets into trouble when she is unscripted which is likely why she not yet held a press conference. But sooner or later, she will have to face reporters. She will also participate in a debate with Trump, who has become decidedly more disciplined this time around.
Last week, CNN data reporter Harry Enten warned viewers against overconfidence. “For all of the excitement that Democrats have over Kamala Harris, it’s going to be difficult to beat Donald Trump,” Enten said. “The fact is, Donald Trump is more popular now than he ever has been before.”
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Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a research fellow at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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