Govt Claims Inflation ‘Cooled’ in July Despite Rising Prices

MARY CHASTAIN AUG 14, 2024 3:12 PM

It’s always to have suspicions when it comes to economic numbers.

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the latest example.

Somehow, inflation slightly “cooled” to 2.9%, not counting volatile energy and food items, even though prices rose 0.2% since June.

Government math! I mean…what?

If you include the volatile items, inflation is 3.2%.

The BLS has never included the volatile items. Weird, huh, considering those are the biggest factors in our lives.

If the BLS included those items, the inflation number would be higher. MoM = Month to Month. YoY = Year to Year.

The report also showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% compared to 4.1% in June. The rate was 3.7% at the beginning of 2024.

Want more red flags? Almost everyone says the 2.9% gives the Federal Reserve the ammunition to cut rates.

Also:

The Federal Reserve

What happens when the Fed cuts rates as prices continue to increase? It floods the country with more useless currency and encourages risky behaviors by institutions, such as driving higher prices for real estate and other assets.

Many of these funds and institutions use margin (buy securities with debt) to trade. So lower rates = cheaper debt to borrow and BUY STONKS.

At the same time, the cost of goods increases because the dollar is worthless.

The Report

Remember, the overall number does not include food and energy. Also remember, the BLS has never included those numbers so it’s not new or nefarious.

How convenient for them since the energy index increased by 1.1% for the past 12 months. The food index increased 2.2% during that same time period. I’ll look at those later.

MoM = Month to Month and YoY = YoY.

Here are some big ones and I’ll include both numbers instead of nitpicking.

• Shelter: +5.1% YoY and +0.4% MoM
• Medical services (overall): +3.3% YoY and -0.3% MoM
• Hospital services: +6.1% YoY and -1.1% MoM
• Transportation services (overall): +8.8% YoY and +0.4% MoM
• Motor Vehicle Insurance: +18.6% YoY and +1.2% MoM
• Used cars & trucks: -10.9% YoY and -2.3% MoM
• Apparel: +0.2% YoY and -0.4% MoM
• Medical care commodities (not services): +2.8% YoY and +0.2% MoM
• Education and communication commodities (Textbooks, computers, smartphones): -6.2% YoY and +0.4% MoM
• Education and communication services (Tuition): +2.2% YoY and +0.2% MoM
• Rent of shelter: +5.1% YoY and +0.3% MoM
• Rent of primary residence: +5.1% YoY and +0.5% MoM

Food and Energy

Now let’s look at the two items that affect us normies every day!

• Food (total): +2.2% YoY and +0.2% MoM
• Energy (total): +1.1% YoY and no change MoM

Breakdown of food essentials:

• Food at home: +1.1% YoY and +0.1% MoM
• Cereals & bakery products: No change YoY and -0.5% MoM
• Bread: -0.9% YoY and -1.1% MoM
• Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: +3.0% YoY and 0.7% MoM
• Beef and veal: +4.5% YoY and +1.2% MoM
• Pork: +3.6% YoY and -0.2% MoM
• Chicken: +1.7% YoY and +0.1% MoM
• Eggs: +19.1% YoY and +5.5% Mom
• Dairy and related products: -0.2% YoY and -0.2% Mom
• Milk: +1.2% YoY and +1.9% MoM
• Cheese and related products: -2.3% YoY and 0.3% MoM
• Fresh fruits and vegetables: -0.2% YoY and +0.8% MoM
• Apples: -12.5% YoY and -1.2% MoM
• Bananas: -1.3% YoY and -1.7% MoM
• Processed fruits and vegetables: +0.7% YoY and +0.2% MmM
• Canned fruits and veggies: +1.3% YoY and 0.1% MoM
• Frozen fruits and veggies: -1.7% YoY and +0.4% Mom
• Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials: +1.9% YoY and 0.5% MoM
• Coffee: -0.4% YoY and +1.7% MoM
• Frozen noncarbonated juices and drinks: +19.2% YoY and +0.7% MoM
• Sugar and sweet substitutes: +3.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM
• Fats and oils: +3.6% YoY and -0.6% MoM
• Butter: +6.1% YoY and +0.1% MoM
• Peanut Butter: +2.6% YoY and +0.2% MoM

Breakdown of energy essentials isn’t bad YoY. MoM? Most went up:

• Energy commodities: -2.0% YoY and +0.1% MoM
• Fuel oil: -0.3% YoY and +0.9% MoM
• Propane, kerosene, and firewood: +1.1% YoY and +1.9% MoM
• Gasoline (all types): -2.3% YoY and 0.1% MoM
• Energy services: +4.2% YoY and -0.1% MoM
• Electricity: +4.9% YoY and 0.1% MoM
• Utility (piped) gas service: +1.5% YoY and -0.7% MoM

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