Not good, Bob.
The economy had a weak July, with only 114,000 jobs added as unemployed people increased by 320,000 to 7.2 million.
The average number of new monthly jobs in the past year is 215,000. Major yikes.
There’s no way around it. This is bad.
The jobs report has many stats, but an important one is the number of unemployed people who currently want a job. The unemployment number doesn’t include them since they did not actively look for a job in the last four weeks preceding the survey.
In other words, people who give up looking for work.
July: “The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job increased by 366,000 to 5.6 million in July, largely offsetting a decline in the previous month.”
Yikes. The unemployment rate jumped by 0.2% to 4.3% in July. Imagine what it would be like if the BLS included them in the unemployment rate.
“We are still in a good place, but until we see signs of stabilizing, of leveling out, I’m worried,” Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist now the chief economist at New Century Advisors, told The Wall Street Journal.
Another important stat is the average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, which rose by 8 cents or 0.2% to $35.07.
The number is 3.6% higher than July 2023. However, it’s “the smallest gain since May 2021.”
The labor participation rate is important as the Boomers retire.
Well, it’s not great, either. It’s at 62.7%, a little change from June to a year ago.
The employment-population ratio also changed a little to 60%.
That stat went down 0.4% from a year ago.
You also have to look at adjustments to previous months. Remember those numbers they bragged about in May and June?
Yeah, the BLS revised them down by a combined 29,000:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 2,000, from +218,000 to +216,000, and the change for June was revised down by 27,000, from +206,000 to +179,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 29,000 lower than previously reported.
June went down by 27,000!!
So, 114,000 new jobs overall. The BLS found the most change in:
These sectors saw little change: government, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.
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