David Axelrod: ‘It is absolutely Trump’s race to lose’ notwithstanding Harris gain in polls
“There’s a lot of irrational exuberance on the Democratic side of the aisle right now because there was despair for some period of time about what November was going to look like…. [I]t is absolutely Trump’s race to lose right now.”
A CBS News/You Gov poll released on Sunday showed Vice President Kamala Harris 1 point ahead of former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup, and 2 points ahead when third-party candidates were added to the mix.
This was a big change from a CBS poll released two weeks ago – before President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race – that showed Trump up by 3 points in a two-way race.
The addition of the CBS survey to the RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head polls narrows Trump’s lead to 0.8 percent, down from a 1.6 percent lead the day after Harris launched her presidential campaign.
Unbelievably, Harris has taken a narrow lead for the first time in the RealClearPolitics average of five-way polls. She is now up by 0.2 percent.
On Saturday night, former senior adviser to President Barack Obama and CNN contributor David Axelrod joined anchor Jessica Dean on “CNN Newsroom” to discuss Harris’s undeniable momentum in her race against Trump.
Despite Harris’s strong polling results, Dean acknowledged “[T]his is still a really tight race. This is going to be a hard fight for either side – tough based on the numbers we’re seeing right now.”
Agreeing with his colleague “100 percent,” Axelrod said, “There’s a lot of irrational exuberance on the Democratic side of the aisle right now because there was despair for some period of time about what November was going to look like.”
Noting that Democrats now “feel like there’s a chance,” he was clear that “it is absolutely Trump’s race to lose right now. He is ahead and he is ahead in most of the battleground states. They are close, they can be won by either candidate.” (Emphasis added.)
Summing up, Axelrod said, “So yes, I think it’s a wide-open race, but Trump has the advantage right now and … everybody should be sober about that on the Democratic side.”
(Relevant segment begins at 3:30 in the video below.)
Trump’s polling results are likely to get worse before they get better. Excitement over Harris’s impending VP pick has already boosted her support. Harris will reveal her running mate on Tuesday at a Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, rally. The pair will then embark upon a four-day “blitz” in the battleground states. On August 19, the Democratic National Convention will begin in Chicago. Harris, like most candidates, can expect a post-convention bounce in the polls.
From there, however, it gets trickier.
Becoming the Democratic presidential nominee so late in the game has worked to Harris’s advantage. It has limited the amount of time for the (conservative) press to properly vet her and minimized the number of occasions when Harris will be required to speak extemporaneously because that’s when she gets into trouble – as she did on Thursday night.
Biden and Harris traveled to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland to welcome home newly freed Russian prisoners Paul Whelan, Evan Gershkovich, and Alsu Kurmasheva. The vice president was unscripted and, yes, it was a mess.
Harris told reporters: “This is just an extraordinary testament to the importance of having a president who understands the power of diplomacy and understands the strength that rests in understanding the significance of diplomacy.”
KAMALA — UNSCRIPTED FOR THE FIRST TIME:
“This is just an extraordinary testament to the importance of having a president who understands the power of diplomacy and understands the strength that rests in understanding the significance of diplomacy.”
WHAT?pic.twitter.com/LiE3SQkZ3P
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) August 2, 2024
Below, she is asked by a reporter what she will do to address inflation:
Kamala’s Plan to Fix Inflation.
This is terrifying. pic.twitter.com/3ye0t24hux
— Jane Adams (@iLoveJaneAdams) August 2, 2024
Sooner or later, Harris will have to face reporters. She will also (likely) face Trump on a debate stage. If Trump can remain disciplined, share his vision for a second term, ask voters if they were better off four years ago than they are now, and simply let Harris be Harris, he can regain his lead in this race.
And Harris will be forced to make her case in her own words. My guess is that voters will be shocked by her inadequate communications skills.
They may also be surprised by her arrogant demeanor. Aside from the fly that landed on then-Vice President Mike Pence’s head (and stayed for two minutes) during the 2020 vice presidential debate, the biggest takeaway had been Harris’s imperious behavior, her frequent reminders to Pence of “I’m speaking. I’m speaking.”
Harris’s honeymoon can’t go on forever. Voters will see for themselves that she is the same unlikable, inauthentic, and not very bright candidate who was forced to drop out of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary before a single vote was cast.
—————–
Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a research fellow at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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Comments
Notwithstanding never made sense to me as a kid. It seemed to mean withstanding.
Leave a space between the t and the w and you’re right.
Not to mention: if there is understanding, what is overstanding?
There seems to be an underarching principle at play.
I am nonplussed at your comment.
Or, possibly just plussed.
Obama, the mystery scholar, is on tape obviously using nonplussed to mean not bothered by. Somebody needs to tell that boy he be plussed.
Are you whelmed?
I’m very gruntled by this wordplay.
the one guaranteed result of playing with our language:
you’ll get the “illegal aliens” terribly confused
America deserves everything bad that happens to it if we let this r-tard win.
Poll fraud and cheating are one thing (well…two, if you’re counting), but these mind games and Bravo Sierra propaganda are quite another; our reliable 24/7 media will constantly push the idea that Harris is a brilliant black woman, just what the country needs, and besides which, she’s already won – overwhelmingly>
this is meant to dishearten the middle-of-the-road voter
why bother voting: she’s won already
the politically illiterate will pull the D lever, as they always do
just watch CNN and get your election night news here (before the vote)
Things have obviously come apart in in Japan and Asia more generally. As of this moment, DOW futures are down -610. Today could be an unbelievably horrible day. Trump may win for the same reason FDR won in 1932. Back then it was because of the Great Depression. This may be the beginning of the Great Reckoning.
Trump showed some discipline during the debate, but then blew the convention. Somehow this man with the vocabulary of a 8-year-old rambled on for close to 2 hours spouting verbal diarrhea. I think he is incapable of resisting the temptation to personally insult the slutty ignoramus he is running against. He could shock the world and win in a landslide if he ignored all personal attacks and limited his comments to comparing the Biden/Harris record with his own.
His supporters see this as a sign of his authenticity and is arguably the biggest driver of his base’s enthusiasm for him. But, as you point out, his lack of discipline on the stump also creates a lot of problems for him. Hard to say if this ‘stream of consciousness campaign style’ is a net benefit or net deficit for him.
Adlai Stevenson was one with a buttery-smooth mastery of the English language. Yet, I’d not want to have had him as a president.
Necessary vs sufficient
The fact that the polls are so close is a testament to how much trouble we are in as a country.
You’re correct to be worried and disheartened by the current state of the race relative to the malaise that is settling over the country. But, it’s important to remember that during the 1980 Election, Carter was comfortably leading Reagan by 5-points or more until July. It was only then did Reagan begin to match and then surpass Carter. But, it was a tenuous lead until Election Day. Gallup’s final poll of 1980 showed a race within the margin of error with Reagan up 46-43. Reagan ended up winning with 50% of the vote producing an Electoral landslide. But, most historians believe that almost all of John Anderson’s support came from people who otherwise would have voted for Carter. Reagan likely still wins without Anderson in the race. But, his lead over Carter would have been very, very narrow. Relative to Reagan in that 1980 election, Trump is in a good position, from a polling perspective.
But, it does say something about the state of the country when the absolute high point for any GOP candidate today is just over 300 Electoral Votes considering Reagan won almost 500. If the country were to fall into a Depression by Election Day, Harris will still win no less than 18 or 19 states. We’re a country saddled with sectarian division today in a way that hasn’t been seen since the Civil War.
You’re correct that she would still win 18 or 19 states in that scenario which is very unfortunate. In 1980, we weren’t overrun with millions of illegal aliens and, more importantly, 2 generations of people had not been “educated” by communists. Democrats back then were arguably still patriotic. Now, they hate their own country and want to see it fail. Rough times ahead.
:Dukakis was also way ahead of George H.W. Bush after the Dem. convention, but lost convincingly to Bush in November.
Yes, that’s exactly correct. It’s something that is infrequently mentioned or even understood by contemporary political commentators. It’s always been interesting to me that 1988 was arguably the first year where we saw significant polling discrepancies relative to the actual outcome, particularly late summertime/early fall polling. From 1960 to 1976 in particular, and even 1980 (even though Anderson ended up really eating into Carter in a way that was unforeseen by pollsters) late summer/early fall polling didn’t vary much from the actual election result.
I think polling became a much more weaponized process in that 1988 election in way that it wasn’t before…and it’s been that way ever since.
The two times I have been polled, I lied. I had no idea who was at the other end of the phone, so like a “good German”, I gave the answer that was least likely to get me on a no-fly list, or a “stop and harass” flag in police computers.
He literally tanked…
I have a minor problem believing anything I hear/see on TV/in the media.
I’m tired of having fertiliser shoveled down my throat, but, there are those (my SIL is an excellent example) who “know” with the fervency of the “True Believer” that what the well-groomed, handsome idiot reading his lines from a prompter just couldn’t be a lie.
19th century: It was in the NY Times, it must be true!
Early 20th century: Walter Winchell said it so it must be true!
Mid 20th century: Walter Cronkite / Chet Huntley said it, so it must be true.
21st century: I saw it at Drudge Report / Gateway Pundit / Young Turks, it must be true!
The need to be a cheating margin of error in the polls to be more realistic.
What I do not believe: any polling that occurs before voting takes place. Polling that takes place after voting? I don’t believe that either. I’ve worked in statistics. I can publish a poll showing that the sun rises in the west.
What I do believe: Democrats are going to stop at nothing to get their candidate into the White House. And if they do…
Well you can use your imagination.
And any “polling” of voters that takes place after the polls close in eastern states, likely in leftist rat nest districts, influencing the western states. Remember the Florida panhandle?
Joe Sixpack will continue watching the football and drinking his brewskis, while the little woman puts fresh polish on her nails. She gave the youngster something with a screen to distract so that neither parent needs to be a parent.
Life will go on as normal.
Instapundit: People being paid to post supportive messages to blogs
https://instapundit.com/664854/
Moonbattery: Homeless being bussed in to Kamala rallies
https://moonbattery.com/where-they-find-crowds-for-kamala-rallies/
So much for polls.
Any reporting of polls, results etc., should be illegal until the last poll closes, wherever it is.
Not a peep. It is influencing the vote. Again.
An idea I have proposed in the past is for election day to be 24 hours, and is to start at the same GMT time and close as the same GMT time. (Alright, I am showing my age. Make that UTC). The polls open in the eastern time zone at, say, 9AM, western time 6AM. Run for 24 hours, then close the polls in eastern time 9AM
… western 6AM the following day. 24 hours to vote; no one has any excuse. This also denies the networks a chance to declare, say, Florida went for Harris before the more conservative central time panhandle vote is in.
Trump will win as long as we get the old policy-focused Trump of 2019, not the one on tilt insulting popular republican governors who outperformed him and his disastrous Senate picks.
You haven’t seen anything yet; wait for his cabinet appointees.
Trump will win so long as creatures like you don’t side with leftists again because of ‘mean tweets’.
the vote counters know what to do for their cause
a trump victory will only be as good as a cleaning out of the swamp
america moves further left
unless………
There’s hard to find video after Kamala talks here. It shows Biden getting on an empty plane totally dazed and lost.
Does the Situation Room at (under) the WH have a nappy-time room for the Commander and Chief? Who will be in the room should the Football be needed? I know… I already answered that without saying.
The Lamestream media continues to POUND us with polls indicating closeness or favorable to Kamala results
These are nothing more than advance works placed in justification of what will become the largest voter fraud operation in US history, surpassing the coup of 2020.
Can you imagine even 1 Trump voter switching to Kamal the sole change being Xiden was forced out
NOT EVEN ONE
What’s up with Shapiro and his possible involvement with Ellen Greenburg’s death which was declared a suicide even though she had multiple stab wounds from behind?
Greenberg was discovered dead in her kitchen in January 2011 with 20 stab wounds, including 10 from behind, at least one of which could have been inflicted after she was already dead, according to court documents. Her body was also covered in bruises in different stages of healing.
Investigators found a half-made fruit salad on the countertop and signs of a struggle, including that the knife block had been knocked over.
There was evidence the door lock had been tampered with and that her body had been moved, according to her parents’ lawyer, Joe Podraza. He told Fox News Digital the knife found at the scene had never been fingerprinted.
The crime scene was cleaned up before detectives arrived with a search warrant, according to court documents. And the appellate court judges said they had not been given any record of police interviews with the building security guard or with Greenberg’s fiance, who called 911 to report finding her slumped over in their apartment.
But city police and prosecutors have repeatedly insisted the death was a suicide.
“They never talk about the big gash to Ellen’s head,” Dr. Greenberg said Monday. “They never talk about the restraint on the wrists, how she was restrained, only that there was no defensive wounds.”
There’s also missing video evidence, he said.
“This is such a bogus case,” he added. “It’s a cluster—-.”
The Chester County District Attorney’s Office is conducting another outside investigation after Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner stepped away due to a conflict of interest and
former Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is now the governor, was accused of having another conflict of interest.
https://gavinfish.com/cases/ellen-greenberg/
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