The RNC, arguably the most exciting and effective convention in decades (maybe ever), ended on Thursday, so we don’t yet have any post-convention polling data.
We do, however, have post-assassination attempt polling data, and Trump is pulling even further ahead of Biden both nationally and in Virginia.
Former President Trump has expanded his lead over President Biden in recent polling after last weekend’s assassination attempt.A survey released Thursday by CBS News found that among likely voters, 52 percent said their choice for president is Trump, while 47 percent said the same about Biden.Trump’s numbers increased, up from 50 percent in a July 3 survey, while Biden dropped 1 percent.Biden fared better in battleground states but still trailed Trump. Fifty-one percent of likely voters in battleground states say they choose Trump compared to Biden’s 48 percent.
The surveys of Virginia and Georgia voters, conducted July 12 to 15 by FAU and Main Street Research, show the former president making up ground in the Old Dominion State, which he lost by 10 points to Joe Biden in 2020.In the three-way-race model before the July 13 shooting, Biden led 42% to Trump’s 39%. He drew 77% of Democrats, and Trump got 78% of Republicans, while they tied at 34% each with independent voters.Sub in Harris for Biden in last week’s poll, and the race looked roughly the same, with Harris leading 43% to 38%; 81% of Democrats and a plurality of independent voters back her.. . . . In the post-shooting polls, the numbers differ for the three-way contest.This week’s FAU/Main Street polls have Biden leading narrowly in Virginia with 43% support to Trump’s 42%. Biden still leads with independents, but Trump’s 88% of Republicans compares more than favorably with the 79% of Democrats backing Biden.Put Harris in the mix for a hypothetical three-way, though, and Trump takes the lead, 41% to 40%. The veep loses 10 points among Democrats at 69% support, while Trump maintains his 88% with his own party.
To no one’s surprise, Kamala is obviously not popular with Virginia Democrats. Nor, it appears, is she popular with Georgia Democrats.
The New York Post continues:
In Georgia, meanwhile, this poll suggests a static race.In the three-way model before the shooting, Biden secured just 81% of Democrats, while Trump takes 89% of Republicans before the shooting, leading overall 46% to 40% in that scenario.Harris does much worse in a Georgia hypothetical, behind Trump 49% to 38% even before the shooting, with only 72% of Democrats saying they would support her, and 11% backing the Republican nominee in that scenario.After the shooting, the race still was essentially the same no matter who Democrats run. Trump led Biden, 44% to 37%, despite losing independents, as he held 88% GOP support compared to 80% for Biden. Trump led Harris 46% to 38% after the assassination attempt, meanwhile, with 87% of Republicans backing him and just 77% of Dems backing the VP.
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