Post-Assassination Attempt Bump: Trump Expands National Lead Over Biden, As Well As In Virginia
“Trump’s numbers increased, up from 50 percent in a July 3 survey, while Biden dropped 1 percent.”
The RNC, arguably the most exciting and effective convention in decades (maybe ever), ended on Thursday, so we don’t yet have any post-convention polling data.
We do, however, have post-assassination attempt polling data, and Trump is pulling even further ahead of Biden both nationally and in Virginia.
Former President Trump has expanded his lead over President Biden in recent polling after last weekend’s assassination attempt.
A survey released Thursday by CBS News found that among likely voters, 52 percent said their choice for president is Trump, while 47 percent said the same about Biden.
Trump’s numbers increased, up from 50 percent in a July 3 survey, while Biden dropped 1 percent.
Biden fared better in battleground states but still trailed Trump. Fifty-one percent of likely voters in battleground states say they choose Trump compared to Biden’s 48 percent.
The surveys of Virginia and Georgia voters, conducted July 12 to 15 by FAU and Main Street Research, show the former president making up ground in the Old Dominion State, which he lost by 10 points to Joe Biden in 2020.
In the three-way-race model before the July 13 shooting, Biden led 42% to Trump’s 39%. He drew 77% of Democrats, and Trump got 78% of Republicans, while they tied at 34% each with independent voters.
Sub in Harris for Biden in last week’s poll, and the race looked roughly the same, with Harris leading 43% to 38%; 81% of Democrats and a plurality of independent voters back her.
. . . . In the post-shooting polls, the numbers differ for the three-way contest.
This week’s FAU/Main Street polls have Biden leading narrowly in Virginia with 43% support to Trump’s 42%. Biden still leads with independents, but Trump’s 88% of Republicans compares more than favorably with the 79% of Democrats backing Biden.
Put Harris in the mix for a hypothetical three-way, though, and Trump takes the lead, 41% to 40%. The veep loses 10 points among Democrats at 69% support, while Trump maintains his 88% with his own party.
To no one’s surprise, Kamala is obviously not popular with Virginia Democrats. Nor, it appears, is she popular with Georgia Democrats.
The New York Post continues:
In Georgia, meanwhile, this poll suggests a static race.
In the three-way model before the shooting, Biden secured just 81% of Democrats, while Trump takes 89% of Republicans before the shooting, leading overall 46% to 40% in that scenario.
Harris does much worse in a Georgia hypothetical, behind Trump 49% to 38% even before the shooting, with only 72% of Democrats saying they would support her, and 11% backing the Republican nominee in that scenario.
After the shooting, the race still was essentially the same no matter who Democrats run. Trump led Biden, 44% to 37%, despite losing independents, as he held 88% GOP support compared to 80% for Biden.
Trump led Harris 46% to 38% after the assassination attempt, meanwhile, with 87% of Republicans backing him and just 77% of Dems backing the VP.
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Comments
The Dimocrats planned poorly in the previous race. Now they’re stuck with an alzheimic president and an airheaded vice president, both with histories that can’t be denied. The chickens have come home to roost.
What fun to watch. They’re in a hole they themselves dug and the Republicans are tossing their own dirt in on top of them. Can anybody lend me a shovel?
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Judging by the way the left is reacting to his speech, it was very successful!
Just always keep in mind that the Left is not limited by laws or election rules and that fraud is the norm in American elections.
Be ready.
Subotai Bahadur
I rode with an Indian-born cab driver in Queens, the other day. Very nice guy, Has three adult offspring, all doing well in various fields, e.g., medicine, cybersecurity, etc. He emphasized how success in the U.S. was possible for anyone, if one was focused on the right priorities — education, hard work, family, etc. Unprompted by me, he volunteered that he was a supporter of President Trump and stated that he took pride in J.D. Vance’s wife being of Indian descent.
I suspect that there are far more Trump-supporters out there than the Dhimmi-crats’ conventional wisdom would suggest, and, that these supporters can be found in places that might prove surprising to the leftist media shills/lapdogs/trained seals.
I wrote previously that playing around with the electoral map on 270towin’s website yields some interesting results.
My most pessimistic, worst-case scenario (assuming no split-state electoral awards) has Trump-Vance winning twenty-seven states and exactly 270 electoral votes, to Biden’s or Harris’s 268.
The Dhimmi-crat candidate wins the following twenty-three states (plus, D.C.), and, still loses:
HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, AZ, NM, CO, MN, WI, IL, MI, VA, DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH and ME.
Obviously, I hope that President Trump wins one or more of NJ, NY, NH, VA, NV and AZ, but, to err on the side of pessimism/conservation in this exercise, I gave all of those states to the Dhimmi-crat candidate. And, the good news is, even with that concession, President Trump still wins; again, assuming no split-state electoral vote awards.
My prediction is a comfortable victory for Trump-Vance, that, if it doesn’t approach a Reagan vs. Mondale-sized electoral vote total and blowout, will nonetheless represent a victory of surprising breadth and scope, when analyzed at the state and county level. For all their media and Big Tech dominance, the Dhimmi-crats’ support is transparently shallow, concentrated in coastal and midwestern large cities. Leave the cities in any given state, and, you’ll be in Trump-Vance country.
That’s part of the reason why the Dhimmi-crats are agitating so enthusiastically for awarding state electoral vote totals to the national popular vote winner — they want the POTUS to effectively be elected by the allegedly enlightened, sagacious and morally superior denizens of high-population. reliably “blue” states, such as California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts.
As I think about it, Georgia is decidedly problematic. I assumed that it would go to the GOP, but, that may well be a mistake, as history shows that it is becoming a tougher state for the GOP to win.
The question really becomes whether enough black Dhimmi-crats in Georgia want to throw off their ideological shackles, reject Biden’s corrosive and contrived racial victimhood narratives and escape from the Dhimmi-crat plantation.
Perhaps the dynamic in GA will be different this year as it appears that the GOPe is supporting the ticket. If so, that is worth a couple of points.
It will also be interesting to see how the black voters in GA and elsewhere react now that the lies about Trump being racist have been debunked. It is now obvious that the populist GOP is the party that supports the working class, families and upward mobility. I suspect that many young minority voters will choose opportunity.
That is a good sign; the Indians are generally Democrat for some reason, like the Jews, but are coming around once the reality sets in.
I go to the Indian communities in NJ, like Iselin, and can get first hand evidence. Should be going again soon. For the food mostly!!
I don’t know of any community, regional, academic hospital, or VA hospital that doesn’t have Indians on their professional staff. Trump should run on increasing Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements to physicians, surgeons, and specialists and he would control the medicine professionals voting block.
When your entire existence depends on government checks, the reason is obvious.
Agreed, but the Indian community (east Asian variety) are actually the most successful of all the racial groups, including other Asians.
Like with the Jewish community, I think there is some other incentive, although I can’t see what it might be.
Agreed but I still sense Trump wins Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Interesting – except Biden won’t be the nominee.
Kamala plus a 2nd tier swing state politician is my bet.
That Biden has 47% is indicative that many people have long Trump virus and cannot be cured.
Trump is literally campaigning against a zombie.
“Lady MacBiden”
Trump Assassination Attempt: Does Dr Jill Biden Need to be Questioned?
https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/lady-macbiden
That’s a good link that adds some good details and questions to the others
The Biden debacle has been bad enough. It disturbs me no end that there are people in this country who have been watching and listening these last 3 and a half years who would actually cast a vote for Cackling Kamala Harris. Amazing and sad to even think about. The word salad, the electric buses, the Venn diagrams, and the constant laughing, usually in the face of the administrations latest embarrassing failure. There is no way anyone could possibly think she would be a good POTUS.. no way..
“The RNC, arguably the most exciting and effective convention in decades (maybe ever)”
But never forget, the Democrat Convention gets the last word. And I can assure you, they have hundreds of their experienced Hollywood whores working up a grand spectacle to neutralize the RNC’s runaway presentation.
And in case the rioting in Chicago threatens to overshadow their efforts, they even have a complete Plan C package courtesy of Michael Bay.
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