You gotta take polls with a grain of salt, especially after 2016. Who saw President Donald Trump winning?
But the latest New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll spells doom for President Joe Biden in five key states:
Excluding the “I did not vote” people, 49% of the respondents voted for Biden.
The New York Times desperately tried to make it sound like no big deal, but this part makes me think…yes, it is a big deal:
The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November.
Despite a decent stock market, Trump’s trial, and Biden putting out ads in the battleground states, it’s unchanged.
Do you know what else raised flags for me?
The poll didn’t include RFK Jr. (third-party), Jill Stein (Green Party), Cornel West (third-party), or Lars Mapstead (Libertarian Party), although the October poll had them listed.
Even without those people, Biden still didn’t do well.
The latest poll also separated the question “Thinking about the upcoming presidential election in 2024, if the election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?” into two parts: includes and excludes leaners.
Another question asked is whether Trump is wrong for democracy. However, I cannot find any question asking if Biden is bad for democracy.
They seemed to try really hard to make Biden come out on top!
Vice President Kamala Harris might want to cool it with abortion and cries of democracy because all of the respondents are more concerned about economics.
They all consider the economy poor. They all trust Trump more than Biden on the economy, immigration, national security, and the Gaza War.
31% of the respondents want to make it harder for people to seek asylum in America. 39% want to build a wall!
Biden wins the 18-29 age group by 1%: 47% to 46%.
Biden has more support among blacks and Hispanics, but the support has eroded. Trump wins with “others” under race/ethnicity.
But 22% of the black respondents support Trump. According to The New York Times, “that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.”
All the states agreed that Biden was too old to be an effective president, but they all disagreed that Trump was too old to be an effective president.
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