New Poll Shows Trump Winning Key States, Including Michigan and Pennsylvania
Biden has problems in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. He’s barely holding on in Wisconsin.
You gotta take polls with a grain of salt, especially after 2016. Who saw President Donald Trump winning?
But the latest New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll spells doom for President Joe Biden in five key states:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- Pennsylvania
Excluding the “I did not vote” people, 49% of the respondents voted for Biden.
The New York Times desperately tried to make it sound like no big deal, but this part makes me think…yes, it is a big deal:
The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November.
Despite a decent stock market, Trump’s trial, and Biden putting out ads in the battleground states, it’s unchanged.
Do you know what else raised flags for me?
The poll didn’t include RFK Jr. (third-party), Jill Stein (Green Party), Cornel West (third-party), or Lars Mapstead (Libertarian Party), although the October poll had them listed.
Even without those people, Biden still didn’t do well.
The latest poll also separated the question “Thinking about the upcoming presidential election in 2024, if the election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?” into two parts: includes and excludes leaners.
Another question asked is whether Trump is wrong for democracy. However, I cannot find any question asking if Biden is bad for democracy.
They seemed to try really hard to make Biden come out on top!
Vice President Kamala Harris might want to cool it with abortion and cries of democracy because all of the respondents are more concerned about economics.
They all consider the economy poor. They all trust Trump more than Biden on the economy, immigration, national security, and the Gaza War.
31% of the respondents want to make it harder for people to seek asylum in America. 39% want to build a wall!
Biden wins the 18-29 age group by 1%: 47% to 46%.
Biden has more support among blacks and Hispanics, but the support has eroded. Trump wins with “others” under race/ethnicity.
But 22% of the black respondents support Trump. According to The New York Times, “that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.”
All the states agreed that Biden was too old to be an effective president, but they all disagreed that Trump was too old to be an effective president.
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Comments
This will be funny in Michigan, one group in and around Detroit will be buying KY.
As Rush said, ‘voter suppression polls…’
Obama doesn’t deserve a 4th term…
Public opinion isn’t serious and changes with the day. A vote requires a moment of madness when you commit yourself that is quite different from a poll.
Journalist has the same root as diurnal.
That is why we have an Electoral College.
Since this is a NY Times poll, I would imagine that it probably oversamples Democrat voters.
Obviously, polls can’t predict what will happen in November, but my guess is this poll probably indicates that the anti-Trump vote is not as strong as it was in 2020.
In 2020 the media did a good job of portraying Biden as a typical moderate Democrat that would govern in the manner of Bill Clinton. Instead, they see a radical Obama/Sanders agenda that rightfully scares a great many voters who either voted for Biden or just against Trump.
Many of the Democrat/media propaganda campaigns against Trump starting with Russia gate and most recently the rapidly imploding lawfare prosecutions have been proven false or nakedly partisan frame jobs.
As a wise man once said, you can fool all of the people some of time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.
Oversampling Democrats is good mathematics. You put the samples where the most variation is. If all Republicans voted alike, for example, you’d need only one Republican sample an any poll.
You correct the poll for oversampling after you’re done, and get a more accurate poll for that many samples as a result.
You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but if you can do it just once, it lasts for four years. – Roger Price (1950s)
The polls are meaningless. We have seen that again and again. The only meaningful question is “what is the maximum percentage of the vote that the Democrats can rig in the swing states? 10%? 15%?
Michigan is already stolen, and so is Pennsylvania. I don’t know the weight of Atlanta against the rest of the state but Georgia is almost certainly stolen as well.
Trump won in 16 because the Democrats were unprepared for Hillary’s inability to turn out the vote. They weren’t prepared to steal enough. That didn’t happen in 20, and it won’t happen in 24. The only question is how many cities will have more Biden voters than registered voters…
Your analysis is right on. Yet, this isn’t the Tea Party any more; the opposition players have figured out that the other guys cheat, well beyond Brady’s deflated balls.
The RNC head declaring a get out the vote effort, mail in voting, legal challenges and poll watchers t-ed up, it’s a different game. Whatever happens, it’s gonna be fun to watch.
/moar popcorn.
In my opinion another key factor is there will not be as much opposition from the GOP establishment. When Bill Barr came out a few weeks ago and said he would vote for Trump and all Republicans should do the same to save our country, that was a clear message to the country club set that team Bush is not opposing Trump this time.
That will be important when election suits are filed by the RNC and their election observers. I predict that team Trump will find a much mor receptive judicial response than in 2020.
I’m hoping that there are enough of the “right kinds of people” in the right places within the GOP that stealing this election will be orders of magnitude harder, if not impossible, than last time.
Quite literally the free world is riding on the right result in election months this year!!
Legit worried for Trump because the Deep State has thrown everything at him and it’s only made him stronger. They won’t like that.
I do not doubt the willingness of the Left to create a Gaius Julius Caesar moment.
Subotai Bahadur
The conspirators went for it because they thought what came next would be fine for them. Our current conspirators haven’t gone for it just yet, because they aren’t so sure what happens next; they might not be fine.
I don’t think they get quite how much The Orange Crush is in the way, protecting them.
Of the five states listed in the article only Georgia does not have a democrat senator up for election as well. I can see boat loads of cash going into those states.
Seems to me that if the GOP starts regularly picking up at least 30% of the black vote, the Dems will never legitimately win another national election again.
It takes less than that. They know it. They’ve known it for a while.
That’s why they’re grooming border-jumpers.
I’m patiently waiting for Lars Mapstead to gain momentum despite the fact that he has been unknown to me until 48 seconds ago.
worth noting is each of the states has a dem senate candidate leading decisively in each states poll.
Not looking good for the GOP based on that poll
just to be clear, The presidential race rarely differs by more than 2-3% from the senate race. If the party’s senate race is a +5%, then worse that can be expected for the president of the same party is +2%. Most of the senate races in those 5 states is +8-10%.
Red wave polls were big also. I’ll wait until the final tabulations.
Which will likely be 4-7 days after election day in some of these same states. Totally legit like last time. 🙄
“All the states agreed that Biden was too old to be an effective president, but they all disagreed that Trump was too old to be an effective president.”
That’s because old is a relative term.
On the one hand you have bread.
On the other, you have bourbon.
Joe is broccoli.
They’re asking the wrong question.
Its not the age, its the capacity. Mental and Physical. Senile, frail, Joe isn’t capable on either count.
I’ve seen healthier looking people in caskets at a wake.
And, he was always dumb as a bag of hair, but the senile dementia has rotted most of what little he had.
If he weren’t POTUS, he’d be in a nursing home, and they wouldn’t trust him to properly fasten his Depends.
“Voters don’t matter, only ballots matter.”
I take the D’s at their word on this.
They didn’t bother campaigning last time, and they aren’t campaigning this time either. They don’t need voters, they control the ballots and they know that’s all that matters.
As Ive said numerous times, laws only mean something if the will to enforce them is present. Democrats have shown us that there is no will to enforce all laws on their behalf since they benefit the most from those laws not being enforced.
Polls never factor in the Dem’s ability to cheat
One thing about those states? All of them had serious questions raised regarding the vote back in 2020.
we must get John Eastman’s recent speech on election fraud out there! https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/2-6-13/
If the right is not in the ballot counting rooms, armed to the teeth and refusing to take any shit none of this matters.
They ARE ALREADY CHEATING.
Don’t crow until we see Trump taking the oath of office on Jan. 21, 2025. I say this not only as someone who would’ve rather seen a President Cruz or other GOP candidate; but also as one who would vote for the Donald over any possible Democrat and one who thoroughly loathes the Obama presidency and its residue.
These polls are all within the margin of error.
you can take your polls and shove them
your maga votes dont count no more
even when you lose
the left owns the swamp>>>>msm schools etc
and the gop wont decouple our tax money from those socialist institutions
here is the real poll:
do you believe that cheating is possible when it comes to counting the votes and then the medias ability to deliver the truth?
Mark Pomerantz published People vs. Donald Trump last year to describe his role as a special assistant district attorney in Manhattan, trying to prosecute the former president, and to complain about an initial decision in the DA’s office not to file charges. I didn’t notice it until I saw Pomerantz taking the fifth over and over again in response to recent questions about his behavior during the investigation, but I bought a copy this week — a used copy, to avoid sending money to Mark Pomerantz.
https://chrisbray.substack.com/p/mark-pomerantz-revealed-the-madness
The term “winning” has now been changed by the dems ( speaker johnson approving)
winning will hereforth and laterforeth commence up to 3 weeks after the closing of the stated election day or when enough votes are found to satisfactorily satisfied said pre determined winner of said and/or stated
election /office of our choosing
if there are any. questions
please feel free to submit them to the
office of maxine waters
This is the problem isnt it. Democrats can see the writing on the wall so the steal will be out in force come election months this year! Vote by mail will be a god send for them, as its so much easier to steal an election when people dont have to turn up in person to vote.
And this is where the Democrat media will come in to their own. They will ensure anything to do with steal an election is declared verboten and put all the gate guards in place to ensure any story around stolen election will not see the light of day.