New Assessments Indicate Iceland Volcanic Eruption Threat Decreased 90% as Magma Dike Solidified

New Assessments Indicate Iceland Volcanic Eruption Threat Decreased 90% as Magma Dike Solidified

We have been following the reports of the volcanic activity in Iceland, which led to an evacuation of a town and closure of the famous Blue Lagoon tourist spot.

The island nation, which sits on top of both a volcanic “hot spot” and a region of tectonic plate separation, may be in luck.

A geophysics professor in Iceland, Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, projects that the threat of eruption has decreased by 90%.

Speaking to the Iceland Monitor, Guðmundsson likened the magma’s decomposition at the edges of the magma channel to “water that’s put inside a fifty-degree frost.”

He explained: “This doesn’t preclude that there’s still something left and that there’s still an open way the magma could go upwards, if more magma accumulates. But the likelihood of an eruption has become considerably lower than it was, among other things, because of this.”

The reduced likelihood of an eruption is attributed to the dike’s 90% solidification over the past two weeks, per the publication.

Life in the evacuated town is slowly returning to normal.

The Suðurnes Chief Police has permitted businesses in Grindavík to operate longer than before. Companies are allowed to run until 9 pm.

The town is open at 7 am every day for inhabitants and businesses, although individuals must leave before 5 pm. Other personnel are banned from entry. People entering Grindavík are not escorted, although first responders are on standby.

However, while the town may be “safe,” magma may be heading elsewhere.

When magma first propagated through the weak point in the Earth’s crust near Grindavik, it was thought to have been within a half mile of the surface, and was being fed by a horizontal intrusion of magma under Svartsengi—around 6 miles in diameter and which has been pushing the ground up by around a centimeter (nearly half an inch) a day.

The Icelandic Met Office said on Wednesday that modeling suggested the flow of magma into the vertical dike had ceased, while it was still accumulating under Svartsengi, meaning “a new chapter may have begun with an increased chance of a new magma propagation and, subsequently, increased likelihood of an eruption.”

In other geology news, the death toll from a volcanic eruption in Indonesia has risen to 23.

Rescuers searching the hazardous slopes of Indonesia’s Mount Marapi volcano found the body of the last climber determined missing after being caught in a surprise eruption over the weekend.

Mount Marapi on the island of Sumatra spewed an ash tower 9,800 feet — taller than the volcano itself — into the sky on Sunday. About 75 climbers who had started their way up the mountain on Saturday became stranded, and about 52 of them were rescued after the initial eruption, while 11 more were initially confirmed dead. New eruptions spewed additional columns of hot ash into the air on Monday and Tuesday, reducing visibility and temporarily halting the search and recovery operations, said Abdul Malik, chief of the Padang Search and Rescue Agency.

Hundreds of rescuers have worked for days to find missing hikers. The National Search and Rescue Agency said bodies of two climbers were found on Monday and nine more were found the next day.

“Nine of 10 missing victims were found dead this afternoon and at the moment, they are being evacuated. There is one remaining victim currently in the search,” Malik told AFP on Tuesday.

Finally, scientists have discovered a new fault line in Canada that could trigger a tsunami that could slam into the Northwest U.S.

Scientists have found an approximately 45-mile-long fracture in the Earth that runs through British Columbia in Canada and escaped detection for thousands of years.

Experts suspect that because of the layout of the fault it could spark a large earthquake in Canada.

The quake’s effects could generate a tsunami in the area around the Georgia Basin, which could hit parts of Washington, as well as British Columbia.

The discovery was made by a team that included Nick Harrichhausen, a postdoctoral researcher at the Université Grenoble Alpes in France.

It’s worthwhile to look at the real science related to true drivers of climate change . . . and to be aware of the banality of those promoting the climate cult narrative.

The phrase "tipping point" has become ubiquitous in climate change fear-mongering, suggesting the unscientific potential for abrupt and irreversible shifts in the Earth's systems that are not recorded in the geologic record.

I used the Web of Science database to search for…

— Dr. Matthew M. Wielicki (@MatthewWielicki) December 8, 2023

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