Dems Likely To Pick Up Seat Under Alabama Congressional Redistricting Map Selected By Three-Judge Panel
Black voters — who all sides appear to believe will heavily vote Democrat – are now a majority in one district, and a near-majority in a second district. “The Office of the Secretary of State will facilitate the 2024 election cycle in accordance with the map the federal court has forced upon Alabama and ordered us to use,”
The saga of Alabama congressional redistricting likely has come to an end, with Democrats likely to pick up a seat. The dispute has been over creating a second district in which the candidate preferred by black voters (Democrat) was likely to win. See these posts for background:
- Alabama Congressional Redistricting Back To The Drawing Board, Court Throws Out Legislative Map Again
- Dems Likely To Pick Up Second Alabama Congressional Seat As SCOTUS Refuses To Stop New Map Selection
As reflected in that last link, a special master selected by the three-judge panel proposed three maps for a new District 2, all of which had varying likelihoods of favoring Democrats: District 2 has a Black voting age population of 50.1% on Remedial Plan 1, 48.5% on Remedial Plan 2, and 48.7% on Remedial Plan 3.
The Court today picked Remedial Plan 3.
Under the map that was accepted by Thursday’s order, Black voters comprise 48.7% of the voting age population in one district and 51.9% of the voting age population in a second district.
The map that will be used in the 2024 election is likely to see Democrats win an additional seat in Alabama, given that Black voters there favor Democrats.
“The Office of the Secretary of State will facilitate the 2024 election cycle in accordance with the map the federal court has forced upon Alabama and ordered us to use,” Secretary of State Wes Allen said in a statement.
“It is important for all Alabamians to know that the legal portion of this process has not yet been completed. A full hearing on the redistricting issue will take place in the future and I trust Attorney General Marshall to represent Alabama through that process,” Allen said. “In the meantime, I will keep our state’s elections safe, secure and transparent because that is what I was elected to do.”
Black voters — who all sides appear to believe will heavily vote Democrat – are now a majority in one district, and a near-majority in a second district.
NEW: a federal court just selected Alabama's new congressional map, featuring an additional Black majority district. Under the remedial plan, #AL02 swings from Trump +29 to Biden +12, virtually assuring a Dem pickup. pic.twitter.com/9sXRVGwELB
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 5, 2023
You can read the Court’s Order below.
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and in other news:
https://www.newsweek.com/2023/10/13/exclusive-fbi-targets-trump-followers-2024-election-nears-1831836.html
funny how the courts know blacks are dims
We now have color districts.
We have since the voting rights act. Uncle Sugar finds a way to set aside districts for the coloured. Their reasoning is that no coloured candidate can be elected on merit.
As a voter in Alabama’s 2nd CD who grew up here and moved back not quite 3 years ago I offer the following local perspective. It’s not a sure thing for a Biden pick-up. Very rural area, hunting and fishing for the table not for trophies, farms, timber, light manufacturing, processing plants, electricity from a local co-op. IOW people still work with their hands and are still close to the land. This profile cuts across demographics. All in all the CD is a pretty common sense area where Aldean’s ‘Try That in a Small Town’ fits right in, again cutting across the demographics. Less racial division and drama in these rural areas; most towns have only a single HS so everyone’s children attend them and segregation died out many decades ago, longer than I’ve been alive. Everyone in these small towns; Parents, alumni, local business owners are all still active and invested in the schools, youth sports leagues like it was in the ’70s.
Bottom line is with the right candidate talking about bringing folks together to work for common best interests and without lots of personal baggage (Very Heavy Church attendance here, practically mandatory for a small business or professional) this is a very winnable CD for the GoP. Figure a GoP win in wave elections and about 35/65 odds against a GoP win, maybe a little better in normal election cycles depending on turnout.
I think the closest I may have been to district two was a few visits to Demopolis and Slocumb-near Dothan. Everything else was north of Birmingham.
I forgot, one trip to Eufaula back in the mid 80s. Pretty little town. A trifle humid in late July.
Just a trifle. ☺ August is the real deal breaker for those who don’t like humidity. Usually rains a little shower in the late afternoons and early morning near daily during August in S Alabama. The humidity is a feeling like the warm blanket of a Mother’s embrace…. can’t ever make your Mother stop giving you hug,,, she’s gonna do it whether you want it or not. Gonna be humid down here like it not so if you can’t accept it this isn’t the place for you. This year we were unusually dry but when it did rain the humidity pushed the heat index above 112 up from the low 100s actual temp very routinely.
If you play golf there’s a series of courses designed by Robert Trent Jones running across the State from South to North along I65. Bama has beaches on the Gulf and the Appalachian Mountains(ish) in the North with lots of hunting, fishing, biking, hiking, canoeing, water sports in between. Plus pretty good football, even at the HS level.
It has a bunch of attractive options if you like outdoor activities. Don’t come and stay though. Just come to visit with your tourist $.
Commo chief – thanks for a reasonable non – partisan analysis.
I did spent a summer in demopolis in the late 1970’s so I have some familiarity with the area. One observation was the black families, especially the older families, I dealt with tended to be very responsible and proud of their accomplishments in spite of the discrimination they faced in the past.
Regardless of the politics involved in drawing the proposed district maps , I do have congradulate the judges in drawing districts without the extreme jerrymandering typical in many states.
For the record, Demopolis isn’t in the 2nd CD. It’s in the 7th in the very Northern edge of Marengo County. It sits astride the Black.Warrior River and the Tombigbee River dang near to Mississippi.
It is beautiful there as with many areas of Bama with decent folks trying to make a living who still, for the most part, care about the community.
Mandating X number of black majority districts smells like affirmative action.
Smells like discrimination
After the speakership stunt, methinks the Ds are going to pick up plenty of seats. Not that I want to see it happen, but the Rs have decided (apologies to the MASH movie) that suicide is easy.
You know, only 8 republicans voted to out the Speaker…right?
I fully realize that but I don’t think it matters, politically speaking. Look, about 25% of the public is D, 25% is R, and 50% is neither but leans in one direction or the other. We don’t really see it in elections as much as we should, but the reality is that non-stalwarts (many if not most relatively unengaged) hold the keys in many ways.
The Republican Party is fragmented and leaderless, and has done a terrible job of articulating any sort of coherent, simple approach to governing that’s understandable to people who don’t follow every twist and turn like the commenters here do. The Democrats have their own serious problems, but they have the media to smooth them out. Of course, the media are increasingly and rightly distrusted, so the Ds are vulnerable too.
Between Trump, who is visibly insane, and Gaetz and his crew, who are babies, the Republicans are booting away what ought to be a big victory year in ’24. It’s hard to believe they could be this stupid, this suicidal, but they are. Is it something in the water?
These judges apparently can’t resist the temptation to sit as super-legislators.
Since States run their own elections and the Legislatures draw the maps how about the Feds and Courts stay the hell out? Everything went to hell with Federalism when SCOTUS just seized authority it didn’t have and Congress didn’t reel them back in.
… subject to federal law. Congress has the ultimate authority over congressional elections, and it has made laws, which the courts — including a majority even on the current SCOTUS — have interpreted in a rather perverse way.