Dems Likely To Pick Up Second Alabama Congressional Seat As SCOTUS Refuses To Stop New Map Selection
So the three-judge panel will pick a map, and Democrats likely will pick up a seat.
Last we checked in on the Alabama congressional redistricting, a three-judge panel had thrown out a second set of maps drawn by the Alabama legislature after that same panel (affirmed by the U.S. Supreme Court) threw out the first set of maps. The issue is whether having two Black-majority or “opportunity” (and therefore presmptively Democrat) districts was required. The maps redrawn by the legislature appeared to comply with prior court rulings, in my view, but the panel disagreed.
In reality, this is not about race or voting rights. It’s about political control with Democrats desperate to pick up a second Alabama seat.
We covered the story in Alabama Congressional Redistricting Back To The Drawing Board, Court Throws Out Legislative Map Again:
A three-judge panel has thrown out Alabama’s congressional district map that was recently redrawn by the legislature after a trip to the Supreme Court. The redrawn map maintained the one majority Black district but only by a 51% majority Black voting age population, down from 56%, but it also increased the Black voting age population in another district from 30% to 40%. The issue was whether that complied with a prior three-judge panel ruling affirmed by the Supreme Court.
Alabama sought an emergency stay from the U.S. Supreme Court.
While that application for a stay was pending, the panel appointed a special master to redraw the maps. Three maps were submitted yesterday:
Special Master Richard Allen submitted three proposed Alabama congressional district maps to a three-judge federal district court on Monday, the deadline set by the court.
In a report to the court, Allen said all three maps provide two districts where Black voters have an opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice, as instructed by the court….
On Allen’s three maps, drawn by court-appointed cartographer David Ely, District 2 is the second opportunity district.
District 2 has a Black voting age population of 50.1% on Remedial Plan 1, 48.5% on Remedial Plan 2, and 48.7% on Remedial Plan 3.
Allen’s report includes an election analysis to show District 2 is an opportunity district for Black voters. It shows that the Black-preferred candidate would have won in 15 of 17 elections in District 2 under Remedial Plan 1, in 13 of 17 under Remedial Plan 2, and in 16 of 17 under Remedial Plan 3.
In District 7, the Black-preferred candidate would have won all 17 elections by an average margin of 29% on all three remedial plans.
Parties in the case have three days to file objections to the court’s maps. The judges have scheduled a hearing for Oct. 3….
The key issue is whether Alabama’s congressional map, with one majority Black district out of seven, dilutes the influence of Black voters in a state where one-fourth of residents are Black.
Today the Supreme Court declined to issue a stay in two Orders (here and here) in the companion cases, neither of which had an explanation or dissent.
So the three-judge panel will pick a map, and Democrats likely will pick up a seat.
🚨BREAKING: U.S. Supreme Court DENIES Alabama's effort to use its illegal congressional map. This guarantees a new map with two Black opportunity districts will be in place for 2024. Congrats to @RedistrictFdn, ELG team and voters of Alabama! https://t.co/tSwRMR5Bhq
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) September 26, 2023
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Comments
The Supreme Court is such a disappointment
Actually, the judiciary is the only branch of government operating in accordance with its Constitutional mandate. Sorry if this disappoints you.
Yeah. Court-enforced Affirmative Action districts are so constitutional.
Yes, overruling Roe v. Wade and all the decisions affirming the 2nd Amendment were such a disappointment. Get a life. Please.
The decisions we’ve gotten are appeasement decisions. The structural ones that matter long-term are still going the other way.
Example, this case.
Variation on what I asked about contract setasides yesterday or so: when will black candidates step forward and say they wish to run on their own merits?
The GOP can just carpetbag in a couple of candidates. I hear Allen West is looking for a job.
No thanks y’all can keep him in TX and either return him to office or not.
I’ll take “not”. We have enough problems with Phelan. We don’t need that carpetbagging rabble-rouser hanging around causing problems.
Still a few butt-hurt West fans left, I see. Abbott: 66%, West; 12%. Get over it.
Safe Bet: If the Dems do pick up the seat, the voters in that district will get the quality of representation they so richly deserve. (*sarcastic eye roll*)
Not all of them.
Under all three of these proposed remedial plans I will be in the 2nd CD which under the best case of the three plans means I have a 4/17 opportunity to elect the representatives of my choice to use the logic of the plaintiffs. Meh. There are some demographic trends/variables at play which may not pan out as the plaintiffs hope. We shall see.
The interesting thing, to me at least, being ignored is the voter registration data. Under the plan proposed by the State the voter registration would be 46%+ d/prog. Which while not a majority ‘minority’ (it was only a bit over 41% ‘black’) it was probably more competitive in terms of voter registration than these three alternatives. Dismissal of voter registration data when developing a CD for the purpose of ensuring ‘plaintiffs have an opportunity to elect the representatives of their choice’ seems odd.
Somebody (I didn’t bookmark it and don’t remember who) speculated a couple of months ago, that with the dispersal of the black vote, it’s possible that the Dems could actually lose both seats.
That was under the State plan which was rejected. It created one true ‘minority majority’ CD and the second as a competitive CD/within margin of error as a roughly 41% ‘black’ but with a 46%+ d/prog voter registration.
To me, ignoring and/or downplaying the voter registration aspect is a direct substitution of ‘race’ for party. The entire edifice of majority minorities CD is nearing the end of it’s life cycle both from a legal or constitutional aspect and from a practical aspect. Should a reliable 20% + GoP voters emerge within the ‘minority majority’ CDs the game is basically done.
I saw yesterday that Dick Brewbaker thinks the GOP has a chance in CD2 if Republicans show up to vote. Is that just wishful thinking? I suppose Reed will be the Democrat. I live in Aderholt’s district so I know about your area but I’m not up to date
In a true wave election environment of a Presidential election cycle yes absolutely the GoP will win under those circumstances, IMO. In a basic, boring midterm cycle with a less than appealing candidate? Not so much. That’s the short term.
Longer term there is reason for optimism. Outside of Montgomery the proposed 2nd CD is very rural, lots of small towns, timber, small to medium size farms, processing plants some light manufacturing. IOW people who still make a living with their hands and use common sense v trendy academic jargon, keep a garden, hunt and fish. The majority still attend church, far more old school ‘fire and brimstone’ v touchy feely services. Not much support for ultra lefty crap like their current hobby horse of ‘trans rights’. Those cut across party and ‘racial’ lines It wouldn’t surprise me if the southern ‘minority majority’ CD begin to trend away from d/prog over the next several election cycles as the d/prog continue to venture way too far afield for most folks.
Why not just ban Republicans from running for certain offices until the correct political balance is achieved?
For the Democrats that would be banning all non-Leftist/non-Progressives from running for any office any where for all time. The Democrats want a one party Marxist nation modeled on George Orwell’s “1984“.