I traveled to Montgomery, Alabama, in early June to give a lecture for the local chapter of the Federalist Society, The Equal Protection Project: Challenging DEI Discrimination. The lecture was not recorded, unfortunately.
In connection with the visit, I was able to appear on the Michael Yafee Show on News Talk 770 AM to talk about EPP and also the then-recent Voting Rights Act decision by the Supreme Court.
The SCOTUS decision widely was assumed in the media to mean at least one Democrat pick up in an Alabama congressional delegation that currently has only one Democrat, since the ruling likely would add a second majority-black district:
The court’s ruling on Thursday has national political implications in Alabama and three other states where Democrats would be likely to capture additional congressional seats if lawsuits over those states’ maps are decided their way.
The ruling paves the way for a federal trial in the Alabama case, where a lower court has already said that advocates calling for a second majority-Black congressional district in the state are likely to win.
I don’t know anything about Alabama politics, so I was quite surprised during my radio interview when Yafee mentioned that this could backfire on the Democrats and result in Republicans picking up a seat.
(If player doesn’t load, click here)
I hadn’t thought about it much since then, until I saw this tweet by Alex Schriver at Targeted Victory, a Republican-sided communications shop, linking to a WaPo article:
From the linked WaPo article:
In Alabama, Reps. Jerry L. Carl and Barry Moore — both first elected in 2020 — have contiguous districts just beneath the state’s “Black Belt” — named for its fertile black soil that is also an area where many of the state’s Black voters live — where the new district is most likely to be drawn….Insiders in both parties have cautioned that rather than just carving out another safe Democratic district, Republicans in Alabama might just try to draw up their state’s seven districts in a fashion whereby Black voters would turn a few of those seats into competitive battlegrounds but not guaranteeing a winner for either party.They note that Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, in his concurring opinion, left open the possibility that having competitive seats where Black voters have clout, but not a definite outcome, would meet his own test for adhering to the voting law.Such a scenario would actually give Republicans the chance to sweep every seat in the state.“Don’t count out 7-0,” Alex Schriver, a GOP consultant from Alabama, said.
Since I still don’t know much about Alabama politics, I still can’t assess the likelihood of the Democrats’ SCOTUS Voting Rights Act win costing them a congressional seat in Alabama. But now I’m intrigued.
If there are any Alabama readers here, post your insights in the comments.
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