New Polling Suggests a Third Party Candidate Would Pose a Serious Threat to Joe Biden
“many Democrats feel that the Green Party’s Jill Stein siphoned votes from Hillary Clinton in 2016”
In case you haven’t noticed, Democrats and the media are pretty determined to prevent the possibility of a third-party candidate. The candidacy of Cornel West is already being criticized, and Democrats in Arizona are actually suing to keep a ‘No Labels’ candidate off the ballot.
A new poll from Emerson College puts the issue in perspective:
June 2023 National Poll: Third Party Candidacy Could Derail President Biden’s Reelection Bid
The June 2023 Emerson College Polling national survey of voters finds President Joe Biden with a 41% job approval, and 51% disapproval. His approval is consistent with his approval in the April 2023 national poll, while his disapproval increased two percentage points, from 49% to 51%.
In the 2024 Democratic Primary, Biden holds 73% of the vote, while 15% plan to support Robert Kennedy Jr., and 3% Marianne Williamson. Ten percent plan to vote for someone else…
If third party candidate Cornel West was to appear on the ballot with Trump and Biden, Biden’s support decreases to 40%, Trump to 41%, and West holds 6%. Seven percent would vote for someone else and the share of undecided voters increases to 6%.
“When West is added to the ballot test, he pulls 15% of support from Black voters, and 13% from voters under 35, two key voting blocs for President Biden,” Kimball noted.
The Washington Free Beacon has more:
The findings will likely add to Democrats’ fears that West will siphon votes away from Biden. Politico reported early this month that party members were already worried about a third-party candidacy, noting that “many Democrats feel that the Green Party’s Jill Stein siphoned votes from Hillary Clinton in 2016.”
West, whose website touts his support for universal health care, universal student loan cancellation, drug decriminalization, an end to “mass incarceration,” and the disbanding of NATO, originally said that he is running for the nomination of the small People’s Party. He announced last week that he is also seeking the Green Party’s nomination, “in the spirit of a broad United Front and coalition strategy.”
While the People’s Party only has ballot access in one state, the Green Party in 2020 was on the ballot in 31 states and territories, according to former Green candidate Howie Hawkins. That number could increase in 2024.
Expect Democrats and the media to go into overdrive to prevent this from happening.
For all of their talk about respecting ‘our democracy,’ they care far more about winning and retaining power.
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Comments
Libertarians must be feeling slighted.
I’d love to see a right-wing billionaire secretly fund the LOVE party. Its platform would hold that transsexual and gay rights have not gone far enough. Immediate nuclear disarmament, the abolition of fossil fuels and meat, and the constitutional right to free sex surgeries would be must-haves. It would siphon off enough loonies and women to ensure a Republican victory.
There are assumptions in the poll results reported, if indeed it was a real poll.
The main one is that the electoral results to be posted in November 2024 [assuming we actually have an election] will have any bearing at all on the actual numbers of votes cast by both legal American voters and non-legal voters.
The last two general elections were not notable for electoral integrity nor for transparency. And nothing has been done to improve things since, by anyone of those in power regardless of party designation.
Subotai Bahadur
A potted plant would pose a severe threat…
Or perhaps an empty chair
Sorry folks, false alarm: the 2024 votes have already been counted, and I’m afraid that Biden/Harris has won a second term. We have previews of Biden’s victory speech, in which he will express gratitude to Mr. Soros, Dominion Voting Systems, Merrick Garland and the many RINOs who complained, but were careful about not doing much of any electoral consequence. Biden intends to attend the Inaugural DragQueen Victory Ball dressed as . . .
Vote Dem 2024 (mail-in voting is currently open)!!
This would be funnier if it wasn’t so close to the truth.
with Buyden’s luck there will be another Titantic sub disaster that the Media can sweep any real news under the rug with.
It wasn’t luck. There is always some exciting news available if the “news media” want to talk about it.
If they don’t want to talk about something there is always something else to talk about.
I’m more afraid of the bigger picture. We know the current president* is nothing but a puppet for the Dems. He speaks the lines they give him, shows up in the few places where he needs to, and generally holds the role of King Log. He will inevitably lose in November, BUT if say around late September/early October he has some sort of medical issue that makes him vanish from public view, the Dems will milk that sympathy vote like a socialist cow. They could easily win both houses *and* the Presidency by chanting “Do it for Joe” while their printing presses hammer out party-line ballots and anybody who speaks up against him is buried in hatred and bile. Then on January 21, he steps down from his hospital bed without a camera in sight, the VP takes office, and whatever political hack they want gets eased into her spot, greased into position by the new Dem House and Senate.
Then the reprisals will fire off in earnest. The Party will never relinquish their grasp on power.
I happen to think the opposite – the Dems have 2024 in the bag unless some real thermonuclear disaster happens in the Ukraine War – which could happen.
“We know the current president* is nothing but a puppet for the Dems.”
If that is so, then why does Biden keep doing things that make Dems look terrible, and which make Trump look even better in comparison?
Because the positions of the fundamentalist Progressives make them look terrible.
A talking bird would pose a significant threat to BUYden reelection. It’s never about the figurehead with the left it’s always about power.
Well, we know Bernie has been paid off.
Can that Kennedy be a threat?
RFK Jr. already has quite a bit of money. I imagine they would use intimidation rather than money to neutralize him. But this is a guy who lost a father to assassination and a wife to suicide (I believe). It’s going to be hard for them to rattle him. I imagine they will try and intimidate his wife.
I remember 1992, where Ross Perot was a spoiler that gave Clinton the Presidency with 43% of the vote. For all the bellyaching about some fringe guy who won’t actually get more than 1% (current polls notwithstanding), like Cornel West, Joe Manchin could peel off a significant share of potential Trump voters – particularly the ones who are more anti-Biden than pro-Trump, and dislike them both. He could also pick up disaffected Democrats who feel their party has embraced wackos too much and actually win states, driving the contest to the House. 2025 will be the 200th anniversary of the last time this happened – a bad omen.
The only reason I might care is if that third party could actually supplant the Democrats. With 3 parties actually going at it, we might yet break down the Uniparty.
I would remind those who think like this article indicates that you should be careful what you wish for. There are a lot of disgruntled Rs in this pot who along with indies and disgruntled Dems may end up with a sizable vote count. One thing that could hurt Trump is negative news fatigue where he gets nothing but negative news and the public just gets tired of it. Then the weak or fence-sitting Rs may go for a third party too if is someone credible. Say a Rick Scott or Tucker Carlson. This can easily turn into the Perot effect and elect the wrong guy.
Neither Rick Scott nor Tucker Carlson will run.
Back in 2016 I wondered about the Jill Stein effect. I looked at votes in the norther Mid-West where DJT won states unespectedly. When I looked at those numbers, at least one (and I don’t recall which) and maybe 2 of them would have gone to Hillary! if Stein was not on the ballot. That assumes that all of, or most of, Stein’s voters would have chosen Clinton over Trump; I think that’s a safe assumption. Clinton would have won those states and the resulting Electoral College vote would have made her president.
I don’t see how anyone had to “feel” that she drew votes from HRC, I found it obvious.
I would think that she would have received at least some mark of appreciation for her efforts…. maybe flowers and chocolates from the MAGA crowd in an unending stream. I heard of nothing of the sort.
Maybe because she let Hillary use her like a rented hooker to challenge the count in several states that Hillary might have won but Jill had no chance of winning whatsoever.
Back in 2016 I wondered about the Jill Stein effect. I looked at votes in the northern Mid-West where DJT won states unexpectedly. When I looked at those numbers, at least one (and I don’t recall which) and maybe 2 of them would have gone to Hillary! if Stein was not on the ballot. That assumes that all of, or most of, Stein’s voters would have chosen Clinton over Trump; I think that’s a safe assumption. Clinton would have won those states and the resulting Electoral College vote would have made her president.
I don’t see how anyone had to “feel” that she drew votes from HRC, I found it obvious.
I would think that she would have received at least some mark of appreciation for her efforts…. maybe flowers and chocolates from the MAGA crowd in an unending stream. I heard of nothing of the sort.
So now they BOTH come up. Feel free to delete the one with the spelling errors.
What you are missing about that is how inevitable people thought Hillary’s victory was.
Jill Stein’s voters would have had to thought that Hillary might lose, or be motivated by say Hillary actually showing up in their state to vote Hillary to have shown up in a Jill Stein free environment.
Ultimately Hillary making major strategic blunders in the campaign is why she lost, the third party just happened to be there to benefit (note how poorly the third parties did in 2020 in comparison).
Had Stein not been on the ballot her voters would have either defaulted to Clinton (lesser of evils) or stayed home. I cannot see “Green” voters defaulting to DJT; I doubt many disliked Clinton that much. I still see Stein’s presence, even to draw protest votes against Clinton (disgruntled Sanders supporters?) was a strong, if not determining, factor.
If I had the numbers at hand, it might –might — be interesting to see what theoretical percentage of Stein’s votes would have to go to Clinton for her to win… But, water under the bridge.