Republican Kevin Kiley Wins CA House Race, Increasing GOP Majority to 220
“Republican Kevin Kiley defeated Democratic challenger Kermit Jones to win California’s 3rd Congressional seat”
The race for California’s 3rd Congressional District has finally been called, and Republican Kevin Kiley won, bringing the GOP’s House majority to 220. Ironically, that’s the same majority number Democrats currently hold.
The big red wave may not have materialized, but at least Republicans have definitively won the House.
The Hill reports:
Republican House majority climbs to 220 with win in California
Republicans’ House majority in the next Congress climbed to 220 on Tuesday, when Republican Kevin Kiley defeated his Democratic opponent, Kermit Jones, in the tight race for California’s 3rd Congressional District.
The Associated Press called the race for Kiley on Tuesday afternoon, two weeks after voters headed to the polls to cast their ballots in the eastern California district. Kiley, a California State Assembly member, won with 53 percent of the vote.
Kiley’s win brings Republicans’ House majority to 220, while Democrats currently hold 212 seats. Three races are still uncalled by the AP: California’s 13th District, Alaska’s at-large district and Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R) Colorado district.
While the AP has not called Boebert’s race, which appears headed for a recount with Boebert holding a slight edge, her Democratic challenger Adam Frisch conceded on Friday, saying he believed the outcome of the election was unlikely to change.
Kiley is a Trump-backed candidate.
The Washington Examiner reported:
Trump-backed Republican wins in California, boosting House majority to 220 seats
Republican Kevin Kiley defeated Democratic challenger Kermit Jones to win California’s 3rd Congressional seat, raising the GOP’s House majority to 220 seats.
Kiley won the race with 52.8% compared to Jones’s 47.2%, with 84% of the vote counted. The Republican announced on Twitter last week that he had won the race, claiming that his win secured a House majority for Republicans before it was officially called…
Kiley, who was endorsed by Donald Trump, was one of the former president’s few successes in the 2022 midterm elections. Several Republican leaders, who were expecting a red wave, blamed Trump for their less-than-expected outcomes after the party failed to flip the Senate or win the House majority by as wide of a margin as projected.
The California Republican received a lot of support after targeting the country’s rising crime and inflation rates, a campaign platform used by many Republicans to sway voters.
Kiley tweeted this before his race was officially called, but now it’s a sure thing.
The Pelosi Speakership is over.
— Kevin Kiley (@KevinKileyCA) November 17, 2022
Featured image via YouTube.
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Comments
Damn! I’m gonna go out and buy another turkey.
Dont forget people that according to Danny this is a Trump loss 😂😂😂
The CD Boebert is competing in had a voter registration profile as follows as of 1 September 2022:
44% independent
24% d/prog
32% r
With an 8% voter registration advantage over d/prog Boebert is in a very tight race. She likely does win, but she would be expected to win with that advantage.
Why is it this close? If she merely splits the independent voters 50/50 with her opponent and is able to turn out the r voters then she should win in a landslide. 32% r voters +1/2 indy (22%) = 54%.
That didn’t happen. It is indisputable. For whatever reasons her campaign appeal to independent voters and r voters didn’t produce the expected results based on the voter registration data and a minimal standard of splitting the independent voters 50/50.
The RNC and every candidate needs to examine why some candidates seemed to perform below expectations. Some of it is the candidate, some of it is the messaging and topics the campaign prioritized, some of it may be voter apathy, some is choices in outside funding and an advertising deficit.
The responsible course is to set emotions aside and conduct a fact based examination of what choices led to under performance. Identify what went wrong and learn from those errors so we don’t repeat them in the future; eliminate the problem. In the case of incumbents then apply the lessons to mitigate the perceived flaws of the candidate where the candidate we an issue.
It’s not one particular thing that led to underperformance. It’s a collection of choices that got us here. It would seem to be wise to seek to ID the things we can do better and then apply the lessons to the set of elections. Neither finger pointing to exclusively blame others nor a refusal to accept criticism will help us improve electoral prospects.
Registrations don’t always reflect how people actually vote.
Is this a place where people rgister as a D in order to mess with the R primaries?
That is true. The registration does provide a baseline of how would project them to vote. As this is a redrawn CD, CO went from 7 to 8 CD in reapportionment, we don’t have easily available voting history for comparison as we will in 2026 for the next midterms.
It’s a useful baseline not an absolute. In 2020 Boebert garnered a bit over 52% but that was a Presidential cycle and a slightly different district. So no direct comparison can be made between those two elections. Without spending way more time than I am willing to invest doing a deep dive into county and precinct level data I am stuck with voter registration as a proxy for expectations.
IMO the failure of the Republicans to compete with mail-in balloting, despite having over 2 year’s notice, may be a reason why Republicans under-performed in many places. The key would be the relative percentage turnout versus Midterms years ago. Relative Republican turnout should have been higher than normal; when I have read that young people saved the day for the Dems.
Agreed. The rules have changed in the States that allow no excuse absentee ballots, 3rd party ballot collection or both.
We don’t have to like the new rules, most of us don’t, but we do need to start building campaign strategies to accommodate those changes. It’s as if the forward pass in football was a new thing. The other team is running an offense with 4 or 5 WR and our team is stubbornly clinging to the original T formation.
We are essentially at the same spot as when the House went down with Obama as President.
They can essentially stymie the President’s agenda, but nowhere near enough votes to override a Veto. That’s not even considering the Senate.
Sadly Trump will run, and his “Brand” is so poisoned by lies/propaganda he can never win in 2024.
Hopefully Biden is stupid enough to indicate him and knock him out of serious contention.
That way the pro-Trump folks will be pissed off and turn out to vote in big numbers.
DJT has an opportunity to convince two key groups to pull the lever for him in ’24.
1. Reluctant r
2. Reluctant Indy
If he secures the nomination he will get 95%+ of the reluctant r. They will at a minimum vote against the d/prog. The group he must appeal to in order to win the general election are these reluctant independent voters.
If, and this is a big if, he can remain disciplined and focused on the current issues that these voters care about he can absolutely win. However, if he detours into an ego driven campaign message where it becomes or is perceived by Indy voters as an ‘I wuz robbed in 2020’ then those voters stay home or worse vote for d/prog.
The issue is the media will amplify any instance where he talks about 2020 into that ego driven campaign. DJT is smart enough to recognize this. It remains to be seen if he is disciplined enough to avoid the trap he knows is waiting for him. I hope he can avoid it. We will be in a world of hurt if we don’t win in ’24.
I will be voting Trump if he is the nominee.
The number of independents who will be is about none.
Everyone without exception has their mind made up about Donald Trump. There just isn’t any room to grow.
To put it in perspective what could Hillary say that would make you vote for her in 2024?
That is the point Trump is in if he could muster the discipline to stop the 2020 election talk, which as you admit is a very big if.
Danny,
Whatever else DJT is he is an effective salesman and a good retail level politician. He is a really smart guy. He’s obviously much more experienced in the political realm than 2015 and already has Presidential experience.
The problem for him is he will be required to demonstrate he has become more disciplined and that he can appeal to indys.
Personally I believe he can but I am far from convinced he is willing to so. If he can move beyond preaching to the choir of already committed DJT stalwarts he has a very good shot. If instead he focuses his ’24 campaign trying to appeal to the folks whose votes he already has on lock then he will lose.
Simpler than that. The CA Republicans had a robust ballot harvesting program established, while the CO Republicans did not.
That’s why the CA Rs are winning in overtime, while the rest of the party isn’t, and the Ds can win on basement campaigns.
Until you adopt a ballot focused strategy, you’ll just keep losing.
Agreed. The analogy of one team taking advantage of the forward pass in Football while the other insists upon clinging to the original T formation seems pretty accurate to me.
In jurisdictions where ballot collection and mailed ballots are the rule we can’t rely upon an old fashioned get out the vote on election day to win. By refusing to accept the reality of the rule changes and incorporate them into our election strategy we put our candidates at a severe disadvantage.
?Vote harvesting?
Election and polling access, as is so shenanigans-entangled in Co the AG has declined to certify some elections?
The Feckless-R’s incompetence as a political party, which I treat as a 5% to 10% discount on votes vs. sentiment across the board?
The county and State level party leadership is a reflection of the folks registered as r in those counties and States. Unfortunately, many of us don’t pay enough attention or are unwilling to become involved in our local r party organizations. None of us are blameless.
Similar to School Boards too many of us took our eye off the ball. Then when we look up to discover something amiss we wonder how the heck it got this bad. Who elected these people? Unfortunately we did and if we don’t like our local r party leaders or Statewide r party philosophy it’s up to the members of the r party to do the very difficult work to reform those organizations.
Exactly so. “We have met the enemy and He is Us.”
The Permanent Progressive Cabal are relentless, and ubiquitous — in the end they do nothing but politics Uber Alles. One might speculate that’s because they have nothing better in their lives, but that doesn’t solve the problem.
They are out there. They can’t be bargained with. They can’t be reasoned with. They don’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And they absolutely will not stop, ever, until your whole life is orchestrated to their design.
So you are satisfied with failing in the senate; you are satisfied with losing governors mansion and state ag and state sos races all over the country?
You are satisfied with years of more Biden nominees who will have a lifetime appointment?
By the way write up a path to the white house that doesn’t include PA or MI or WI, or GA, or AZ.
Great. Now republicans better start harvesting ballots in Georgia, consistent with law. ( I know consistent with the law doesn’t matter to democrats but what can you do?)
I know consistent with the law doesn’t matter to democrats but what can you do?
Beat them at their own game? But of course republicans would never do that. They don’t have the balls to take it to the same level that democrats do and have done.
Now where are all the commenter who just last week were claiming that Republicans never win the close races?
And in Commifornia to boot!! 🤔
This wasn’t a close race and was conducted in a district where democrats had ballot harvested their way to victory. Perhaps CA republicans are learning the game. GA republicans better learn fast.
California Republicans learned to also ballot harvest for their side in the 2020 election. The CA Republican Party hasn’t been taken by surprise by this since 2018.
Fraud gives close races to democrats and makes solid races close. And yes Milhouse, I realize that you are going to claim that there is no significant fraud.
What an objective fact seeker will rightly tell you is the truth.
There is not enough evidence of voter fraud or election misconduct to invalidate or otherwise undermine an election. Of course, this is NOT the same as saying it didn’t happen.
By the same token, a fair and open conversation will recognize that both prior statements are true. In the independent world, you have to have proof. Don’t take the bait and start proclaiming rigged elections without proof. That just makes you look like a village idiot that earns the respect of no one.
We need to continue to fight for integrity and transparency without false claims of “rigged”.
“Don’t take the bait and start proclaiming rigged elections without proof. That just makes you look like a village idiot that earns the respect of no one.”
Until the proof inevitably hits the sidewalk—then you look like a prophet and a pundit.
So far, I’ve avoided Sudden Adult Death Syndrome, crypto bankruptcy, and J6 entrapment, and I’m still on a roll.
I 100% agree.
Liar. Anyone who’s a frequent flyer here knows that I have repeatedly and consistently claimed the opposite.
What I will and do claim is that there is no evidence of significant fraud. That’s because election fraud is inherently difficult to detect, and Democrats have fought hard for laws that make it even more difficult. When you the water is full of five-inch fish but you’re using a six-inch net, you won’t catch any. And when the law bans any net smaller than six inches, you know that those who fought for that law don’t want you catching any.
52.8 to 47.2?
Only close in California where the margin of cheating is large.
In short, this year the Democrats defined what the Republican positions were (i.e. terrible horrible people), and the Republicans failed to refute the accusations.
Dems claimed all Republicans want to take away your right to choose (i.e. abortion), force you to pay for student loans, destroy the environment because they don’t support trillions in taxpayer dollars going to global warming scams, and last but not least, every one of them is a frothing insurrectionist who kills police officers and want to overthrow the government to enforce their tyranny on the rest of the world. Oh, and they hate gay and trans people, and want them all to die horribly.
So how truly horrible must Democrats have been to still lose the House to them abortion haters? 🤔😂😂
That and many r candidates essentially ran on ‘I ain’t as bad as the other guy’. Overall the r chose to provide reasons to vote against their opponents v vote for them. I blame the leadership for refusing to create and effectively promote a plan of action.
McCarthy created a plan but didn’t really promote it in contrast with Gingrich and his Contract w America in ’94. Sen Scott created a plan but McConnell took a dump on it. We had the most favorable environment for a wave election and refused to make a serious attempt to nationalize the midterm elections. That may have provided the boost to turn out more voters that the underperforming candidates needed to win.
Yes, blame it on McCarthy, who was endorsed by Trump to be Speaker of the House.
Not just McCarthy. All the r leadership both in and out of office clearly didn’t deliver in a number of races. Some of the failures were due to messaging, some due to lack of ad buys, some due to lack of street level organization and in some places the candidate was not the best fit.
There’s plenty of blame to go around but some portion does indeed fall on McCarthy.
I don’t care what Trump thinks of him. I think he’s a turd sandwich. I thought Barr was one, too, but Trump hired him anyway. I don’t mind having better instincts than Trump.
You might consider that more of the election losses were due to a man NOT endorsed by Pres. Trump: McConnell.
That is just a lie and you are well aware it is a lie.
So McConnell insisted on running on “MUH 2020 STOLEN!” McConnell made Republicans pick Doug Mastriano? McConnell made Republicans pick Blake Masters? McConnell made Republicans pick Bolduc? I could go on but McConnell wasn’t the problem.
McConnell was the one going around primarying Republican incumbents who could win their districts but didn’t sign on to stop the steal and so delivered places like Grand Rapids to the Democrats for the general election resulting in one of the weakest house majorities ever?
By the way the Republican field in 2022 was the best funded they have ever been.
“That and many r candidates essentially ran on ‘I ain’t as bad as the other guy’.”
I had to LOL. I still have Kelly ads on my Tivo that essentially end with, “I’m not with Brandon, I don’t even know that guy!”
Yep. The failure by r leaders to create a well hyped, publicized plan of what they will do if given the Senate and HoR majority allowed the d/prog room to create distance between themselves and Biden.
Kelly’s voting record was nearly 100% lockstep with Biden policies. A nationalized election would have forced d/prog to respond to questions about the r policy priorities and either agree or disagree. Instead they were able to triangulate by presenting themselves as ‘not Biden’ and ‘not a radical r’ but instead as sober, moderate; even where, like Kelly, they were full of it.
Now then: on January 3, all 220 (or perhaps 221?) Pubs must vote in lock-step for Speaker and the leadership. They can extract whatever they can beforehand (and good on the Freedom House caucus for whatever they can get), but on the 3rd, do your job. Don’t play games and require the new Speaker to depend on the Dems for a few votes, and don’t open the door to Madame Pelosi.
As Barack Obama once said: you don’t have to fall in love, you just have to fall in line. Keep your disputes with the leadership internal, move the caucus internally, work like hell in 2024, and in the meantime fall in line. Don’t open the door to the Dems.
With such a slim margin, I hope the Republicans in Congress are very cautious about risky adventures like softball practice. You never know what the Democrats will do to seize power.
I know I’d insist on setting the location for any cross the aisle team building.
“Who are they? Oh, just Capitol police — we’ve got some leadership here.”
“Why the vests and AR’s? You know what happened last time.”
I swear to bog, Scalise should be carried to every Congressional event on a litter, inside a 4-man security squad. I grant his personal courage; it ain’t for that. It’s to make the political point — the people who have to be concerned about armed whack-jobs ain’t the D’s.”