Ukraine: Putin Apologizes to Israel for Lavrov’s Hitler Comment, U.S. Intelligence Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals
Ukrainian officials lost contact with the defenders at the Mariupol steelworks plant.
Will Russia have Mariupol by May 9, which is Victory Day in Russia?
We’ve learned that 300 people have left Mariupol, but officials lost contact with those defending the steelworks plant.
Putin Apologizes?!
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s office said Putin apologized for Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s Hitler comment.
But the Kremlin did not mention an apology:
The comments by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claiming that Adolf Hitler had “Jewish blood,” and the following back-and-forth between Israel and Russia, marked the worst flare-up between the countries since Russia invaded Ukraine.
“The prime minister accepted the apology of President Putin for comments by Lavrov and thanked him for clarifying the president’s view of the Jewish people and the memory of the Holocaust,” Bennett’s office said.
The Kremlin said Putin spoke with Bennett about “historic memory,” the Holocaust and the situation in Ukraine, without mentioning an apology.
Bennett also requested Putin “examine humanitarian options” for evacuating the Ukrainian city of Mariupol. “The request came following Bennett’s conversation with the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, yesterday,” Bennett’s office said.
Putin said Russian forces will allow the evacuation of civilians, the prime minister’s office said.
U.S. Intelligence Helping Ukrainians Take Out Russian Generals
Officials told The New York Times that our intelligence is helping Ukrainians target Russian generals:
Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.
The targeting help is part of a classified effort by the Biden administration to provide real-time battlefield intelligence to Ukraine. That intelligence also includes anticipated Russian troop movements gleaned from recent American assessments of Moscow’s secret battle plan for the fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, the officials said. Officials declined to specify how many generals had been killed as a result of U.S. assistance.
The United States has focused on providing the location and other details about the Russian military’s mobile headquarters, which relocate frequently. Ukrainian officials have combined that geographic information with their own intelligence — including intercepted communications that alert the Ukrainian military to the presence of senior Russian officers — to conduct artillery strikes and other attacks that have killed Russian officers.
The intelligence sharing is part of a stepped-up flow in U.S. assistance that includes heavier weapons and tens of billions in aid, demonstrating how quickly the early American restraints on support for Ukraine have shifted as the war enters a new stage that could play out over months.
Russia Storms Plant, Ukraine Loses Contact
Unfortunately, it appears that Russia is getting closer to overtaking Mariupol. The defenders are trapped in the Azovstal steel plant and Ukraine lost contact with them.
Drone footage shows Russia storming the plant:
Ukraine has lost contact with soldiers defending Mariupol’s stronghold of Azovstal as Kyiv said Russian troops were storming the last pocket of resistance in south-eastern Ukraine.
“Unfortunately, we have lost touch with the guys and we can’t know if they are safe or not,” Vadym Boichenko, Mariupol’s mayor, said on Ukrainian TV on Wednesday.
Ukrainian MP David Arakhamia said Russian troops had entered the territory of the steelworks, which has withstood days of heavy shelling and artillery strikes.
In drone footage filmed by Moscow-backed eastern Ukrainian separatists, the factory was seen being pounded by what appear to be thermobaric bombs.
Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said Ukrainian soldiers were “safely blocked” inside the plant.
His ministry released video footage showing howitzers firing in the distance at what they said were targets at Azovstal.
300 People Leave Mariupol
The United Nations says more than 300 civilians from the besieged southeastern city of Mariupol and four other towns have been evacuated to Ukrainian-held Zaporizhzhia in a second successful operation to get civilians out of areas subject to Russian shelling and attacks.
Osnat Lubrani, the U.N. humanitarian chief in Ukraine, said in a statement that many of the civilians from Mariupol, Manhush, Berdiansk, Tokmak and Vasylivka came Wednesday with nothing but the clothes they were wearing and are now getting humanitarian assistance. She said they’ll also receive “much- needed psychological support.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the 344 evacuated Wednesday are in addition to the more than 150 people who were evacuated earlier this week from the bunkers under the Azovstal steel mill in Mariupol, which is surrounded by Russian troops and reportedly came under renewed fire on Wednesday.
No civilians were reported evacuated from the plant on Wednesday. Zelenskyy said they are trying to reach an agreement to save those remaining at Azovstal, including women and children.
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Comments
“Officials told The New York Times that our intelligence is helping Ukrainians target Russian generals:”
And people feel compelled to tell the news media this? Dumb.
It’s like the feel compelled to start a war with Russia because they think it will help Biden.
Or they are small children playing at war, so proud of what they do that they need to see affirmation of it in the press, because that’s more important than recognizing the value of strategically keeping your mouth shut during global conflict.
It’s probably both. We are run by idiots.
Bingo! I was a Naval Intel officer for 20 years. That fact is not classified; one look at my DD214 (again, an unclassified document which is why I have it in my personal possession and need to use to get retirement and veteran’s benefits) will tell you exactly who I was.
Of course everybody is now familiar with the celebrated “Intelligence Community.” It’s about as much a community as the LGBTQ++ “community.” I love watching from the outside as they tear themselves apart. The “trans” people have come up with an acronym for lesbians who won’t sleep with them: TERF. Trans-exclusionary Radical Feminists. Apparently the trans people are so desperate for other people’s affirmation that they accuse you of being a transphobe if you don’t let the trans people choose your sex partners. “Some women have penises! Suck mine lesbian.”
I find it highly amusing that lesbians are now solidly my allies in the, “No, women don’t have penises and men don’t menstruate” camp.
I had thought of the analogy before, but the CIA keeps reinforcing it.
https://nypost.com/2021/05/03/cia-recruitment-video-slammed-as-woke-propaganda/
Apparently the CIA has somehow discovered they need non-gender conforming purple-haired agents with nose-rings. That’s some tradecraft you’ve got going on, spooks.
Seriously, they are as in need of affirmation as your average trans who will commit suicide if you don’t affirm them. They just can’t shut up. They would shut up if Ukraine was losing this war. But because it appears they’re winning (and longer term I’m not convinced they can) they have to tell the world what how important a role they’re playing.
But I guarantee you if the tables turn and the Russians get their doo doo together in one nice tidy pile they’ll gaslight the world and claim they had nothing to do with. Actually, the latter is no doubt the case. I’m sure that the Ukrainians are perfectly capable of targeting Russian leadership and units when they’re forced to talk in the clear because their comms equipment is crap. I know this because the “IC” has taken credit for things that haven’t happened.
The Ukrainians have claimed to have shot down at least on IL-76 transport full of assault troops near Kyiv toward the start of the Russian invasion. The IL-76 is a huge plane, about the size of the now retired C-141.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10757037/US-provided-Ukraine-real-time-info-allowed-shoot-Russian-troop-transporter.html
“US provided Ukrainian military with real-time info that allowed it to shoot down Russian troop transporter carrying hundreds of soldiers in early days of war”
I haven’t seen any pics of the crash site, have you? The Ukrainians control that territory, cell phones are everywhere. You couldn’t hide it if you wanted to. Here’s a couple of Ukrainian soldiera near the crash site of a smaller plane.
https://yalibnan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Ukrainian-plane-shot-down.jpg
Before they found out it didn’t happen, anonymous sources from the “IC” were out there claiming they had fed the Ukrainians the real-time targeting intel to make it happen.
It. Never. Happened.
I never liked to share intel with CIS or DoS’s intel branch, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR). I felt like I might as well just call Beijing and the Kremlin directly and save time.
They can’t bleeping keep a secret. I recall a colleague in an actual professional HUMINT service comparing the CIA and their level of skill to our adversaries as a 13 y.o. in a room filled with PhDs.
Apparently the CIA has somehow discovered they need non-gender conforming purple-haired agents with nose-rings
To infiltrate Woke Europe, I suppose (/sarc).
Well said on the whole Arminius.
“Seriously, they are as in need of affirmation as your average trans who will commit suicide if you don’t affirm them. They just can’t shut up. They would shut up if Ukraine was losing this war. But because it appears they’re winning (and longer term I’m not convinced they can) they have to tell the world what how important a role they’re playing.”
Yeah, and that’s a problem. Even a fat civilian like myself knows that a lot of the most important parts of intel work consist of being able to listen and stay quiet (especially to the wider world). Even as a rubbernecker mostly working from open source knowledge I’ve not been particularly impressed by the CIA’s track record and it has struck me that a lot of their mystique owes to REDFOR pumping them up as scapegoats for anything that goes wrong, but they were still one of the world’s premier intel agencies. Now it looks like they are becoming a bad joke, or more of one. Which is part of the problem: a lot of politics, spycraft, and war is about image as well as actuality. How one stands in the “Forest of Mirrors” depends a lot on what’s reflected out to others. Which is why it’s kind of important to not do anything to jeopardize a positive reflection that might not be real.
We’re seeing the problems that happen now that the “glorious Russian Fed Conventional Forces” are trying to claw their way towards victory and get some of their respect back. And as you say, they might achieve that. But it’s going to be hard to imagine that they’ll be able to cut as dazzling or impressive a figure as they once did for years to come.
We’re probably seeing something with the vaunted “Intelligence Community”, both with the Russians (and their glorious thwarting of a Neo-Nazi Ukrainian Plot led by “Signature Illegible”) and our own Deep State Swamp.
“But I guarantee you if the tables turn and the Russians get their doo doo together in one nice tidy pile they’ll gaslight the world and claim they had nothing to do with. Actually, the latter is no doubt the case”
I’m not so sure, though I’ll defer to your judgement and experience.
My first guess would be they’d downplay their involvement (to avoid prestige loss from being “Beaten”- even indirectly- by the Russians) but still claim they helped Zelenskyy and the plucky Ukrainians resist the Russian Steamroller so that this wouldn’t be like Munich, but the Russian forces were JUST SO POWERFUL…. which is why we need to give the IC more power and more money to fight the great Russian Threat, and possibly hunt down those that would collaborate with the Putler Regime (TM).
Sort of the song and dance we saw with procurement throughout the Cold War. While of course the Dems will raise the hue and cry to try and demonize we in the American and Western right and persecute us.
But that’s just my unqualified opinion/gut feeling/something, and I’ve certainly been wrong before. You have experience and knowledge so I’d defer to you.
“. I’m sure that the Ukrainians are perfectly capable of targeting Russian leadership and units when they’re forced to talk in the clear because their comms equipment is crap.”
Yah, like I’m still astounded the Russians are dealing with this problem, on this level. I’d like to think that my internet browsing is more secure than their transmissions (and my internet is DECIDEDLY not secure). But even if it is, I’m just a private civilian and internet troll; I’m not in the chain of command on the battlefield where peoples’ lives will directly hinge on whether I can keep Langley/SIS/Yegor with a ham radio listening in on what I say.
” I know this because the “IC” has taken credit for things that haven’t happened.”
Not surprised there. Would be fairly typical.
“The Ukrainians have claimed to have shot down at least on IL-76 transport full of assault troops near Kyiv toward the start of the Russian invasion. The IL-76 is a huge plane, about the size of the now retired C-141.
I haven’t seen any pics of the crash site, have you? The Ukrainians control that territory, cell phones are everywhere. You couldn’t hide it if you wanted to.”
Like, to play Devil’s Advocate you probably could try and hide it in some cases (like if it went down over the Black Sea) or sealed off the area and started blasting….. But that’s not what fits this (alleged) situation. And why would the Ukrainians do that when- as you point out- it’d be a feather in their cap?
And I remember seeing images of a couple of IL-76s shot down earlier (like the Ukrainian one downed back in 2014) we can have a good idea of what they look like.
I’m not surprised the Ukrainians and “IC” are over-claiming, it’s almost universal in war over the centuries (and the Russians are of course doing it too), but you’d hope a major reason for the overclaiming was confusion or honest mistakes. For something this big it’s hard to conclude it is something other than an outright lie.
“Before they found out it didn’t happen, anonymous sources from the “IC” were out there claiming they had fed the Ukrainians the real-time targeting intel to make it happen.”
Honestly I’m not sure if it actually happening or being fake would be better or worse that they’re blathering about it. I’m one of the relatively hardline anti-Putinites but even I don’t want the US to get US personnel entangled in a Ukrainian shooting match while the left is trying to create 1984 in 2022 over here. It also doesn’t really serve much of a purpose beyond fanning Putin’s propaganda for short term feather claiming (and not really clever feather claiming as you point out because it is so large it’ll be fairly easy to refute).
It is ludicrously depressing. What makes it worse is the fact that it seems to be becoming more widely known. The Pax Americana and world as a whole is shaky enough without our “best and brightest” making fools of themselves in public.
“Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.”
Translation: “This is an outright lie.”
“Translation: “This is an outright lie.””
No, it isn’t. Especially since- if you’ve been paying attention- at least a third of the General-level deaths and casualties have been confirmed by the Russian government.
Major General Andriy Sukhovetsky: https://web.archive.org/web/20220310145105/https://coffeeordie.com/russian-general-killed/
Major General Vladimir Frolov: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-frolov-russian-general-killed-war-b2059665.html
Major General Oleg Mityaev
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10714981/Russia-recovers-body-dead-general-MONTH-killed-Mariupol-steel-factory.html
Unknown, Unnamed Russian General (according to NATO; Suspected to be Major General Andriy Kolesnikov)
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60685883
It’s worth noting that the Russians have only formally disputed two of the twelve Ukrainian General level kill claims, with most being unconfirmed. That’s pretty noteworthy in and of itself, since you’d think they could parade them onto camera to try and keep morale up and dispel these kinds of clams before sending them back in (away from cameras).
Outright lies are like claiming there was a Ukrainian Super Ace who shot down 40 Russian fighters, five in a day, and was called the “Ghost of Kyiv” and that the Moskva was sunk in an imaginary storm during calm waters.
Whatever this is, it isn’t an “outright lie.” The Ukrainians have generally been somewhat modest at making claims to have killed Russian General officers, and again we have a lot of confirmed deaths and relatively few outright disputed. The Ukrainians have fudged numbers in a lot of ways, but they probably legitimately think they’ve gotten this many or about as many General Officers.
Besides, a lot of military analysts have been astonished by a lot of thing in this war, mostly relating to the rather poor state of the Russian military.
America can’t win a major war against Russia or China because we don’t know how to keep our damn mouths shut.
Not to mention bragging about helping kill generals in a war that we are supposedly not involved in just gets us closer to being in that war.
I wonder if Russia still has assets in America and Europe ready to hit our military/political leaders like it was assumed they had during the Cold War.
If Russia still has assets in the US? Count on it.
How about they take out Biden and Harris and we take out Putin in retaliation.
That would solve a lot of problems.
No matter how much Putin hates America he couldn’t do anthing to hurt us anymore than Joe Biden alredy has—short of nuclear war.
The United States had intelligence that Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, commander of the combined Fleet of the Imperial Japanese Navy, was visiting forward units. They examined the Japanese high command before the Admiral was terminated. Sometimes an incompetent holds a place, while a subordinate is really superior in abilities. They decided Yamamoto was the real deal, and superior indeed. The Russians have evaluated our chain of command. President Biden, Harris, Austin, Millie, Blinken, and many others are safe from Russian attack. We, on the other hand, are not safe, as those Bozos are still on the loose.
If Dementia Joe visits Kiev, Russia might just nuke it to give us President Harris.
Perhaps a 1/4 of Democratic Party officials? Plenty on Team China too.
Namely: the entire democrat party, and a good many rinos.
They certainly still have assets in the West and it’d be amazing if they haven’t at least considered these kinds of moves, though the purge in the Russian intelligence octopus is probably going to cause some shockwaves that’ll make it harder.
But that’s counterbalanced by our own corrupt and tyrannical idiots as well as their focus on hunting us.
MSNBC reporting that Russia has entered the Mariupol plant for the second day in a row, that the plant has not been taken, and that Russian forces are being withdrawn from Mariupol for use in Donbas (sp).
When this happened in Iraq, it was because the US Maines knew the battle was won.
“When this happened in Iraq, it was because the US Maines knew the battle was won.”
If there’s one thing this war should have showed, it is that the Russian Federation’s military IS NOT the US one or that of any NATO power. The loss of the Moskva (as well as the coverups about it) should indicate that.
So while it seems like the battle for Mariupol as a whole has ended, Azovstal hasn’t been taken and the Russians aren’t eager to try and storm it, so they’ve (reasonably enough) decided to try and siege it while waiting to see if it’ll surrender or some kind of political settlement will happen (like say the plant being surrendered on Victory Day in exchange for the defenders and civilians being able to pass through to Ukrainian Loyalist line.)
There are probably SOF personnel from 10 different countries on the ground in Ukraine. I am hearing reports of Delta and SAS in particular, along with French and several Nordic groups. But, there is no way the SEALS and Green Berets aren’t there too.
Delta is unlikely ( not in the mission profile) and yes there are certainly ODA’s and a NWS team or 2 ( along with other nations too most likely) in country but nothing of any tactically significance.
That’s just SOP.
Its not like they are engaging and winning anything in a combat role. At most surveillance and probably advising/training.
“thermobaric bombs” Bad in this context, but would be good in Gaza and the West Bank.
Russia can target our leaders behind the war in Ukraine now.
I’m glad Ukraine is not part of NATO. Otherwise we would have to help them out by sending gazillions of dollars of aid and equipment.
Nah, if Ukraine was part of NATO we’d have to worry about them making us enter conventionally and officially with Article 5.
Given the Biden Junta this might be how things wind up anyway but at least there’s more buffer there.
When does “proxy” cross into full throated participation?
So, if I tell you your opponent just entered the room, that’s an assist. If I hold his arms while you pound his face, that is a wee bit more than “proxy”.
At some time the Russians are going to grow weary of the proxy assistance, and I really believe we aren’t going to like it. Unfortunately, the people causing the problems mostly will avoid, for a while, the consequences.
“When does ‘proxy’ cross into full throated participation?”
Well, you start by sending a truth request to the Disinformation Czar and she will tell you what the word means on any particular Tuesday.
You can also ask which way the wind is blowing.
The fake news just gets more absurd with every claim. Time for some critical thinking and applied reasoning.
If true, here are a few questions to be answered.
Exactly how are these Generals being tracked to be targeted? ( that’s a technology and labor intensive act)
Where do the Ukrainians get these Delta level “hit squads” in the middle of a war they are losing by the day
If the Russians are losing all these high ranking officials, how are they still winning?
If the Ukrainians are capable of all this, why are they still losing?
“The fake news just gets more absurd with every claim.”
Sure, but this isn’t it.
“Time for some critical thinking and applied reasoning.”
By all means, let us think and reason together. I just don’t think you’ll like the conclusions.
“If true, here are a few questions to be answered.
Exactly how are these Generals being tracked to be targeted? ( that’s a technology and labor intensive act)”
First and foremost, you have to realize that for various reasons (including the collapse of Russian command and control) Russian General Officers have generally been pushed closer and closer to the front in order to straighten out their units and get them to keep advancing. The problem is, being close to the front means you’re close to danger, so a bunch of these guys are probably being hit by attacks meant for their units without any SPECIAL sauce attempts to get them (or alternatively, somewhat special attention directed to them during more routine bombardments).
But beyond that, you have to realize that if there’s one thing this war has revealed, it is the rather ramshackle nature of much of the war machine. And high on that list is the truly, truly AWFUL in-theater Operational Security. We saw inklings of this back in Georgia in 2008, but most people (myself included) underestimated the breadth and depth of the problems.
Chief among them the fact that the Russians are reliant on using their enemy’s own digital and communications infrastructure for coded transmissions and have- by and large- been broadcasting “in the clear” when and where those are knocked out, which means that your average radio enthusiast (of which THERE ARE A LOT in Eastern Europe) can listen in on a lot of their traffic.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30494129
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/22/ukraine-russia-military-radio/
This is basically an intelligence analysis dream-slash-nightmare due to the volume of info you can mine as well as some lingering questions on if any given claim is true or might be planted. It’s also the sort of thing that- a bit over a century ago- led to the destruction of one Russian army and the crippling of another in East Prussia.
So that’s the most basic issue, and not something they need The Activity or other Western spooks to do.
Though they do have Western spooks. Which brings us to the other measures, such as attempts by the West to intercept their more clandestine communications (whether that’s decrypting it and sending the digests to the Ukrainians, or just measuring the communication levels or methods to see if they point to “Hey, this probably indicates some Brass Hat’s chatter”) or tracking their movements using spies inside the Russian government.
“Where do the Ukrainians get these Delta level “hit squads” in the middle of a war they are losing by the day”
This is the kind of “when did you stop hitting your wife?” tier “question”, and just like that it’s dubious.
Firstly: The Ukrainians probably do have a few “Delta level hit squads”, (like their Air Assault units), they just don’t have many of them.
Secondly: the overwhelming majority of these General level casualties or kills aren’t from “Delta level hit squads” and pretending they are is misleading. They’re more typically- again- from the Russian brass getting too close to the front and falling victim to more or less mundane ambushes (like the late Major General Mityaev https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10714981/Russia-recovers-body-dead-general-MONTH-killed-Mariupol-steel-factory.html ) or some from of bombardment by artillery, drones, or so on. Which isn’t surprising since artillery has been the king of the battlefield for about
400 years.
Third: this assumes the Ukrainians are losing, which is pretty disputable. Especially given things like the counter-attacks at Kharkhiv and Kyiv.
“If the Russians are losing all these high ranking officials, how are they still winning?”
Again, how do you know they are?
Because right now they seem to be trading ground slowly in the Donbas in exchange for getting their teeth kicked in to the North.
“If the Ukrainians are capable of all this, why are they still losing?”
See above.
You post a lot of propaganda but nothing independently verified by any reliable source.
Just out of curiosity, what is your actual experience in military analysis or are you just parroting like Diaper below?
“You post a lot of propaganda but nothing independently verified by any reliable source.”
Translation: You didn’t even bother to study the sources I provided, or want to dismiss them without actually explaining why.
All three of the named generals I gave were ones whose deaths have been confirmed from the Russian side, whether it was Frolov’s funeral or the recovery of Mityaev’s body. Now I dunno about you, but the chances that three deaths confirmed by both the Ukrainian and Russian governments as well as third parties are unlikely to be fabricated. If you don’t think those sources are “reliable sources”, what the fuck do you consider them?
Those claims, at the very least, are not “absurd” and show that yeah, the Ukrainians are indeed killing Russian generals to some degree. Indeed, three named dead amounts to A: More Generals dying than US ones lost in the entire “War on Terror”, and B: one fourth of the Ukrainians’ claimed tally. Add in the one unnamed amount to one third of the claimed.
That’s a significant amount of the claimed tally being verified in some way or another.
It also thoroughly invalidates the idea that Ukraine needs Delta-tier operators in order to kill any Russian Generals, given the utterly poor Tradecraft the Russians have shown and the top-heavy command structure with weak NCOs forcing their senior officers closer and closer to danger in order to get anything done. Of course Delta-level hit teams would HELP in this endeavor (and might be responsible for killing people like Mityaev), but we won’t know that for months if not years to come and ultimately they’re the least of your problems when you’re already trucking senior officers in and around enemy medium conventional artillery range at a conventional front..
“Just out of curiosity, what is your actual experience in military analysis or are you just parroting like Diaper below?”
Ah yes, the contemptuous “what are your credentials?” It’s kind of depressing to realize how much people on the right have internalized the “Believe all experts” nonsense.
As for my experience in military analysis? I have a Bachelor’s in History and decades of being a military-history autist trawling and trolling through primary and informed secondary source documents and writing them up. During that time I’ve predicted many things accurately (such as that the Russians would find far limited support among the Russophone and ethnic Russian populaces in Eastern Ukraine, that the Iranians would support the Jihadis fighting us in Iraq and Afghanistan, and then try to consolidate power, and that Vietnam would prove non-committal to the containment of China) and many things wrongly (such as that Putin would not escalate the invasion a few months back, and that a group called “ISIS” being hunted by both the Baathist Syrians and the FSA would be quickly destroyed- in my defense it was a very early reference to IS, but still a bad on my end).
So in essence, I have never served and never claim to serve, and also have little in the way of formal accreditation to conduct “military analysis.” Which I compensate for by being well aware and open about my shortfalls, and trying to remedy them by studying. That includes talking to a goodly number of acquaintances and friendly acquaintances, many of whose service records far exceed whatever yours is.
Remarkably enough, this has allowed me to out-perform the likes of credentialed charlatans such as “Colonel MacGregor,” Pierre Sprey, and even former General Wesley Clark trading off of their experiences by peddling either nonsense or semi-nonsense covered in the veil of their former service and “you wouldn’t gainsay what a FORMER US SERVICEMAN/Engineer says, would you?!?”
Answer: If they’re wrong, yeah, yeah I will. What’s worse happens if their claims are so obviously wrong that even myself the decidedly amateur analyst autist can dunk on them. Which I have managed to do to the likes of the Dreizen Report, Jacques Baud, the aforementioned MacGregor, and Mearsheimer.
Now, do you have any actual, substantive counter-arguments against my claims? Or are you just trying to pull the “Hahaha what are your credentials?!?!” card to try and salvage your poor argumentation about how Ukraine would need Delta-tier operators to kill Russian generals ?
Tracking Generals: A key characteristic of staff officers is that they receive updates from across the battlefields they command and send orders. In other words, a tremendous amount of communications. That’s easy to identify, track and triangulate, and can be done from literally hundreds of miles away – e.g. Poland. Plus of course the local population, as many of these Generals are occupying land that belongs to other people, who phone Kiev and say “Hey, guess who just commandeered the big house on the edge of my village.”
Hit squads: Many of the dead Generals have been killed by artillery fire on their command posts (see above). Some of them are straying too close to the front line, because too many officers below them have already been killed or aren’t making the progress politicians are demanding.
How are [Russia] still winning: Ah, this is the easy one. They’re not. They’ve already had to retreat from the whole Kiev Oblast, they’re being removed from the area around Kharkiv, their great encirclement that you promised would annihilate Ukrainian forces is costing them a full battlegroup a day to progress around 2 miles a day and the only people that actually think the Russians are winning are people outside Russia listening to Russian propaganda.
Why are [Ukraine] still losing: They’re not. They’ve suffered distressing losses, of civilians, of soldiers, of military equipment, of civil infrastructure, but they’re not losing the war. They’ve also now received a serious upgrade in their artillery capability, where they’ve ceded ground in the last two weeks it’s been a gradual withdrawal towards natural barriers that make for excellent defensive positions and it looks very viable for Ukraine to reclaim the whole of the Donbas.
Frankly the only real question left is whether Putin will survive and who ends up with Crimea.
Sorry Diaper but the Google powered musings from a chairborne stranger REMF with zero actual experience in the subject don’t carry much weight.
“Sorry Diaper but the Google powered musings from a chairborne stranger REMF with zero actual experience in the subject don’t carry much weight.”
Sure. But you know what else doesn’t carry much weight?
The musings of any MFer openly ignoring Russian military doctrine and history as well as common intelligence practices and OSINT in order to make claims that fly in the face of miliitary science.
Also re: contempt for REMFs: this is pretty jarring considering a lot of REMFs (which is still above the credentials or “actual experience” my civvie self can claim) would have at least as good a window into how this stuff can happen as the frontsoldiers. Especially since a lot of those REMFs would be actively involved in efforts like these.
I’m fairly certain that the “average” SIGINT or Electronic Warfare REMF would have at least as good an insight into how these hits might have gone down as whatever your experiences are, as does my old retired (due to undue health pressure and marriage strain) friend who at least convincingly claims to have been (Ch)Air Force Intelligence.
Gratitude for your service does not extend to being willing to let you use citations of it to dismiss evidence contrary to your poor logic and argumentation. It also does not extend to allowing you to unilaterally determine what is and isn’t a “reliable source”, especially when such sources involve formal acknowledgement of the dead General by not just the Ukrainians (who are the ones claiming and possibly overclaiming the deaths) but also by the Russian government.
I don’t need to be a Navy Seal and world-renowned expert in Gorilla Warfare to punch holes in your argumentation.
And on some level you seem to know that, considering your responses have not engaged with any of our claims on their merits, only dismissed them and asked if we are “Credentialled”, what “Experience” we have, or if we are “Expertz.” As if those were any substitute for solid argumentation or a half-decent grasp of the sources.
All those words to say you have a totally unqualified “opinion” with no basis to defend from.
OTOH, some of us here (retired) have 18 series, actual psyops experience (Mil and Civ) and 30+ years actually doing the craft in ways you don’t even know exist in the real world, against this enemy in particular, in theater and in combat. ( and peacetime)
So instead of pontificating points and making noise, you might proffer more by shutting up and listening to people who DO have both the cred and experience.
But, most likely not.
Carry on with your “all knowing” net learned “UNQUALIFIED OPINIONS” self, LMFAO
“All those words to say you have a totally unqualified “opinion” with no basis to defend from.”
So why am I doing better defending them than you are defending your own claims, Oh Sage?
Therein lies the problem. Citing prior experience (which by the way is unverifiable for most if not all the people here) and acting like an asshole doesn’t make your points more cogent or logical or make your opinion more qualified.
It just makes you an asshole.
And when your performance in debate is this bad, it makes you an unqualified, incompetent asshole.
It makes it look like you can’t defend your oh-so-considered, oh-so-qualified opinion and writings from criticism by a fat, autist civvie with some friends.
Well. Done. I’m sure your parents and unit must be proud of you.
“OTOH, some of us here (retired) have 18 series, actual psyops experience (Mil and Civ) and 30+ years actually doing the craft in ways you don’t even know exist in the real world, against this enemy in particular, in theater and in combat. ( and peacetime)”
Then why do your arguments look like the incoherent blather I’ve dealt with from the Russian equivalent of the 50 Cent Army, who insist loudly and profoundly that Russian OPSEC in this war has been great and much better than the West?
You don’t seem to realize that this isn’t a debate about your experience, it also isn’t one that you can win by simply citing how many years you’ve been doing X. And it PARTICULARLY won’t change the fact that we have three Russian Generals confirmed KIA by the Russian Government, and that while they might have been bumped off by Ukrainian SOF the fact that they were so close to the frontline exposed them to plenty of other risks.
I also note you never bothered to state what would be “reliable sources” according to you. Which would be kind of a basic thing if you’re going to critique other peoples’ analysis.
“So instead of pontificating points and making noise, you might proffer more by shutting up and listening to people who DO have both the cred and experience.”
Unfortunately for you, I can’t verify either your cred or experience on here (unlike with some of my friends, who I have been able to).
And in any case, your “cred and experience” wouldn’t do jackshit to change the fact that we’re looking at a third of the claimed Russian Generals being confirmed dead by the Russian Government. It wouldn’t change the fact that your argumentation has been truly terrible, illogical, and ahistorical.
And it won’t change the fact that for now, you’re getting your ass whupped by a fat autist who has never seen service because you think acting like a dumb meathead bully online and swaggering about your claimed service is a good logical fashion.
That’s a pathetic display, especially for someone who is supposed to know better.
“But, most likely not.”
Correct, I’m not going to. Because I don’t see a reason to.
And your bluster sure isn’t doing anything to make me see that I am outmatched or would be better off shutting up.
“Carry on with your “all knowing” net learned “UNQUALIFIED OPINIONS” self, LMFAO”
You first, chowderhead.
Unlike you, I’ve never denied that my analysis is manifestly unqualified and that I’m operating almost purely through OSINT, my own knowledge base, and casual chats with my friends and friendly acquaintances (many of whom can’t share anything like their full knowledge due to basic realities like gag orders).
That hasn’t stopped me from being able to argue circles around you. Because while I guess that isn’t something they focused on in your training in those 30+ years, you’d think someone claiming such a deep expertise in psyops would know a bit about making a half-cogent argument.
I guess not.
So how about you either stop being a little bitch, or shut up?
Man up and school me as badly as you obviously think you can. Show how the rags I cited are not merely Rags (I already knew that) but were NOT in fact representing Russian acknowledgement that Frolov, Mityaev, and Sukhovetsky are not alive and represent a rather alarmingly high mortality rate for Russian General Officers in their own right.
It’d be a damn shame if 30+ years of experience got shown up by a mouthy civilian who knows an iota about how to argue and how to research.
You have certainly posted the longest assembly of words to say absolutely nothing of any value I have ever seen.
LOL
You want to argue web postings you don’t even understand.
Oh poor baby
I know, but you keep posting them.
“You have certainly posted the longest assembly of words to say absolutely nothing of any value I have ever seen.”
A supposed 30+ year veteran of psyops and other military service who did not find shit like the NSC’s “Rightwing Extremism” in 2009 to have “absolutely nothing of value?”
This is how I know you’re not what you say you are. Because the overwhelming majority military personnel serving at the time it was written who had even a tertiary intelligence capacity read it, and even most of those who had retired long before it was published read. And the only people who found “absolutely anything of value in it” were:
* Stolen Valor Suckers.
* Jihadist Jackasses.
and worst of all
* The people who wrote it.
With some allowances to be made for overlaps between those three.
I leave it to you to identify which category or categories best describes you.
In any case, it is already clear you have no
“LOL
You want to argue web postings you don’t even understand.”
Since you obviously want to- because apparently in spite of 30 years in psyops you don’t understand jackshit about argument formulation or Russian officer culture- I saw no reason why not to.
“Oh poor baby”
I’m not the punk who tried to flex only to wind up being unable to refute an internet autist, so stop pretending your pity is directed anywhere other than what it is: inwards.
“You have certainly posted the longest assembly of words to say absolutely nothing of any value I have ever seen.”
A supposed 30+ year veteran of psyops and other military service who did not find shit like the NSC’s “Rightwing Extremism” in 2009 to have “absolutely nothing of value?”
This is how I know you’re not what you say you are. Because the overwhelming majority of military personnel serving at the time it was written who had even a tertiary intelligence capacity read it, and even most of those who had retired long before it was published read. And the only people who found “absolutely anything of value in it” were:
* Stolen Valor Suckers.
* Jihadist Jackasses.
and worst of all
* The people who wrote it.
With some allowances to be made for overlaps between those three.
I leave it to you to identify which category or categories best describes you.
In any case, it is already clear you have nothing to actually contribute to this discussion. Which is ironic considering how you said:
““So instead of pontificating points and making noise, you might proffer more by shutting up and listening to people who DO have both the cred and experience.”
Well, I’ve listened.
And the person who claims to be a military veteran with 30+ years of experience has said jackshit of any value.
All you’ve done is make a bunch of truly ill-considered and ahistorical points that shows you don’t understand Russian military culture, accused others who tried to offer clarification of believing “propaganda’, and thumped hard about how your idiocy and boorishness should be taken seriously because you have “cred,”
(While ignoring the fact that there is fundamentally nothing TO take seriously even if we wanted to, beyond knowing that you have a very, very high opinion of yourself without demonstrating any reason why other people should.)
“LOL
You want to argue web postings you don’t even understand.”
Since you obviously want to- because apparently in spite of 30 years in psyops you don’t understand jackshit about argument formulation or Russian officer culture- I saw no reason why not to.
“Oh poor baby”
I’m not the punk who tried to flex only to wind up being unable to refute an internet autist, so stop pretending your pity is directed anywhere other than where it is: inwards.
I think the real question is when do the Russians acknowledge that they are losing a conventional war and bring out the nuclear artillery? The next questions are how many will they have to use to crush the Ukrainian army, and how Pyrrhic will their victory be?
The Russians don’t want to acknowledge they’re losing a conventional war, and while I wouldn’t put it past Putin to try nuclear escalation (he’s certainly blathered a lot about it, though for now it seems like they haven’t matched the rhetoric with action), but I doubt even he would want to go that far. Better a conventional victory or at least “victory” he can claim- even if one with diminished goals- than opening the nuclear genie and inviting us to look inside to see how much of Russia’s Strategics are still in working order. It’d also put his close allies like the PRC and his neutral business partners (outside of the most deranged like Iran, and maybe even them) in a tough spot.
That’s one reason I think we’re seeing the attempts to create a new puppet government at Kherson. To help put a seal on the first weeks of fighting in the South and a good spin (along with the siege of Mariupol) going into Victory Day. That’d help remove some of the foul taste from the Kyiv withdrawal and whatever is going on near Kharkhiv and the East.
Of course I’ve been wrong before, but that is my gut.
Looks like proxy war is going well
Guess would be cell phones
This explains why the Russians haven’t knocked out Ukrainian communication networks – they need the networks themselves !!
The Ukraine war isn’t a sporting event. I’m not willing to sacrifice for Ukraine. It isn’t a war I would want my children to die for. I am 64 and grew up with duck and cover, the bad guy as Russians, and am after the last 20 years of futile meddling, really would rather focus on America. Not only are men and children confused about their identity, we are too.
“I’m not willing to sacrifice for Ukraine. It isn’t a war I would want my children to die for. I am 64 and grew up with duck and cover, the bad guy as Russians, and am after the last 20 years of futile meddling, really would rather focus on America.”
Understandable. And we have a long way to go on that front here. Which is why while I have fairly strong stances on Ukraine, America must come first. That being said, I do think supporting the Ukrainian struggle. If nothing else it’s been nice to humiliate the left and their constant demonization of the right to keep and bear arms and how armed citizens are supposedly useless against a modern military, and repelling Putin will help undermine Yet Another Iran Nuclear Sellout.
Good luck to you and your family though.
The Obiden Junta and and their Davosian allies are prolonging a regional conflict over the vast resources of Ukraine by providing lethal aid intelligence to an already defeated and demoralized mititary that knows meaningful aid is not coming and they are fighting a war to the last Ukranian Meanwhile, their European allies are committing economic suicide by depriving themselve sof Russian enegergy, food and raw materials they deperately need. Already in recession they are moving quickly into depression. Europeans freeze and go bankrupt while the Russians are warm, well fed and the ruble trades at a value above pre war values. Yes, we provide lethal aid, training, and intelligence but the Russians are going to win and we are going to lose big as we have no hope of confronting or overcoming the new sino-russian alliance that now dominates eurasia. The deranged,demented, so-called leaders of the West where incompetence masquerades as omniscience have created a new Cold War with a power many times that of the USSR. Their hubris will forever prevent them from admitting their incompetence. Far better,like their Jacobin antecedents they simply be put to the guillotine.
Dear God, where do I start with this?
“The Obiden Junta and and their Davosian allies are prolonging a regional conflict over the vast resources of Ukraine by providing lethal aid intelligence ”
Correct, though given the territorial holdings of the two sides I’m not sure it is prolonging.
Moreover, the idea that this was ever merely over “the vast resources of Ukraine” has always been too reductionist and even quasi-Marxist. Ukraine’s never been PURELY about resources, which is one thing both Putin’s regime, the Davoise Globalists, and assorted Ukrainians can agree on.
“to an already defeated and demoralized mititary”
Ehhh… What?
Define “defeated and demoralized.”
Because the Kremlin’s withdrawal from outside Kyiv was a major morale boost to the Ukrainians, who (rightfully or wrongly- and in this case I’d guess probably rightly) believed they checked a conventional attack by the Russian military and helped block it, leading to the Russians withdrawing all the way to Belarus.
The failure of the Russians to seize a solid siege line around Kharkhiv and the ongoing counterattacks there are hardly indications of a “defeated or demoralized” force. Indeed, the Russians have generally fared much better on the Southern fronts than they have in the North or East, hence their conquest of Kherson and siege of Mariupol (or rather Azovstal, which is pretty much the last part of Mariupol they haven’t taken).
And even then the Russians haven’t had it easy.
“that knows meaningful aid is not coming”
Define “meaningful aid.”
Because last I checked, the ability to cripple one of the Russian Navy’s capital ships (and yes, we’re pretty sure that the Ukrainians actually did that, because the Russian narratives on the sinking of the Moskva not only contradict open source intelligence on the weather in the area but also make them look even worse) is “meaningful aid.” As are the large amounts of AT and AA weapons.
Which have been having an effect.
” and they are fighting a war to the last Ukranian ”
Which the Ukrainians seem to be willing- however grudgingly- to support.
“Meanwhile, their European allies are committing economic suicide by depriving themselve sof Russian enegergy, food and raw materials they deperately need.”
Which is one of the reason the globalists were happy to sabotage us and why this was immoral and wrong.
” Already in recession they are moving quickly into depression. Europeans freeze and go bankrupt”
Largely true.
” while the Russians are warm, well fed”
Eh what?
Have you been talking with any Russians living in the old Rodina lately? Because that really isn’t the situation there.
“and the ruble trades at a value above pre war values.”
Yeah, but only by cannibalizing much of the internal Russian market and currency manipulation so bold that even the likes of Keynes and the CCP might cry.
Which means that if anything, the Ruble is probably artificially over-valued (much like the Yuan is and used to be even moreso). Which also means it’s going to be vulnerable for shocks coming out, especially if countries stop accepting Russian demands to be paid for in Rubles.
This is not the sign of a functional economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEpk_yGjn0E
Particularly with the government having to try and artificially increase circulation with demands like being paid in Rubles.
” Yes, we provide lethal aid, training, and intelligence but the Russians are going to win and we are going to lose big”
We’ll have to see, but that’s dubious. The Russians are still struggling to wind down the final steps of the siege of Mariupol and consolidate their occupation of Kherson. And that’s come at acute cost to their economy and especially international prestige.
” as we have no hope of confronting or overcoming the new sino-russian alliance that now dominates eurasia. ”
Eh what?
This “Sino-Russian Alliance” isn’t new. It also isn’t insurmountable, especially with the rot and drywall now visible with things like the insanely brutal and counter-productive lockdowns in the PRC, the “Bare Branch” result of Chinese demography, and that in Russia.
Moreover, you’re ignoring the great Third Wheel of Eurasian politics: India, a country triangulating between Russia and we in the West but fiercely antagonistic to the PRC( hence the ongoing Cold Border War), which Trump wisely identified and worked.
The West, Russia, and China are all weak in fairly profound but different ways. Victory will largely come to the least-unhealthy and least-censorious society. Right now, I don’t know that is but public debacles like the forced lockdowns of the CCP and the poor Russian showing in Ukraine aren’t good indicators. Then again, the US has a corrupt, senile stooge “in power”/under the control of his puppeteers and the EUnichs are only just now starting to talk about trying to regain some independent energy production, so I guess we’ll see.
“The deranged,demented, so-called leaders of the West where incompetence masquerades as omniscience have created a new Cold War with a power many times that of the USSR. ”
And what power is that? Because it sure as heck isn’t the modern PRC, which still can’t figure out a way out of the “First Island Chain” and- much like the Kremlin- has a habit of royally antagonizing the countries in its “Near Abroad.”
And who has the world’s largest military…dedicated primarily to dealing with the world’s largest ongoing internal turmoil and protests.
“Their hubris will forever prevent them from admitting their incompetence.”
Sure, but that goes equally well for the CCP and Kremlin.
” Far better,like their Jacobin antecedents they simply be put to the guillotine.”
Sure, but the same applies there. Indeed, it’s telling that Russia and the CCP lack the kinds of transparency and ability to self-correct that even we do, and their modern imitators here in the West like Biden are trying to imitate that folly with things like the left’s attempt to create an American Minitrue in response to Musk.