Joe Biden is leading in many of the polls, and just like in 2016, the media is all too happy to repeat this news over and over. On the ground, however, something very different is happening.
Early voting, which we have been told is supposed to favor Joe Biden, is not delivering for him, even in key states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
Michael Lee reports at the Washington Examiner:
Early voting data in battleground states shows Trump outpacing national polls giving Biden an edgeThe Republican Party is keeping pace in mail-in and early voting in three key swing states despite polls showing early voting should clearly favor Joe Biden.Data out of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio indicates that registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats in the battleground states.In Michigan as of Wednesday, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats. The preliminary data matches up with the requests by party affiliation for mail-in ballots.The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person. According to a Pew Research poll released Friday, 55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.
For a few weeks now, there has been a massive divide between what the polls say and what you can see happening on the ground. Every poll shows Biden leading, yet public support for Trump remains huge and enthusiastic.
One other thing that’s not showing up in the polls and that’s favoring Trump is voter registration.
Jonathan Garber writes at the FOX Business Network:
Voter-registration patterns give Trump an edge invisible to polls: JPMorganThe 2020 presidential race may be closer than the polls suggest, according to an analysis of voter registration trends by JPMorgan Chase.Changes in the number of voters registered to each of the major parties have proven to be a significant variable in election outcomes in the past, according to strategists at the New York-based bank, which analyzed trends in some of the battleground states that will be crucial to an electoral college victory.Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 9.2 points nationally, according to an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, but his lead is at a tighter 4.9 points in hotly contested states…In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.
Trump supporters can’t take anything for granted, but this news is encouraging.
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