Some thoughts on filling the Supreme Court vacancy before Election Day, in no particular order:
1. It’s bigger than Trump and this election. Filling this seat quickly is an exercise of power while we have it. It’s impossible to know what will be after November 3, but we know what is now. And what it is now is a chance to lawfully and constitutionally alter the balance of the Supreme Court for years, maybe decades, to come. This chance may never present itself again, certainly not if Trump loses and/or Republicans lose the Senate.
2. Filling the vacancy now is protection against … John Roberts. From Obamacare to the recent religious liberty lockdown cases, the Chief Justice has shown himself to be unreliable and subject to pressure campaigns. Particularly when the 2020 election cases (which there will be) make their way to the Supreme Court, a rogue Roberts could result in a 4-4 deadlock, which means the appeals court decision stands. A 6-3 Supreme Court nullifies Rogue Roberts.
3. Republicans and Trump voters want Republicans and Trump to fight. The best way to demoralize Republican and Trump voters is to not fight for this. Given the structural electoral college advantage Democrats have with a lock on several of the largest states, Trump needs to motivate his voters in several swing states he barely won in 2016.
4. Trump has indicated he likely will pick a woman. There are many qualified conservative female judges to choose from. While I don’t like identity politics, it’s probably a smart move to pick a woman if you want a quick process. It also means Trump should choose someone who is well-known and has a track record — less likely to be a surprise skeleton in the closet.
5. There is hypocrisy to go around to all sides. You can find statements on both sides that contradict their current position. There are many nominations that went slower or faster. So there is no pure and driven snow. If the Democrats were in the position Republicans are in now, they would ram through an RBG-clone with media cheerleading and would throw a DC Dance Party (aka riot for the fun of it) with no masks or social distancing.
6. The impact on the November 3 election is impossible to predict. I could make an argument either way. My gut tells me that the additional dose of frenzy helps Trump more because the Supreme Court is not about personalities of the Justices, it’s about a more fundamental conception of the country.
7. Be prepared to be stabbed in the back by a handful of Republican Senators. We can afford to lose three of them. I’m not sure we can hold the line at that. However precarious the headcount may be now, it would be worse in a lame duck administration.
8. Someone get through to Susan Collins that if she votes against this, she is done, Republicans will not show up for her. If she votes for this, she may or may not be done, it’s a toss up. Her only chance of reelection is fighting to fill the seat, or at least not getting in the way.
10. Democrats treated Brett Kavanaugh worse than dirt. Although he made it through, it’s an open wound that has not healed. I don’t think Democrats or the media understand the impact the debasement of Kavanaugh had. If they could do it to him, they could do it to anyone. And they are, through cancel culture. Don’t get mad, get even. Getting even is a fast confirmation before Election Day.
11. Go ahead and riot, make our day. Riots are working so well for Democrats even Biden and Pelosi had to come out against them eventually. Now Democrats are threatening more. Go ahead. Call their bluff.
12. Chuck Schumer and other Democrats are threatening that “nothing is off the table” if Democrats take control of the Senate, such as eliminating the legislative filibuster. Sorry Chuckie, we don’t negotiate with hostage takers or extortionists.
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