Democrats Suddenly Decide the Electoral College is GOOD Again
“Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report and Nate Silver of 538 — have released updated looks at the electoral map. And the picture they paint for Trump is dire.”
As you may recall, after the 2016 election, Democrats and the activist left demanded the dismantling of the Electoral College system. Some of them even harassed electors, demanding that they not cast their votes for Trump.
Now that Biden is polling well in some swing states, that sentiment is suddenly changing.
Geoffrey Skelley writes at FiveThirtyEight:
New Polling Shows Trump’s Electoral College Advantage Is Slipping
A new batch of polls released by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College this morning has caused a stir as they gave former Vice President Joe Biden leads ranging from 6 to 11 percentage points in six key battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Yet these surveys largely reinforced what our polling averages already showed: Biden has a sizable edge over President Trump in the states that are most likely to be the tipping point in the Electoral College, and he leads or is running even with Trump in some states that leaned Republican in 2016. As a result, Trump’s much-ballyhooed Electoral College advantage doesn’t look strong enough to save him — for the moment, at least.
The Times/Siena is one of the most highly-rated pollsters in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings — one of six with an A+ mark — so these new surveys did adjust our averages a bit, most notably in Pennsylvania. There had been few high-quality polls conducted in the Keystone State, so our polling average did shift roughly 1.5 points in Biden’s favor because of the Times/Siena survey, which found Biden up by 10 points.
Leaving aside Biden’s obviously diminished mental capacity, he has promised policies which would destroy jobs in Pennsylvania’s energy industry, so I’m not sure why anyone there would support him.
At CNN, Chris Cillizza can barely contain his glee over the possible shift:
The electoral map just keeps getting worse for Trump
It’s easy to get lost in the sea of national polls — all of which show former Vice President Joe Biden with high-single digit lead over President Donald Trump.
But as we learned in 2016 (and 2000!), the only count that really matters is the Electoral College.
Unfortunately for Trump, his chances of getting to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win a second term are looking, at least the moment, quite dim.
Over the past week, two major political prognosticators — Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report and Nate Silver of 538 — have released updated looks at the electoral map. And the picture they paint for Trump is dire.
“With just under five months until the election, President Trump is a severe underdog for re-election,” writes Walter, who puts 248 electoral votes solidly or leaning to Biden and 204 solidly or leaning to Trump.
Bloomberg News is also happily repeating this news. Gregory Korte writes:
Biden Now Leads in Six States Key to Trump’s 2016 Victory
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in every one of six key battleground states, all but erasing the advantage with White voters that Trump used to put together a razor-thin victory four years ago.
The New York Times/Siena College poll of swing states, together with national polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead, helps to draw an Electoral College map that will be increasingly difficult for Trump to win.
Biden leads Trump by 10 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 11 in Michigan and Wisconsin, potentially reclaiming the three “blue wall” states that Trump broke through to beat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
It’s important to remember that if the Electoral College delivers a win to Trump in November, all of this current excitement will evaporate and the left will immediately resume calls for the system to be dissolved.
The message is clear. If the system elects Democrats, it’s fine. If it elects Trump, it is obviously flawed.
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Comments
Here we go with the polls again.
They (we?) didn’t learn anything in 2016.
Nate and Amy say Hillary still has a 99.9%+ chaonce to win.
Just to be accurate, I believe Silver gave her a 70% chance of winning. I don’t think anyone on either side expected the divergence of the popular vote and the electoral count in 2016. I sure didn’t.
That divergence made it possible for me to win opposing election bets in 2016. In June, I predicted that Trump would be elected, the wager being a bunch of Alaska salmon vs. grass-fed Colorado steaks. In October, I predicted that Hillary would win, but by less than 4%. On Election Day, my final prediction was Hillary by 2%.
You know what helped? In that election, I looked at all of the candidates and decided they were jokes, and decided to write in Vermin Supreme. In WA State, you can write in, but your vote won’t be counted if the recipient doesn’t register as a candidate, and Verm didn’t do that.
My lesson is this: Don’t bet on any election where you have an advocacy stake in the outcome. This year, I’ll probably cast another write-in, but will be disappointed if Trump loses. Therefore, I won’t make any bets or trust my predictions.
I think the debates will be the key. I’ve been watching them for 50 years, and expect these to be the wildest. I’m really hoping that Biden bursts a vessel in his eyeball while he babbles, and perhaps suffers a leak in his Depend underwear. One way or the other, it’ll be entertaining as hell. LOL
June polling data………..Bush & Trump lead but both trail Hillary.
https://www.cnn.com/2015/07/01/politics/donald-trump-poll-hillary-clinton-jeb-bush/index.html
June 2015, that is.
The system is only terrible if we lose.
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Let the Dems’ polling excitement grow.
Some time next month, POOF! It’ll be gone, just like Biden’s ability to speak.
I wonder what kind of number voodoo they are cooking, to get a 2 digit lead for a guy that is hiding in a basement and can’t draw an audience of 100 people.
This election has nothing to do with Biden. It is an election between Trump and Anyone Except Trump. Biden is merely a placeholder who will be gone shortly after the election, Dems know that even more than we do.
No voodoo necessary. The pollsters collect the data, analyze it, throw it in the bin, then fabricate the numbers that the democrats are looking for and publish them as “official numbers”.
I highly doubt the numbers bear any relationship to reality so I ignore what the pollsters claim.
Just skewing statistics or flat out lying. Did you know the average American has one testicle?
The Real Question is whether the MSM will believe their own tripe like last time.
They always do.
It’s “Generic Democrat” vs. Trump essentially. As long as Biden stays in his cave, people compare an idealized candidate to an actual person.
It’s frankly the only thing they can do right now. I think the debates will lay bare to all just how much Biden has lost in the last few years. Which is why we’re already hearing calls to abandon them from the “umpires” in the press.
I watched a portion of the Obama-McCain debates. McCain raised point after point, cited facts and figures, and made arguments. The O said “hope…change…hope…change…hope..change…” in that sonorous baritone voice as if he were an automaton with a wind-up key in his back. Yet people were so sick of Bush and the GOP that they elected that nonentity for two terms.
It’s called “polling registered voters instead of likely voters”. Polls of registered voters always lean D simply because Republicans are more likely to go vote. These polls are nothing but masturbation fodder for leftists.
In other words, they have figured out where they need to steal the election.
Ding! They are getting ahead of the curve.
They either believe their own polls, heavily skewed with D voters, OR, they are expecting (planning?) a massive mail-in ballot onslaught to win those states, and say “See? We won, fair and square (wink), and the Electoral College needs to validate that.
Yes. I think you will be amazed at the number of >90% voting precincts across the nation in the upcoming election. Some of the majority black precincts in Florida had > 100% voting in the last election, and none of those ballots were thrown out.
Liberals are divergent. Progressives are monotonic. Their religion is Pro-Choice, selective, opportunistic, politically congruent (“=”).
Oh, and we should be prepared for riots again if “the Electoral College delivers a win to Trump in November.”
that can only mean the focus groups are trending in there favor.
It’s mind-boggling that anyone really puts any faith in these polls.
Consider: what is likely to happen to anyone who expresses any hint of approval of Orange Man Bad, or even of Republicans or anything remotely conservative? He’ll find his house surrounded by peasants with torches and pitchforks, that’s what. And, after the last few weeks, he can have pretty good confidence that law enforcement will do nothing to disperse the rabble. So who’d be dumb enough to take the chance? Leftoids, however, will chat all day long with pollsters, because there’s zero chance that any of those mythical White Supremacists or Right-Wing Extremists will jump on his car, burn his town, threaten his kids, or kill his dog. So if the pollsters only talk to leftoids, they’ll have plenty of data suggesting that everybody is a leftoid.
Is it just me that thinks Biden will be crushed in a landslide this November? Not cocky about it, just saying.
I have the same feeling, but I think it can be dangerous.
We can not get complacent and end up thinking “he’s got this” because that could cause some to stay home, thinking their votes are not needed.
This election is ‘all or nothing’. We have to assume our lives depend on it, and go out to vote.
I’ll be voting as many times as they let me. Also going to make sure a couple other people get to the polls to pile on against Biden.
I was planning to vote, then die, then vote again.
Then I remember that I am not a Democrat.
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Once again, it is a “Flight 93 election:”
https://legalinsurrection.com/2019/07/2020-the-flight-93-election-once-again/
Michigan has 100% mail in voting this year with a dem secstate. Trump will lose 100% of the counties regardless of who votes.
Can we wear MAGA hats to the polls?
I wore a t-shirt with an elephant holding an American flag in its trunk to vote two years ago. The volunteer lady asked me to zip up my jacket. I told her I had gotten the shirt in Alabama and figured it was for the college/football team. She scowled and I obliged.
If the polls reflect reality (big if IMHO) then our country really is done for – we can’t survive a populace of idiots that would openly vote for a senile fool (even given that a number of them surely must realize they’re not voting for Biden as much as they’re voting for his eventual running mate).
There is no “if.” All polls are lies.
If reality happens to match them, it’s by accident, not design.
I believe Trump will win in a landslide, and I am cocky about it — but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t crawl over hot coals and broken glass to make sure my vote for him gets counted.
Confidence is not complacency.
The Democrats do not believe the polls at all. The evidence for that is the current massive voter suppression going on via the Kung Flu hype and the use of political street troops and the attempts at engineering a massive vote fraud campaign through mail-in balloting.
The reason why they love the electoral college, at the moment, is because they can’t get rid of it. Most of the voter and voter fraud will occur in the swing states, especially in Democrat dominated areas of those states, just like last time.
I’ve lived through many elections, several with polls wildly off.
In my experience the polls that are wildly off have one thing in common. People have a strong incentive to lie to the pollsters.
If you are a Trump supportyer and a stranger person came up to you or called you and asked who you are voting for, would you say Trump?
That’s why I didn’t believe the polls in 2016, that’s the why I don’t believe the polls now.
From what I have seen, polls are not credible. Regardless of what pollsters say, I will vote for Trump.
Dems have gone past left, into wacko territory. They would run America off a cliff.
What’s the difference between current American pollster methods and the ancient Roman tradition of predicting the future by “reading” sheep’s livers?
The Roman method was way more reliable and accurate.