Brexit Redux? Scarborough, Cillizza Agree: There Is a Hidden Trump Vote
Scarborough: People Still Whispering to Me as They Leave the Room: They’re Voting for Him
Could Donald Trump pull a Brexit, confounding elite opinion by winning the election with votes that the polls didn’t pick up? On today’s Morning Joe, Joe Scarborough and Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post agreed it could happen.
Scarborough said that people are still whispering to him as they leave the room that they’re voting for Tump, but are embarrassed to tell pollsters given the coverage of his comments about women, etc. There are limits to the phenomenon: in Cillizza and Scarborough’s view, the hidden Trump vote is unlikely to exceed 1.5%. But if Trump can continue to tighten the race in these two final weeks . . . it could be a very interesting election night.
JOE SCARBOROUGH: The Trump campaign has been saying for about a week now that this is going to be America’s Brexit. If you’ve got a 13-point lead and you are Hillary Clinton, this ain’t going to be America’s Brexit. Even five points, a little too much, probably. It’s two or three, there’s that possibility.
. . .
JOE: I know that in Mika and my experiences over the past year, nobody admits it publicly and then whispers as you leave the room, that yes, in fact they’re voting for Trump, and it’s still happening. Do you think there is, possibly, a one or two point hidden vote for Donald Trump out there, for people that are embarrassed to tell pollsters that the guy who’s been on TV for the past week sexually harassing women or insulting them is the guy they’re going to be voting for?
CHRIS CILLIZZA: Yes. And I find it strange even that I’m saying it, because typically and Joe you know this from having run for office, typically the “we’ve got a secret 5% vote,” never works. That’s what you say when you lose.
JOE: Always nonsense.
CHRIS: I’ve noticed it and I am hesitant to put too much weight in anecdotal evidence but that’s all we have to go on because if you don’t tell the pollster who you’re for we don’t have scientific evidence. Anecdotal evidence suggests that here are people that don’t want to tell their friends and certainly don’t want to tell someone random calling them on the phone for a poll that they’re for him. So yes, I do think. What I think is dangerous is to assume it’s more than — you said one to 2%. I think that’s absolutely the high end.
JOE: I agree.
. . .
CHRIS: There is even more so the possibility of a point for Trump out there because of the campaign he has run. You’re not going — Mitt Romney, say what you want, but there’s not going to be a lot of hidden vote for Mitt Romney because he ran as a very traditional Republican. The themes and the way in which Trump has run suggests that possibility exists more because there is the embarrassment factor, but you are for him at the end of the day but you don’t necessarily want to–for exactly what you guys were talking about–do you really want to say “yeah, I know he said that stuff on the hot mic, and I know 11 women have come forward, but I’m for him?” You may not want to share that information with people, but that doesn’t mean you wouldn’t necessarily vote for him. So I think he is a unique — as in everything in this election, he is a unique case.
DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.
Comments
Wikileaks revealed one of the ways the media is trying to help Hillary is to manipulate polls so it appears the election is all but won by her.
Don’t believe the polls! If everyone gets out and votes, there is a good chance Trump will win. I don’t really like Trump, but I detest Hillary.
I could certainly be wrong, but the Dems don’t realize what is about to hit them in Nov. Or their internal polls are showing it which may be why Hillary has virtually stopped campaigning.
All these Russian and lewd sex talk stories out of the Dem camp are stories of desperation. Why would they release the audio tape of Trump’s trashy mouth a month before the election? Why not on Nov 4th? Their internals are scaring the daylites out of them. Last week, Killary, out of frustration, asked why she isn’t 50 points ahead at a rally. Dems are desperate.
The most partisan Dem union is SEIU, (2M members) yet their prez, can’t remember her name knows there is deep economic anxiety among her members & Trump is making an impact on her members. The trade union’s local prez have already told the national office that their members are in revolt and the vote isn’t going to Dems in the big #s of the past. AFL-CIO prez Dick Trumka knows more than half will defy the national office and will vote for Trump. There’s 12M AFL-CIO members and union members generally carry their entire family into voting as a block. You can guess what the United Coal Workers are doing this election cycle.
Then there are 54 million Christians who didn’t vote for Romney because he is LDS, they will walk on hot coals barefoot to vote this election.
Reagan was down 11%, one week out from the election, he won in a landslide. The current MSM polls are slanted to suppress the vote, convince Trump supporters to give up and not bother to vote. Again I could be wrong, but empirical evidence says otherwise.
The current MSM polls are slanted to suppress the vote, convince Trump supporters to give up and not bother to vote.
Fraudulent polls have another function; to make a fraudulent vote seem more plausible.
If the polls make it look like a Trump landslide is inevitable, but the voting machines manage to deliver a Clinton victory, hundreds of millions of voters will be very suspicious.
If, however, the polls make it look like a Hillary win, and the voting machines do indeed deliver a win, then it’s easier to rationalize the idea that maybe the whole thing wasn’t rigged.
That conclusion would be false, because obviously any organization which can fix votes can also fix polls, so the fact that both agree isn’t independent confirmation. But the number of suspicious voters will be much smaller.
According to “Joe and Chris” and the logic they employ, there’s a secret Hellary vote, too.
I mean, who wants to tell a pollster you’re voting for the Hell-Bitch?
Cuz liberals are soooo shy about ranting on about their politics in polite company??? Not likely.
Also disaffected crybabies and low info voters stay home. Conservatives are compelled to vote.
If you think that a lot of Hellary voters are enthusiastic about voting for her, you’re out of your mind.
PLUS, that runs against the “low enthusiasm” meme of the T-rumpian bubble.
So take your pick.
There might be a secret #NeverTrump vote of college-educated conservative women who are not telling their families that they are not voting for Trump.
I don’t believe it, personally, just like I don’t believe in any other “secret ” votes.
You want to see Bat *hit crazy?
That’s what will see from the loony left when Trump wins! 🙂
There is also a Hidden Hillary vote.
Reports from Houston Texas indicate that voters who have hit Straight GOP ticket see the voting machines register their presidential vote Hillary/Kaine.
You forgot a link to the “reports”.
Texas early voting rules
http://keranews.org/post/early-voting-texas-underway-here-s-where-go-and-what-bring
Not in Houston, so far
http://www.click2houston.com/video/day-1-of-early-voting-in-texas-voter-problems-at-polls
The talk about problems appears to stem from the 2014 election, which DID have problems, including leaving a candidate off the ballot entirely at some terminals, and switching votes.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/03/austin-radio-station-flooded-with-reports-of-voting-machines-switching-votes-from-trump-to-rubio/
Naturally, there should be questions about voting problems, from yesterday through the final count. If voters are going to bother to stand in line for 2 hours, they just might be explicit about their desire to have a clean count.
The flood of early voters suggests to me that people are trying to ensure that they get the opportunity to vote, if not on one day, then another.
Ah, here it is. Potter and Randall counties.
http://kissfm969.com/early-voters-from-amarillo-are-saying-their-votes-were-changed-on-the-ballot/
And the election officials are blaming it on voter error.
No problem here; No option for paper ballot
http://amarillo.com/news/local-news/2016-10-25/potter-county-judge-nothing-wrong-voting-machines
Tanner said she verified with Potter County Elections Administrator Melynn Huntley that there have been no problems with the machines.
In Randall County there has been one reported incident of an irregularity, Tanner said.
A voter said they cast a straight-ticket ballot and, when they hit the vote button, it flipped parties. It was reported to an election official. The ballot was canceled and the voter allowed to vote again on another machine, Tanner said.
“I urge the voters to take the opportunity to review their ballot before they hit the vote button,” Tanner said. “As everyone knows, our fingers don’t always do what our brain tells them.”
Tanner also said that voters cannot request a paper ballot as is being reported by many people making posts on social media.
Local voting machines are both calibrated and tested daily.
———————————————-
Wow. It’s a scandal. Not.
It’s also not in Houston. Nor anywhere near.
But have your hair catch fire! It’ll give you something to do today…
One report of a ‘glitch’ could represent a hundred that were not caught.
Lets face it. If the machines are leaving off entire races, they kinda lose credibility.
…or they COULD reflect EXACTLY ONE screw-up by a voter.
Without proof, you got nothin’ but a conspiracy myth and some ASSumptions.
SHorter Rags: Don’t confuse me with facts.
This machine behavior was reported in 2012, and other places this year. And of course there’s no audit trail.
IF you have “facts”, put them on the table.
I haven’t seen shit-all supporting any “vote fraud” in THIS part of Texas.
Put up or shut up.
Let’s see if Rags melts like the Wicked Witch as the facts land on him.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-25/texas-rigged-first-reports-voting-machines-switching-votes-hillary-texas
A bunch of apocryphal bullshit doesn’t even phase me, Spunky.
So far, there are ZERO reports of a ballot being queered that was counted, and I’ve learned how some voters have managed to change their own ballots accidentally with the voting machines used.
Stan Stanart is the Harris Co. Clerk, and a solid conservative. He runs a very clean operation. The same is true of most of the counties in Texas.
Don’t be stupid.
Oh, we have an entire firehose of facts for the liar:
http://denver.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/cbs4-investigation-finds-people-voting-twice/
Chambers County switches to paper ballots
http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2016/10/25/texas-county-switches-paper-ballots-software-glitch/
That’s always good to hear. I wish my country would do the same.
But in a recent interview, Trump let his guard down just long enough to show he knows the reality of the situation.
From Politico:
“I think we’re gonna have — whether it’s Brexit or beyond Brexit, I think we’re gonna have a Brexit situation,” Trump told Bob Thompson of WBT’s “Charlotte’s Morning News,” referring to the British referendum in which voters decided to leave the European Union. “You know, that one was behind in the polls, and I guess I’m somewhat behind in the polls but not by much. I mean, in your state, I’m 1 point, 2 points and even in three polls. 1 point, 2 points and even.”
Trump and his followers have spent a lot of time saying the polls were false, and purposefully misleading, but here he seems to be giving them credence enough to be factual. If that is the case, then we just got a brief look into just how much Trump is acknowledging his predicament.
He’s losing and he knows it.
–RedState
Of course, Kellyanne has said the same thing. They have their own internal polling, too.
I pay attention to polls that are graphs across time, and which also report the margin of error, usually as a wide shadow behind the darker graph markings.
They tell me that the race has been within the margin of error for many months.
Rags…the usual antiTrumper
in Cillizza and Scarborough’s view, the hidden Trump vote is unlikely to exceed 1.5%
Hahahaha, funny stuff.
What’s the name of Joe’s show again? Hope Springs Eternal?
Now, were their prognostications based on something scientific … a reading of sheep’s entrails, perhaps … then maybe someone might think they could be on to something.
The only interesting thing about election night will be watching to see where the Dem fraud machine does its best work.
The only interesting thing about election night will be watching to see where the Dem fraud machine does its best work.
Philadelphia. As always.
You can thank Minister King Samir Shabazz, Jerry Jackson, Attorney General Eric Holder and your friendly, neighborhood New Black Panther Party for that.
What part of “hidden vote” doesn’t joe understand. If it is hidden, you don’t know how much it is. I’ve seen in elections past the hidden vote to be 0 to literally double the vote for a person.
Aside from the fact that Wikileaks indicates that Clinton can and does manipulate the polls, polling is getting much harder. I’ve pointed out the polls don’t indicate anything.
The one telling thing is how the candidates act. That indicates a bit what internal polling is telling them. I see Trump confident. I see Hillary dragging out everyone, from Obama to Al Gore to help out.
Not doubt its a funny season. I live outside of Detroit and work in the City. Not a single “Hillary” sign from my house to the expressway (about 21 miles) and very few “Hillary” signs are found in Detroit, unlike the past.
Trump will be in Toledo (OH) on Thursday and I’ve already had nine emails from friends asking, “are you going”. I am not and to be fair, I am not a Trump “fan”. Course, I know it comes down to Trump or Clinton so I’m on that fence but leaning Trump. Clinton along with Chelsea and Bill were just in Toledo and not a single email from anyone nor did I see a single friend fb post with photos.
Yeah, I know this is all anecdotal but it strikes me as odd that Trump is getting 10, 15, 20 thousands folks at his events and Hillary drew just over 400 in Detroit (I was there for it – not because I intended to be but because it was near my work and I figured what the heck, I’ll walk down). Seems there is a huge excitement gap right now. Maybe I am wrong. I will say that the wife and I went to the UP (Upper Peninsula) last month and then over to Green Bay. On the way back we played a game with the kids, “find the sign”. Told them whoever could keep track of signs would win their choice of dinner at Red Robin (not like we weren’t all going anyhow). Trump signs from Green Bay back to Ann Arbor outnumbered Clinton 5 to 1. It’s not science but it does give you pause to wonder if we’re actually being spoon fed a story instead of being told the truth. Guess we’ll know soon enough.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/10113
Predictions of Deemocrats taking Senate seats are heating up.
Yay, T-rump train…!!!
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/10/25/hmmm-florida-democrats-gaining-early-voting-2012/
Those are hard numbers of votes (barring all that “rigging”) and they look kinda…bad…
Can we bury the urban legend that polls predicted Brexit wrong?
“Polling averages showed “Leave” with a lead for most of the last month[before vote]; over all, 17 of the 35 surveys conducted in June showed the Leave side with the edge, while 15 showed Remain ahead”
And it’s apples to oranges anyway. U.K. Polling and US polling.
You must factor in three other polls and human nature . Hillary constantly in polls has 56 % believe she should have been indicted . I have seen this on three separate polls .
That leaves 44% which is where she has hovered in the polls for months .
I believe it is human nature, that if anyone above that ceiling would be voting for her, they would have convinced themselves that she should not have been charged . The ones who believe she is , but would vote for her anyway would probably answered no for charges to begin with . Few want to believe they are supporting someone who is a criminal.
.
She does not go over that ceiling statistically and has remained stagnant . All leads are due to Trump dropping, not her gaining . I do not believe Johnson Stein will top 5_7 % … The rest is Trumps
I think we are seeing where the battlelines are drawn .
I believe the question about indictment is far more telling than the polls themselves . She has always had a 45 or so percent that hated and hate her .
Prediction
Third party 5%
Hillary 44%
Fraud 2%
Trump 49%
I think we know who the fraud goes to.
You could be right. And your prediction could be totally irrelevant.
The popular vote could mean nothing.
The old adage about “Real Estate?”
Location, Location, Location?
Joe: Do you think there is, possibly, a one or two point hidden vote for Donald Trump out there, for people that are embarrassed to tell pollsters that the guy who’s been on TV for the past week sexually harassing women or insulting them is the guy they’re going to be voting for?
————
How come they don’t say there might be a one or two point hidden vote for a criminal hateful hitlery that flounts the law with impunity? That her voters think it’s just fine that she takes money from the middle east and wants to add more terrorists to America and that her criminality is perfectly fine with them?
The press has been even more abominable this year. So glad I dumped cable tv four years ago.
When you look for something you really want and it isn’t there, you don’t accept that. Hoping it’s there somewhere, you just have to assume it’s invisible.
On the other hand, all the polls right up to the last day had Carter beating Reagan in 1980, which ended, famously, in a Reagan landslide. If you’re a Trump supporter, there is hope. Sort of. Well, not really. Trump is no Reagan.