A quote from Lenin that’s been running through my head, post Iran deal:
“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.”
There are economic ramifications of the Iran deal, particularly to Europe. Europe was chomping at the bit to get access to trade with Iran, and for many Europeans sticking it to Israel into the bargain would be a feature rather than a bug.
Russia was already about to trade with Iran, as announced in April. But the reason Russia was going to do this was that the Iran deal was already in the offing, and Russia knew sanctions would be lifted and wanted to get the jump on the action before the West did. The missiles Russia proposed to sell Iran are defensive in nature only, but:
…[T]he Kremlin is lifting a ban on selling a powerful air defense system to Iran that would render an airstrike on Tehran’s nuclear weapons facilities nearly impossible.The delivery of the new weapon, called the Almaz-Antei S-300PMU-1—known as the SA-20 Gargoyle in NATO parlance—would effectively force the U.S. to rely on its small fleet of stealth aircraft to strike targets inside Iran in case the mullahs make a dash for the bomb. But even those aircraft might have a difficult time.
So, the diplomatic machinations of the Obama administration are likely to make it impossible for most nations to attack Iran’s weapons facilities, and to make it difficult even for us to do so.
And please recall that this was a missile system that, in Obama’s first term, he had fought against letting Russia give to Iran:
The U.S. government has lobbied Russia hard for years to prevent the sale of the S-300 to Iran. In 2010, convincing Putin to suspend the sale of the S-300 to Iran was heralded as a major foreign policy coup by the Obama administration. In many ways, it was one of the central achievements of the so-called reset in relations with Moscow, said Heather Conley, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Those were the days, my friend.
Even if Obama had wanted to hang tough in the Iran negotiations (and there is no indication that he did), this Russian missile deal announced in April would have made it very difficult to do so:
“I find it almost hilarious that the Russians are saying, ‘It’s an entirely defensive system and cannot attack anyone, including Israel,’” the [an Air Force commander] said. “But it also essentially makes Iran attack-proof by Israel and almost any country without fifth-gen [stealth fighter] capabilities. In other words, Iran, with the S-300, can continue to do what they want once those systems are in place without fear of attack from anyone save the U.S. Brilliant chess move…”
It seems that Israel would have to attack before these or similar systems are in place, if it attacks at all. What a horrific dilemma for them—a dilemma that ought to be giving Obama no end of pleasure, since it would be putting his most detested head of state, Benjamin Netanayhu, on the hot seat.
And about that rope to sell. From a commenter on my blog:
So now Europe gets some oil and gas and the French and Brits sell cigarettes to…Iran. Nice deal in light of the fact that Iran will turn up its terrorism funding. And the terrorists will be sent to Paris and London.
And to other countries in the Mideast—and most likely to the US, the Great Satan.
[Neo-neocon is a writer with degrees in law and family therapy, who blogs at neo-neocon.]
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