As of 8:15 p.m. Eastern, all further updating at Wisconsin Recall LIVE
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I’ll gather links and reports here until the results coverage starts.
The Wisconsin Reporter Twitter account is a good source to follow, along with Charlie Sykes, Christian Schneider, and Kevin Binversie.
(links, most recent on top)
Two WI GOP sources say Dems/Barrett preparing lawsuit to keep polls open late in Dane & Milwaukee counties. GOP will fight it.
Madison turnout now projected at 96% not 119%. It’s the same day registrations, for sure, which means who knows who they really are.
Both GOP and Dem sources confirm that Drudge_Report is wrong – point to tight race. What sources?
Wausau City Clerk reports that turn out was at 53% as of 4:00 p.m.
General rule: The media, who love the horserace aspect, love exit polls. Campaign pros both R and D dismiss them cold.
* 2010 Redux: The makeup of the voters appears very close to the original 2010 contest — on race, ideology and religion, among other factors. The early data do skew a little older, which may be a function of who cast ballots earlier in the day.* Party identification: There’s rough parity in the recall electorate — about a third each identify as Democrats, Republicans and independents — in early exit poll results.* Party favorables: Just fewer than half of voters in preliminary exit poll results hold favorable views of both the Democratic and Republican parties. These early results closely reflect the divided attitudes of the state in the 2010 midterm election.* Tea party: The tea party fervor that swept the 2010 midterms looks to be stable this year, with similar numbers supporting and opposing the movement.
Don’t get cocky: Drudge headline: EXIT POLLS SHOW WALKER HOLDING SEAT”
DailyKos has a good chart tracking 2010 Barrett v Walker vote percentages by county. “Barrett will need well over two-thirds of the vote in these latter two urban counties [Milwaukee, Dane], while getting at least one-third of the suburban vote, to have a shot at winning this.”
“Democrats, prepping for a potential recount, have over 400 attorneys in the state.”
Appleton city clerk and Fond du Lac county clerk say turnout could be as high as 75%. Others expecting 60-65%
Why I’m actually glad DOJ is in Milwaukee … Milw 04: “there was a [4600-vote] discrepancy between the ballot count and the number of people listed as having voted”
Just spoke with Waukesha Co Exec Dan Vrakas who tells me turnout there could hit 75%”
Official turnout prediction today: 60 to 65%; Wisconsin turnout 2008: 69.2%; 2010: 49.7%
Dane co. clerk this morning: “We could hit 80 to 88 percent” turnout. She now says it will be closer to 75%
My friend from Waukesha just got back and he reported that districts 17, 18, 19 have full parking lots and long lines.
High turnout at Waukesha wards 3 4 and 5. already surpassed may primary same day registration number
Dems still obsessing about Kathy Nickolaus even though she will play no role in vote counting in Waukesha county.
Clerks in big Republican counties (Waukesha & Washington) won’t give turnout estimate, will release numbers when polls close.
“A significant number of new voters were registering at the polls.”–Sue Edman, Milwaukee City Election Commission Exec. Director
This is one of the scariest statements and if Walker loses this would be why:
Photo ID is not required and same-day registration is permitted in Wisconsin
Exit polling shows that the election will be decided on turnout.
Christian Schneider, who now blogs at JSOnline (I forgot!) has a really handy chart of historical turnout by county — hopefully Waukesha will counteract Dane.
Dems are alleging “dirty tricks” in the form of supposed robocalls telling people they don’t have to vote if they signed the recall petition. Per link, no one as yet has provided proof of such calls.
Turnout is heavy throughout the state per Wisconsin State Journal, including the liberal stronghold of Dane County (which includes Madison):
Voters and public officials are reporting long lines at many Wisconsin polling places Tuesday — with Dane County Clerk Karen Peters calling the turnout “just wild” so far.”It ranges from 28 to 42 percent already; it is a huge turnout. We could hit 80 to 88 percent,” said Peters, who at midday was just fielding calls wrapping up a status report from clerks around the county.
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