There was an interesting article today on the Forbes site about the prospects of Tuesday’s census report release. An expanding population in the sun belt, and a decline in the Rust Belt, may reform our elections in 2012 and beyond.
“The population continues to shift from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the nation must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures. ….
The combination of population shifts and the recent election results could make Obama’s re-election campaign more difficult. Each House seat represents an electoral vote in the presidential election process, giving more weight to states Obama probably will lose in 2012. The states he carried in 2008 are projected to lose, on balance, six electoral votes to states that his GOP challenger, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, won. That sets a higher bar for Obama before his re-election campaign even starts.”
Good to know. I am glad to see that the Sun Belt, Texas, and the like are attracting new migrants. Their ethos, marked by lower taxes and ease of business, should set a trend in other states. Their success is the result of state government competition and we should all be so proud to live in a country where such a thing can exist.
… Especially when it makes the job of Barack Obama’s campaign managers much, much more difficult.
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Comments
I guess the assumption here is that as red states absorb more and more blue state expatriates, these conservative states will remain conservative. Wrong. What it means is that as these states absorb more and more pro-union, pro-Democrat liberals, they will eventually turn into purple and then blue states. Ask New Hampshire, Florida, Missouri, Mississippi, South Carolina, and the rest.
It doesn't help that conservatives prefer to "punish" their states by cutting and running rather than standing their ground and fighting. How about a conservative invasion of California! That will teach them!
Very soon, we will have little choice but to give Texas back to Mexico.
I see your point, and indeed that has been a failing of the Free State Projects, but I think my point was that these constituencies were technically overrepresented in 08 and the census may recalibrate that. If more red states have a larger minority of blue, that is better than an increase in blue states who have a red minority. But, yes, purple may be an unsavory consequence.
Kathleen, the electoral benefit will likely be very short-lived. This just allows the Assistant Democrats to move further to the left in states where conservatives have been effective in keeping the pressure on these RINOs.
A couple of decades ago, West Germany had to absorb an entire country of communists. It was a validation for free-market capitalism and should was reported as a liberation of the oppressed East Germans. But the East Germans didn't exactly see it that way. They saw West Germany as rich and more able to afford the impoverished nanny state that East Germany had become. These East Germans brought with them the very attitudes, behaviors and inadequate skills that brought East Germany down.
It is likewise a mistake to assume that the expatriates from the blue states appreciate why their states are failing them and that they will now turn a new leaf to adopt new attitudes and behaviors. It's more like the infection is spreading and history tells us that this is not a good thing for conservatives.
pasadenaphil, sorry, but Texas blows your theory.
We have been absorbing those fleeing from the high tax states (California, Illinois, Michigan) for a decade now. So perhaps you should do a little research into our body politic. Texas now has a filibuster proof Republican majority in our state House (and two Texas Democrats jumped the DNC ship last week when their switched to the GOP). Texas is becoming redder, not bluer, even though we are inundated with yankees.
You see, when people find out they can keep more of what they earn (no state income tax) and the state doesn't hobble them when they want to open a business, they find out that Democrats really do not act in their best interest.
A few quick notes: The Texas GOP garnered a historical 38% of the Hispanic vote in November (some polls show 40%). Hispanic Republican Bill Flores defeated multiple term Democrat Chet Edwards in November.
Also take note: Haley Barbour of Mississippi keeps winning, although Mississippi is probably 40% African American.
Conservatism is contagious when people learn that they keep more of what they earn and the government is not breathing down their necks.
What you proffer is a Democratic pipe dream.
retireo5, sorry but I spend 2-3 weeks in Texas every year. You are in denial. California was pretty much the same about 15 years ago and that's where you guys are going. The GOP surrendered CA just like it's going to sell out Texas. Start electing conservative governors and senators and build a border fence and maybe your provincial arrogance might be warranted but for now, you are blowing smoke. I know Texas very well. Nearly half of my clients are in Texas. I just see it for what it is, not for what I wish it were.
Oh, my, pasadenaphil. So you spend two weeks a year in a state that I live in and you assume authority to tell me the political temperature of my state? Unmitigated arrogance on your part.
And no, Texas will never go the route California has. California simply elected Arnold because of who he was (RINO) and not what he brought from the GOP with him. California has always been deep blue, and now that it is suffering like a third world nation financially, the people there don't seem to have the God given commen sense to change that.
You seem to think that Texas will turn blue eventually. That is exactly what the Texas Dems said after the election in Nov., 2008. Now they are lamenting the death of their party in Texas.
To quote Texas Democratic Rep. Aaron Pena:
"We have a two-party system in Texas – and that is between conservative Republicans and moderate Republicans. The Democratic Party, or what remains of it, is on life support in Texas."
Now, I assume you think you know more that a state representive from Texas, but news flash, you don't.
So please, don't assume to tell me what my state is going to do politically. Two weeks in Paris doesn't make you French.