Reuters-Ipsos has released a poll showing Harry Reid up 48-44 over Sharron Angle among likely voters. This is 2% higher than the leads shown in very recent Rasmussen, PPP and Mason-Dixon polls.
The back up data is not linked in the Reuters-Ipsos release, so it is hard to judge the internals, particularly the statement in the press release that among registered voters, Reid is up 52-36. Such a big swing between registered voters and likely voters seems improbable to this layman, particularly given all the other polls in the past couple of weeks, none of which show such large gaps. I’d like to see what some of the professional poll analysts, like Jay Cost, have to say on this subject.
Here are some key findings, all of which come from the press release:
Here is how the pollster summed up the race:
“He (Reid) is well within her striking distance,” said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark. “I think this one will go down to the wire and it will absolutely depend on turnout.”
This assessment seems reasonable. Turnout will be everything.
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