The bowing out of Patrick Kennedy is a plus, on many different levels. But this positive should not be construed as a guarantee that the seat will leave the Democratic Party.
Rhode Island is one of the bluest states. The Democrats control the legislature and most towns and cities, as well as most of the statewide offices. While the Governor is Republican (in his second and last term), there is no high-profile Republican running.
There are a number of wannabe Democratic gubernatorial candidates who now will run for Congress, and who do not carry Patches’ high negatives.
Net-net, I think the chances of Republican John Loughlin (assuming he is the nominee) winning against these other contenders is somewhat less (again, depending who runs) than against Patches because an anti-incumbency victory requires, at least superficially, an incumbent.
Loughlin needs to run not only against Washington, but against the Democratic machine in Rhode Island. The state pretty much is bankrupt, with enormous deficits due to the high cost of state union pensions. There is a lot of anger on the ground, as witnessed by the negative voter reaction when Senator Sheldon Whitehouse did his Alan Grayson impression on the floor of the Senate.
People in Rhode Island are sick and tired of how the Democrats have ruined state finances, and a winning theme would be to tie the result of Democratic control of Congress with the results of Democratic control of Rhode Island.
That is not to say Loughlin will not win. I still think he has a better shot than anyone would have imagined a Republican could have in Rhode Island just a year ago.
I will following the race closely, since this is my home district, although I’ll admit that it’s going to be harder to get motivated with Patches gone. I may have to hang photos of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid on my computer monitor as a reminder why we need to take back Congress.
So Patches’ retirement is not all good news. But Patches no longer will be in the Congress, which is a good thing, regardless of what happens next.
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Related Posts:
Sheldon Whitehouse Becomes Alan Grayson
Rhode Island Is No. 1 Again — In Fraud
High Taxes And Union Pensions Are Killing Rhode Island. Duh!
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Comments
Your assessment is spot on. I think an incumbent Kennedy made Loughlin a stronger candidate. As I commented earlier, the Lynch brothers concern me due to their family's strong political connections in the district. Jon Brien, a moderate Democrat, may also throw his hat in the ring and could be an attractive alternative. While I'm thrilled Kennedy will not represent me in Congress next year, I'm hoping the anger Rhode Islanders are feeling will ensure another Democrat does not replace him.
Finally- an official end to Camelot 🙂
Being from southeastern Massachusetts I know that voter anger didn't stop at the state line. Rhode Islanders are just as disgusted, just as angered at government and the same sense of helplessness that we felt in my region is shared by those in Rhode Island.
Hey William, why don't you run for the office???? Just a thought…
Well, I hope if you have to hang those pictures that you will not start to throw things at your monitor. Seeing the pictures of Pelosi and Reid every day would be enough to throw up.
Amen to the end of Camelot – a movie we've been trapped in too long and that has had endless sequels. There was always a a sense of entitlement underneath a veneer of public service.
No family in American history – not the Roosevelt, not the Adams, and certainly not the Bush families – have paid a higher price in the service of the people than the Kennedys. And to be perfectly honest with you, I'm sick and tired of listening to them get kicked around by the clueless right wing.
It was announced yesterday that Ben Quayle, son of the former vice-president, will be running for congress. We here, at this glorious moment in the history of our great nation, are proud and privileged to bear witness to the birth of the Quayle family political dynasty.
I need a drink.
http://www.tomdegan.blogspot.com
Tom Degan
Goshen, NY
Dear Tom Degan,
I would say that the Kopechne family paid a pretty high price. I would also say that much of this so-called "price" they paid in the "service of the people" was self-inflicted. So when you use the word clueless, please, examine your mirror first.