There is a push to get PPP, Rasmussen, or some other organization to do a poll of the special election in Massachusetts. At first glance, this seemed like a good idea. But on second glance, this comment at National Review makes sense:
The last thing we really need here is a poll on the race. There hasn’t been any; a poll showing Brown very close would wake up the Democrat machine here. A poll showing him getting crushed could depress his momentum.
Any poll now would rest mostly on name recognition, and Coakley wins the name recognition contest today. So any poll taken now will show Coakley with a substantial lead which may not reflect the vote on January 19. Brown’s momentum is relatively new, and there are bound to be further gains in the coming two weeks.
Polling also would be particularly difficult for this special election, where turnout could mean everything. A lot of people who say they will vote may not do so, particularly for a candidate with tepid but wide support.
Brown may be better off hammering away, and focus on the only poll that matters.
This should make sense to Brown, who is a pretty good triathlete and was winner in his age group of the 2009 Baystate Championship Race Series (new fact you probably didn’t know).
The person who comes out of the water first isn’t the winner. The person who comes off the bike first isn’t the winner. The race is won on the run, as any triathlete knows. Often in the final miles.
Let triathlete Brown run his race.
Update: Some further analysis from Fred Bauer, who comes out on the side of polling.
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