Susan Collins Gaining Momentum in Maine Senate Race
“A majority of voters say they view Collins positively, which was not the case in our poll over the summer. She has made gains with independent voters, and is even winning 8 percent of Democrats.”
Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is famous for lagging in the polls only to outperform all expectations in the only poll that counts: Election Day. Although it’s almost unfathomable, she has trailed her Democratic opponent in the Maine Senate race, former state Sen. Troy Jackson, ever since his appointment as the new nominee in July. You will recall that Jackson was installed after the spectacular implosion of former Democratic nominee Graham Platner’s campaign.
Except for one poll in early July that gave Collins a slight edge, Jackson maintained a 2- to 5-point lead in every major poll until mid-September, when a Quantus Insights survey put Collins up by one point.
Three additional polls released late last week provided a mixed picture. A New York Times/Siena University survey conducted Sept. 15–22 showed Collins ahead by three points. A University of New Hampshire poll conducted Sept. 17–21 put Jackson up by four. An InsiderAdvantage poll found the race tied.
It’s worth noting that UNH is a left-leaning pollster. Its earlier polling of the Collins-Platner matchup consistently stood out from other public surveys. In earlier iterations, the university showed Platner leading Collins by 11 points and then by 9 points — results that proved to be outliers.
Perhaps the New York Times understands that too. Because, on Friday, the outlet cited the Maine Senate race as “one of three bright spots for the GOP” and portrayed the latest results as evidence of a “turnaround” for Collins.
According to the Times:
There has been a change in Maine.
When we last polled Maine’s Senate race, in June, the Republican incumbent Susan Collins was trailing Graham Platner, then the Democratic nominee, by 2 percentage points.
But things have been shaken up since then. Platner left the race after a former girlfriend accused him of rape, which he denied. Troy Jackson, a former logger and state lawmaker, took his place on the ballot. And now, our poll finds Collins with a slim 3-point lead.
A majority of voters say they view Collins positively, which was not the case in our poll over the summer. She has made gains with independent voters, and is even winning 8 percent of Democrats.
What shines through brightly in the poll is that voters believe Collins is delivering for Maine. Nearly 60 percent of voters — including 63 percent of independents and even 20 percent of Democrats — say they think Collins would do a better job bringing money and resources to the state than Jackson would.
While the four most recent polls yielded four very different outcomes, the race has changed. When Jackson first replaced Platner, the RealClearPolitics polling average showed him leading Collins by 5 points. As of Saturday, his lead had dwindled to 0.9 points. That’s a significant shift.
Remember, too, that the Times is not in the business of overstating any Republican’s chances if the evidence isn’t there.
Until July, Maine progressives were swept up in Graham Platner fever. Eager to elect the enigmatic newcomer, they seemed willing to overlook almost any past transgression. When Jackson replaced him, some of that zeal likely carried over. And frankly, while Susan Collins, the alternative, is a good and decent woman, it would be a stretch to say she ever inspired much voter excitement.
Nor is Jackson an ideal candidate. And he carries some baggage of his own.
When he first entered the race, the fifth-generation logger from Allagash declared he was “ready to flip Maine’s Senate seat and unseat Susan Collins once and for all.” He boasted that he’s “proven he can win — by 20 points — in a district carried by both Susan Collins and Donald Trump.”
That may be true, but just weeks earlier, Jackson had finished third in the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. What did that loss say about his statewide appeal?
He ran for Congress in 2014 and didn’t survive the Democratic primary.
Jackson is also known for his fiery demeanor and confrontational style, particularly during his tenure as Maine’s Senate president. His frequent clashes with fellow lawmakers were widely reported during his gubernatorial campaign.
According to The Hill:
He’s been accused of verbally berating Rachel Talbot Ross, who served as House Speaker, during his time as Senate President.
…
Jackson was also involved in an intense discussion with former state Sen. Heather Sanborn (D) over legislation geared towards reducing prescription drug costs. He apparently threw a water bottle at one point in the argument.
“He was an inch from her nose, screaming and hollering and haranguing her,” one of Jackson’s former legislative colleagues who was in the room told The Washington Post.
“It was pretty intense. I haven’t seen anything like that before or since,” the person added.
In August, Jackson made headlines after reports emerged that his longtime partner and the mother of his children is his second cousin.
The shift toward Collins in the polls is hardly surprising. With just over five weeks until Election Day, undecided voters are starting to choose.
I expect Collins to win reelection. Whether Republicans can prevail in the other Senate races that will determine control of the chamber is a far different matter.
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Comments
In NC, Cooper will win. The MSM has protected Cooper forever, who is basically an empty suit for the Democrats. However, that was expected. The Democrats need to win more races and not lose any existing Senate seats. That now looks unlikely.
The Democrats are going to win Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, and a few other close ones. They might even win South Carolina, Mississippi, and Kansas. They don’t need Maine.
She never lost momentum.
You apparently also missed the fact that Troy Jackson got banned from the ‘Mainers From Troy Jackson’ Facebook page because he was such an unbelievable prick to SUPPORTERS that the admin thought he was an imposter trying to make him look bad.
It’s novel only because he wasn’t Joe Biden.
Dems use polls to fundraise. It’s pretty obvious when these kinds of things happen. Try to sell a plausible takeover to their gullible voters then pull out with the cash that gets repurposed elsewhere.
“She has made gains with independent voters, and is even winning 8 percent of Democrats.”
Trump cut funds for illegals just in time to help her numbers!
I am of the opinion Republicans are no longer answering polls.
I’m not a Republican and won’t answer polls. I have no idea who is on the other end of the call.
Small samples sizes make the polls statistically insignificant. They are trying to sway the stupid voters that can’t think for them selves.
The fact is Sen Collins is ‘just right’ for Maine and its constituents. We don’t have to like it but we do need to accept that Maine ain’t Mississippi and isn’t gonna elect someone more ‘conservative’ than Collins. The d/prog sent up as their first choice a weirdo nepo baby with a Nazi SS Totenkopf tattoo then when they (surprise) figured out he might not win replaced him with another weirdo, a cousin luvin dude with long-standing anger management issues. The sad part is even after those stumbles the d/prog are still in the hunt to win the Maine Senate contest but that fact just reinforces the necessity of Susan Collins.
When Dems move to the middle so must we — it is a forcing move. But one would think that when Democrats run more and more entirely repulsive candidates, that would actually be an opportunity to counter with more and more conservative ones. Otherwise, exactly when does that opportunity occur, never?
Yes it does provide an opportunity but it also depends on make up of the electorate in the State/CD and the willingness of GoP voters to sack up and do it. Cornyn TX and Cassidy LA both got booted in their primary contests. Tillis NC didn’t bother to run b/c he knew he’d get curb stomped in a primary. All three of the nominees for those.Senate seats are more ‘conservative’ than their predecessor. Can’t run a candidate like Paxton in Maine unless you want to lose b/c their electorate is not gonna vote him into office. The political makeup of the electorate in each State/CD sets the outer limits on how ‘conservative’ a candidate could be and still win.
You might be surprised at how Conservative a person Maine might elect, if we ever got a decent one or even two to pick from, for starters, but we really never get much of a choice, now, do we? And between that and RCV, we do tend to get kind of screwed. I’ll even give you an example of what I mean…I have not even bothered to try and vote for Mayor in Portland, where I live in well over a decade, as there has not been one single Conservative candidate that has even tried to run, it has been nothing but Democrats and Progressives that have been running for that office, and that scares the hell right out of me, as the Mayor is the one that basically runs the city cops. Where the hell are all of the people that are Conservatives that would like to give that a shot? What hole did they all crawl into???
You realize Collins was unopposed in seeking the 2026 GoP nomination? You and every other conservative dissatisfied with Collins could have chosen to run yourself, recruit a slate of candidates or coalesce around a single alternative to challenge Collins for the nomination.
She had no real opponent in 2020 GoP primary either. There was a write in candidate that received less than 1.25% of GoP primary votes with Collins capturing the remaining nearly 99%.
Two election cycles and no meaningful opposition signals to me that the ‘conservative’ folks in Maine are speaking very loudly with their actions in declining to even run an opponent in the primary.
Seeing Collins edge ahead is the same feeling a parachutist feels when his chute finally opens but is on fire!
Collins will win easily
Another election where one votes for the GOP candidate only because the opponent is an asshat.
Pretty much, we keep her as she is the devil we know, and the other one is worse.
Simple Explanation – Maine voters like Susan Collins. They also want the Democrats to take over the Senate. With so many other States moving toward the Democrats, the Democrats no longer need Maine to take over, and Maine voters understand that. Maine will not decide Senate control, and Maine voters are no longer faced with a dilemma.