Are Pollsters Missing the ‘Silent Spencer Pratt Voters’?

Are Pollsters Missing the ‘Silent Spencer Pratt Voters’?

Americans across the political spectrum were stunned by Donald Trump’s upset victory in 2016. Pundits, pollsters, and political insiders had largely failed to account for a powerful bloc of supporters who either stayed quiet about their views or were underestimated entirely — the “silent Trump voter.”

Now, a decade later, some are wondering whether that same phenomenon might be happening in the Los Angeles mayoral race. Is there such a thing as the “silent Spencer Pratt voter”?

The growing excitement and online buzz surrounding the former reality-TV star’s campaign has sparked national headlines — seemingly daily — particularly in the weeks since he turned a candidate debate with Mayor Karen Bass and city council member Nithya Raman into must-see television.

While Pratt is running as an independent, he is a registered Republican. And in a city dominated by progressives, openly backing a conservative candidate, particularly one who is a firebrand, is frowned upon.

The latest ad from the Pratt campaign taps directly into this dynamic. After class, a Pilates instructor pulls aside a coworker and says, “Hey, I have to tell you something. Promise you won’t get mad?” Lowering her voice, she confesses: “I’m voting for Spencer Pratt.”

“Get mad?” the coworker replies. “I’m voting for Spencer Pratt too.”

A third colleague approaches and asks, “Did someone mention Spencer Pratt?”

The pair sheepishly deny it, only for her to reveal, “Oh, because I’m actually voting for him.” They exchange delighted smiles.

Then a fourth employee joins the conversation and admits she’s supporting Pratt too.

Retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel and onetime senior military aide to President Bill Clinton, Robert “Buzz” Patterson, shared the ad in an X post. He remarked that Pratt’s campaign “is on fire.” This ad, he wrote, “is so LA, it hits hard!”

The Spencer Pratt campaign is on fire. I don’t know who does all of these, it’s several people, but they’re profoundly impactful. This one is so LA it hits hard! pic.twitter.com/mURcjRqKAT

— Buzz Patterson (@BuzzPatterson) May 17, 2026

Another x user noted that the ad “exposes how the threat of social and career ostracization silences most ‘tolerant’ and affluent West LA liberals. They’d rather watch homeless camps, crime, failing schools, and decay swallow their city than risk the mob turning on them. That’s how the Left rules by fear while its politicians and elites pray the value of their million dollar homes doesn’t fall.”

This @spencerpratt ad exposes how the threat of social and career ostracization silences most "tolerant" and affluent West LA liberals. They'd rather watch homeless camps, crime, failing schools, and decay swallow their city than risk the mob turning on them. That's how the Left… https://t.co/0PIbf3meIi

— Eli Steele (@Hebro_Steele) May 17, 2026

The ad lays bare the absurdity of the Left’s cultural dominance. The evidence is impossible to ignore: decades of progressive governance have left the city of Los Angeles in shambles. Yet people who dare to acknowledge that reality feel compelled to whisper their views in private, fearful of being ostracized by their peers.

Pratt’s authenticity — and his fervent desire to reverse Los Angeles’s decline — appears to be resonating with voters. Unlike polished career politicians who rely on rehearsed talking points, he projects the image of someone genuinely alarmed by the city’s trajectory and determined to change it. What began as a long-shot candidacy is starting to look more serious. Pratt has successfully channeled the frustration many Angelenos feel with the status quo, particularly among voters who believe the city’s political establishment has ignored them. That frustration was likely intensified by widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s response to last year’s L.A. wildfires.

Whether this growing “awakening” among disaffected Angelenos will translate into victory for Pratt in the June 2 primary — or in the general election beyond — remains to be seen.

All three candidates will appear on the same ballot on June 2. If one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote outright — an unlikely scenario — that candidate will become mayor immediately. Otherwise, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on November 3.

Pratt’s chances of edging out Raman for the second runoff spot have improved since the fiery May 6 debate. If he manages to clear that bar, he will have another five months to target Bass over her dismal record as mayor.

An Emerson College poll released last week found that support for Pratt had surged 12 points to 22% since the pollster’s previous survey. Bass led the field with 30%, while Raman trailed at 19%.

The New York Post noted that the number of undecided voters “dropped from a whopping 51% in March to 16%” in Emerson’s latest poll.

Meanwhile, Raman has been trying mightily to portray Pratt as a “fascist.”

In a recent interview with progressive podcast host Brian Tyler Cohen, she said, “I think that Spencer Pratt is tapping into a lot of the frustrations that people have in Los Angeles by the way that things are going, and his Trumpian qualities are exactly why I think Angelenos should be taking this race seriously.

She added, “We need to grapple with and we need to offer it an honest response, a response that’s rooted in actually solving these problems. Otherwise, people will turn to fascism, to mini Trump, which is who I think Spencer Pratt really represents.”

She may think she sounds intelligent, but she’s simply resorting to an old, tired progressive tactic: dismissing and attempting to silence a right-wing opponent with a “fascist” label because she cannot argue with the substance of their positions.

While the “silent Spencer Pratt voter” remains more of a theory than a clearly established political force, this new ad did not come out of nowhere. I would imagine that the Pratt campaign’s internal polling or voter outreach uncovered at least some evidence that a segment of frustrated Angelenos may be privately supporting him, but are reluctant to do so publicly.

Whatever triggered the ad, it’s clearly another winner for the Pratt campaign.

Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.

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