Fears of an Upset in Tennessee Special House Election Mount as Polls Tighten
Even by special-election standards, the polls should not be this tight in such a reliably red state.
Special elections are notorious for yielding unexpected results because they tend to draw only the most politically engaged voters, a pattern that generally favors Democrats. All eyes are on Tuesday’s fight for the House seat vacated by Republican Rep. Mark Green in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who retired in July. The 7th District, which is “located in central and western Tennessee, stretches from Kentucky to Alabama, and includes parts of Nashville.”
The stakes are high as Republicans seek to preserve their already narrow 219–213 majority in the House. Even by special election standards, the polls should not be this tight in such a reliably red state, which explains why both parties have poured significant resources into this contest.
Fears of an upset in this race increased after an Emerson poll released on Wednesday showed liberal Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Beyn, the Democratic candidate, within 2 points of her Republican opponent, Mark Van Epps. President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points last November.
🚨 JUST IN: Tennessee's 7th Congressional District special election poll – Emerson
🔴Matt Van Epps 49.4% (+2.4)
🔵Aftyn Behn 47.0%Trump+22 district
Republicans MUST win this. Big issues if we don't. pic.twitter.com/nGbRIxUt0c
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 26, 2025
The Daily Wire reported:
Van Epps, 39, easily won the crowded GOP primary in October after an endorsement from President Trump. Van Epps is an Army helicopter pilot and combat veteran with years of experience in the Tennessee state government. He served as the deputy chief operating officer for the Tennessee Governor’s Office. He was then tapped by Republican Governor Bill Lee to run the Tennessee Department of General Services, where he “oversaw statewide procurement, facilities management, and essential services that touch every department in Tennessee government.”
During the Republican primary, Van Epps was criticized by his opponents for working to implement strict COVID lockdown measures in the early days of the pandemic and was nicknamed “Tennessee Fauci.” That line of attack on Van Epps was ineffective, and he won the GOP primary by more than 25 points.
Van Epps is a West Point graduate with an impressive resume. He describes himself as a “conservative warrior” who is focused on “advancing President Trump’s America First agenda.” Perhaps his greatest weakness is his lack of charisma.
The far-Left Behn, dubbed “the AOC of Tennessee” by David Hogg, while more charismatic than her rival, has been hampered by her past support for defunding the police and by a recently surfaced clip from a 2020 podcast in which she criticizes Nashville. Brutally.
Behn said, “I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the things that make Nashville. I hate it.”
🚨 Aftyn Behn– the Democrat nominee for the upcoming TN07 special election– says that she despises Nashville, the city that she's running to represent in Congress:
“I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the… pic.twitter.com/L9lmo1YkkJ
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 19, 2025
The Washington Free Beacon reported that in 2019, Behn called Tennessee voters “racist.” She wrote, “Let me be clear: Tennessee is a racist state. Racism is in the air we breathe.”
Democrat Aftyn Behn – running in the special election for Tennessee's 7th Congressional District – wrote in 2019 that Tennessee voters were "racist."
"Let me be clear: Tennessee is a racist state. Racism is in the air we breathe." pic.twitter.com/gDecTeInxI
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 19, 2025
When MSNOW’s Catherine Rampell pressed Beyn earlier this week about her past tweets in support of defunding the police, she worked hard to dodge the question: “Um, I… I’m not going to engage in… in… in… uh, cable news talking points. …”
Rampell asked, “So you don’t want to clarify whether you still believe that the police should be defunded?”
Behn replied, “Once again, I’m… I don’t remember these tweets, but I’m… what I’m saying is that um.
Rampell said she was not asking if Beyn remembered the tweets. She wanted to know her current position on the issue.
Once again, Behn refused to answer, saying, “I mean, I’m… I’m once again… I’m here to talk about my race, which is in uh literally nine days.”
NEW: Democrat Aftyn Behn turns into a bumbling mess after MS Now (formerly MSNBC) blindsided her with old tweets about defunding the police.
Behn, who said she hates Nashville, is running for Tennessee’s 7th congressional district.
Catherine Rampell: Do you still stand by those… pic.twitter.com/ScNnGvTA64
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 24, 2025
Last week, former Vice President Kamala Harris traveled to Nashville to campaign with Behn. The event marked Harris’s first appearance on the campaign trail since last November, according to Fox News.
The Daily Wire emphasized that Behn has not shied away from her liberal views:
Earlier this year, she followed and filmed ICE agents and Tennessee Highway Patrol officers as they made immigration arrests around Nashville. She has called Trump’s immigration operations “state-sponsored fear and violence.” Behn also voiced support for burning down police stations during the 2020 George Floyd riots. She recently refused to address the controversial social media post where she stated, “Good morning, especially to the 54% of Americans that believe burning down a police station is justified.”
After three Christian schoolchildren and three staff members were killed by a trans-identifying shooter in Nashville in 2023, Behn said she was “fearful” for “trans communities.”
While Van Epps should do well in the rural areas outside of Nashville, Behn is expected to be strong in the city itself. According to analysis from the Daily Wire, she will need to outperform expectations and “will need a high Democratic turnout for a chance to pull off an upset.”
On the other hand:
If Republicans show up in the counties surrounding Nashville and the more rural areas of the state as they have in recent House elections, Van Epps will likely cruise to victory. Tennessee’s 7th district includes areas such as part of wealthy Williamson County, which Trump won by more than 30 points in 2024, and rural Robertson County, which Trump won by 40 points.
In recent years, many Californians have moved to Tennessee — especially to Nashville — shifting the electorate slightly to the left. In a normal election year, it likely wouldn’t matter.
Political analysis website The Cook Political Report noted that two weeks ago, they shifted their rating of this race from “solid” to “likely” Republican, because of the “slim possibility” that Behn “could pull off an upset due to anemic Republican turnout.”
Republicans must turn out in force on Tuesday. If they are complacent, as voters often are in special elections, we might see the upset that Democrats, who are far more motivated, are hoping for.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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Comments
I hate to say it, but we all know it’s true: Republicans, sSnatching defeat away from the jaws of victory. I hope turn out swings towards the conservative candidate, but it seems there is always a doubt
On the Tuesday after a major travel holiday? That would literally take a miracle.
All those people still stuck in snow storms or airports, or who caught norovirus from their relatives, will not be voting.
It does seem to be a race of who TN hates most. The guy that endorsed lockdowns and worked to put TN under it’s rules or the chic that hates the people and state she wants to represent in Congress.
Lots of residents of Nashville hate the tourist stuff too. She isn’t the only one.
My understanding is Van Epps was the Governor’s chief of staff. He may have implemented the Governor’s orders, but the fault for lockdowns is with the Governor.
It’s not just Nashville she hates. “Let me be clear: Tennessee is a racist state. Racism is in the air we breathe.” Democrats are offensive nuts, but they are motivated. I hope TN has shorn up its election integrity.
2.4% is easy for the Dems to cheat
Gerrymandered districts?
Gerrymandering can only help you so much. A large group of angry voters can easily overcome gerrymandering, especially when the other side doesn’t care as much.
It’s not that Behn is a mentally unhinged lunatic (xe is), its that a large segment of the political opposition is willing to vote for a unhinged lunatic.
Behn is the reincarnation of … “Several women played significant roles as accusers during the Salem Witch Trials. Their testimonies were crucial in the prosecution of those accused of witchcraft.”
For wave years favoring your party, and especially special elections held on the Tuesday after a major travel holiday, running radicals is usually a good strategy. Your most committed partisans will be extra eager to vote early, and election day drop-off will trap the other side with a loss.
It seems strange that people would elect someone to represent them in Congress that openly hates them and calls them racists but self loathing AWFL’s are everywhere.
“She doesn’t hate me. She hates those OTHER white people.”
“I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the things that make Nashville. I hate it.… Let me be clear: Tennessee is a racist state. Racism is in the air we breathe.”
This is an even more winning message than, “Vote for me — I’m a Communist jihadi!” She is sure to be victorious.
Somebody please find Yuval Noah Harari’s off switch.
Science is the only answer to the woman problem. Biotech must make The Stepford Wives a reality for our survival.
It’s insane but Tennessee women are turning out to
Vote for this woman
It’s all
Anti Trump
Vote but Republicans are so
Stupid they don’t show up to
Vote and it will affect us all
Do
Democrats never retire?
https://redstate.com/beccalower/2025/11/29/new-texas-rep-troy-nehls-announces-hes-retiring-from-congress-n2196658
Of course they do. As of now, 14 representatives have announced that they’re retiring from public office at the next election: 9 Democrats and 5 Republicans.
Jodey Arrington (R)
Don Bacon (R)
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)
Danny K. Davis (D)
Dwight Evans (D)
Jesus Garcia (D)
Jared Golden (D)
Morgan Luttrell (R)
Michael McCaul (R)
Jerrold Nadler (D)
Troy Nehls (R)
Nancy Pelosi (D)
Jan Schakowsky (D)
Nydia Velazquez (D)
Most of the retiring (D)’s are leaving before they go into the grave. D’s rarely quit mid-term unless they are going into higher office or actually enter the grave.
Mid-term?! Who is talking about mid-term?! We are talking about Nehls, who like the rest of these 14 is retiring on Jan-3-2027.
It’s the Carswell Effect: “Dead people deserve representation, too!”
Well, be thankful for small favors. Beyn has not called for her constituents to be murdered. Yet.
Women voters is the problem. Everything is empathy, nothing is stability or structure.
There’s a real potential for a loss here.
1. Its an open seat and that negates the factor of incumbent advantage. FWIW the incumbent wins in excess of 95%
2. It’s a special election which means the better organized campaign with focus on turn out has an advantage… which benefits the d/prog who will enjoy teacher unions, other public sector unions and private sector union support.
3. The GoP establishment rammed through a very much establishment candidate to be the nominee. He’s a perfect example of cookie cutter GoP candidates from late ’90s early ’00s. IOW an example of pre Trump and even pre Tea Party GoP candidates. He’s boring.
4. He was a Covid Karen overseeing implementation of Covid Cray Cray restrictions upon Constitutional liberties. That stain isn’t gonna wash off or be ignored. There’s a solid group of folks on the center/right who will refuse to vote for Covid Karens and if the GoP establishment insists on running Covid Karens they find their candidate doesn’t attract those votes. The establishment knows this but took a gamble that a solid Trump CD would conceal it and/or they could win without the ‘anti Covid Karen’ bloc, we’ll find out if the establishment gamble pays off.
After what we just witnessed in NJ, VA, and NYC, there is every reason to believe the people of TN will vote for this deranged person. There own survival apparently is not number one on their list of things to do. It has happened in OR, WA, and CA over and over again. Those states are becoming unlivable and they are losing population.
Don’t forget there are 4 independent candidates running for this seat. They’ll surely strip votes from Van Epps and not the Marxist.
Clay Travis is in the 7th Congressional District. He says that many Marxists are coming out to vote to make him suffer with her as his Rep…
He must not have many listeners in his own district if she is leading in the early vote by 14 points. How is that true with Clay Travis’ big megaphone for turning out voters? Every bit of information makes this special election look worse and worse.
Aftyn Behn is heavily favored to win this one. In fact, it is almost a sure thing. The poll said the early vote was in her favor by 14 points, while the purported election day voters said they will vote for him by 2 pts, with 5% unsure or voting for a 3rd party rando. That doesn’t look good. Election day is the Tuesday after a major travel holiday, and there will be a major drop-off in the election day vote. Drop-off of 5 pts is usual for a normal election, and lots of people will still be stuck in travel or sick from whatever they caught from relatives on Election Day, and won’t be voting. With these conditions, a drop off of 10-15% on Tuesday should be expected.
It’s only close because a Republican president raised taxes on hard working Americans. Spin it however you want, but the voters in November 2024 wanted to stop prices increases, instead Republicans made it worse.
What Federal tax was increased by the Trump Admin? Price point changes are largely a market function. Surely you wouldn’t argue that a necessary policy change such as DoT suspending CDL issued to unqualified foreign drivers is a ‘tax increase’ b/c the short term impact reduces supply of available CDL drivers and temporarily increases shipping costs and some % of the increased cost is passed to consumers? Or longer term if wages of US Citizen CDL drivers increases as a result and those costs are passed along?
Taxes on imports have vastly increased, which are paid by Americans. It’s destroying our economy. We need to lower taxes, especially on imports.
Taxes and tariffs are not equivalent, which is why I asked you to name which specific Tax increased and why you chose.in bad faith to try and conflate them.
It is true that they both impact economic incentives and by increasing tariffs well get not only higher domestic investment leading to more domestic manufacturing and the jobs that come.with them but also received better terms for our exports making them more competitive, leading to higher sales and more jobs producing those exports.
What we need to do is reshore US manufacturing and create economic policies that benefit the broad middle-class; the 70% in between the top 15% and bottom 15%. Prioritize Main St not Wall St bc the broad middle-class has been hammered for decades. FWIW the top 15% owns 92% of all assets to include ‘stock market investment’.
The pretend Patrick Henry is fine with manufacturing being out sourced to China.
Liberals are big on manufacturing as long as it’s “Not In My Back Yard.”
It’s easier to make the people slaves if everything they receive is through the hands of the government. Easier to control that way.
After all, the NIMBY’s and Liberals were fine when they were able to prevent people from getting SNAP (eligibility notwithstanding).
TBH I’m getting more of a faux libertarian vibe than liberal/lefty vibe from his argument. Plenty of ‘establishment’ (faux) libertarians who don’t really care about civil liberties and individual rights but pretend to be libertarian only when corporate taxes, business regulation, limiting punitive damages and capital gains are being discussed. Those are the folks who disappeared in Covid Mania.
What the hell are you talking about? Tariffs are taxes. There is not the slightest question about that. That is what they are. By definition.
Taxes and tariffs are not the same thing. The tariff is at least in part voluntary in that it relies on consumer decision not to forego the particular product subject to the tariff or to substitute for another similar product with a lesser or no tariff.
The closest tax analogue to a tariff is a sales tax which is unavoidable by substitution b./c it applies across the spectrum of any possible substitute good where a tariff is avoidable if one substitutes.
Do they both create ‘friction’ in transactions? Add costs to the exchange? Sure. So do regulations. So would a mafia demand for ‘protection’. So does liability insurance.
Just because a tariff and a tax when in place have similar economic impacts doesn’t make them equivalent. The introduction of ANY impediment, condition or costs on the production, transportation or sale from any entity external to the transaction imposes economic costs but that doesn’t transform them into a tax.
Dems in local government must have figured how to corrupt the voting process, test case for stealing midterms
It isn’t really corrupt, but good strategy. If Nashville Dems made sure there were lots of convenient early voting places open, and the rural counties have only one early vote spot at the county government center, whose fault is that?