Meanwhile, low US heating oil stockpiles may cause a winter of discontent.
As we recover from the time change this week and begin making plans for Thanksgiving, climate “experts” are predicting that this year’s winter will be frigid — thanks to the El Niño weather pattern.
El Niño – which translates to ‘little boy’ in Spanish – is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator.
The shift has a big impact on weather patterns around the globe – and this year’s El Niño is expected to be the strongest since 2015 – which saw the warmest U.S. winter on record.
The new maps show that – during strong El Niño seasons – the northern U.S. is usually drier, while the southern U.S. typically is wetter and snowier.
…During stronger El Niño winters, there is more snow than average in the Midwest area of the U.S. and western states like Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah.
New England confronts far less snow than normal during intense El Niño seasons – New York, Vermont and parts of Maine are likely to see far less snowfall this winter than the average from 1991-2020.
Of course, the “experts” will use “climate change” as an excuse, if these projections prove to be wrong.
“El Niño nudges the odds in favor of certain climate outcomes, but never ensures them,” writes [Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center].
There’s also the impact of climate change, which has meant less snowy winters over time for much of the U.S. On the other hand, a freak snowstorm can always defy the odds, even during an El Niño year.
In its most recent outlook, the Climate Prediction Center said there is a 75% to 85% chance that we see a “strong” El Niño this winter. There’s a 30% chance it ends up being one of the strongest ever recorded.
“A 45% chance of above normal precipitation for December through February,” said David Spector, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hanford.
Local experts say parts of Central California have been left in a more vulnerable position due to the torrential rains and historic snowpack of 243% above the average state level.
“Central California can expect similar or worse impacts compared to last winter even if less rain or snow falls than last year,” added Spector.
One last scientific point: Water Vapor is, itself, a greenhouse gas.
Latest information for El Niño is that it now has moved into a strong category. This means that we have a powerful duel effect of higher than average Water Vapour in the atmosphere, from last year’s Underwater Volcanic Eruption in Tonga and the Strong El Niño. WV is the main GHG. pic.twitter.com/y5RNziMt9p
— Climate Realist (@ClimateRealists) November 6, 2023
And some good news is that efforts to get information about real climate science are beginning to work.
Looks like Michael Mann's communication strategy isn't working so well. A recent series of Associated Press and U. Chicago polls shows only a minority of Americans believe recent warming is mostly caused by humanshttps://t.co/SYvzSESBco
— Judith Curry (@curryja) November 6, 2023
As we prepare for a significant El Niño weather pattern, it would be comforting for our nation to have reliable energy supplies for the upcoming freeze. Sadly, projections show that this will not likely be the case.
Americans could face a sticker shock with their heating bills this winter, especially if it is a chilly one, due to unusually low U.S. stockpiles of distillate fuels following OPEC+ crude supply cuts and higher demand from Europe, analysts said.
Distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, were by late August about 15% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the Energy Information Administration.
At below 118 million barrels, stocks represented around 31 days of supply.
“We are living barrel to barrel and there is just no room for errors in the system,” Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. “If we get a cold winter, there are going to be significant price shocks.”
According to my assessment, we are in for a winter of severe economic discontent.DONATE
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