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Georgia Senate Runoff Too Close to Predict

Georgia Senate Runoff Too Close to Predict

“More than 1.85 million Georgians have voted early, according to the office of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, breaking two single-day records in about a week.”

The Georgia Senate runoff election is on Tuesday and at this point, it’s difficult to see which way this is going to go. One thing that is known for sure is that there is a lot of voting going on already.

NBC News reports:

Georgia Senate runoff smashes early voting records — and attracts new voters

Georgia has set new records for early voting again as the two Senate candidates blitz the state ahead of Tuesday’s runoff election. And the contest is drawing new voters, too.

More than 1.85 million Georgians have voted early, according to the office of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, breaking two single-day records in about a week.

Among those who have already turned out, 56% were women and 44% men. White voters made up 55% of early voters, 32% were Black, and Latinos and Asian Americans each accounted for less than 2% of the total.

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is facing Republican former football star Herschel Walker for a six-year term after neither reached the 50% needed to win on the first ballot in the Nov. 8 general election. With the balance of power in the Senate at stake, both candidates have been barnstorming the state to mobilize their voters in the final three days ahead of the crucial election.

I’m hesitant to give too much credence to polls after what just happened in the midterms, so take this with a grain of salt.

According to CNN, Warnock has a slight lead:

CNN Poll: Warnock holds a narrow edge over Walker in final undecided Senate contest

In the final undecided Senate contest of 2022, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Herschel Walker among those likely to vote in a runoff election Tuesday, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

The survey shows that Walker faces widespread questions about his honesty and suffers from a negative favorability rating, while nearly half of those who back him say their vote is more about opposition to Warnock than support for Walker. Voters’ modestly more positive views of Warnock and a firmly committed base of supporters appear to boost the incumbent in the new poll.

Overall, 52% of likely voters say they plan to support Warnock in Tuesday’s runoff and 48% pick Walker. Partisans on both sides are deeply entrenched, with nearly all Democrats (99%) behind Warnock and 95% of Republicans backing Walker. Independents break in Warnock’s favor, 61% to 36%, but make up a relatively small slice of likely voters, 17%, compared with 24% in a CNN exit poll of voters in the first round of this contest last month.

One thing we know for sure is that the mainstream media’s coverage is completely typical. The majority of coverage of Walker has been negative and anything controversial about Warnock is ignored.

Rich Noyes reports at NewsBusters:

Georgia Run-Off: Walker 88% Negative News, 71% POSITIVE for Warnock

In an election year where the liberal media pounded Republicans with bad press while rewarding Democrats with a favorable news agenda, no race has seen more manipulative national media coverage than the Georgia Senate race between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker…

All Scrutiny on Walker: The networks spent the lion’s share of their airtime focusing on Walker, while Warnock received a free ride. Our analysts looked at all 87 minutes of evening news coverage of the Georgia Senate race from September 1 through November 29. About three-fourths of this coverage (64 minutes, 42 seconds) was spent discussing Walker, vs. 21 minutes, 12 seconds talking about Warnock — a three-to-one disparity. [The remaining minutes of airtime focused on voters or the election process without referencing the candidates.]…

No Airtime for Warnock’s Personal Controversies: The massive disparity we found in tone is directly due to the lopsided agenda of these news stories. These networks found it worthwhile to delve into multiple accusations against Herschel Walker, while showing zero interest in allegations against his Democratic competitor.

We’ll know the outcome in a few days. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

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Comments

Just like 2020 the fix I’d already in. It’s going to be ‘close’ but Warnock is going to ‘win’,, regardless of how many votes Walker gets.

And if Walker is ahead after election day then they’ll just keep counting until Warnock takes a tiny lead then immediately call the race for Warnock.

Nobody should be surprised.

    Paula in reply to Olinser. | December 4, 2022 at 12:59 pm

    “It’s going to be ‘close’ but Warnock is going to ‘win’, regardless of how many votes Walker gets.”

    Win/Win.

    Walker wins in a fair race. Warnock wins by cheating.

    What IS surprising is the acceptance half the nations seems to have that it’s normal to have corrupt freaks like Warnock in high office.

    henrybowman in reply to Olinser. | December 4, 2022 at 7:01 pm

    Yes. Just stop all the stupid Super Bowl hype. This isn’t pro football, it’s Saturday afternoon wrestling. The only people who think there is a real contest here are temporarily or permanently inebriated.

Amazing that’s Warnock 3rd too close to call runoff. Where did I put my I doubt it face.

Otto Kringelein | December 4, 2022 at 12:43 pm

We’ll know the outcome in a few days. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

==========

We already know how this is going to work out. Walker will be in the lead the ballot count right up until the mysterious late night ballot dump of mail in ballots (oh look, we “found” these mail in ballots in USPS boxes at the post office that weren’t delivered to the election office. 😉) that will put Warnock over the top and he will be declared the winner.

    Might even be another plumbing issue? Who knows? Although Warnock’s support for unlimited abortion on demand up to birth will probably win him the women’s vote. I guess Walker could come out in favor of infanticide too but I’m not sure he can advocate in favor of infanticide as convincingly as a democrat. But I’m sure democrats have suitcases on standby just in case.

This is going to be depressingly predictable.

Why cover this? We know that Warnoke wins. The fix is in. It is settled.

With 61% of Independents for Warnock, how is this even close?

It sounds like some Americans don’t have faith in our elections anymore.

    First comment Olinser nailed it: if Walker cannot win outside the margin of democrat cheating – as early results indicate – then the fix is in and it’s very easy to predict; Warlock will win.

    But the true problem isn’t a rigged system. It’s a wicked electorate which demands a vile, venal marxist meat puppet who advocates baby murder as their senator.

    Gooder n harder, folks.

      randian in reply to LB1901. | December 4, 2022 at 7:59 pm

      The whole point of the propaganda surrounding time to count votes is that there is no such thing as the “Democrat margin of cheating”, they can find as many votes as required to win no matter how many votes the Republican gets (assuming all Republican votes are actually counted rather than get rejected or just summarily thrown in the trash).

    Dimsdale in reply to r2468. | December 4, 2022 at 2:05 pm

    And ridiculously, the Dems claim any scrutiny or verification of the vote “will lower American’s faith in the voting process.”

    The rest of the world is laughing. Too bad our vaunted media won’t reveal that.

    Maybe Musk needs to buy some newspapers….

      Concise in reply to Dimsdale. | December 4, 2022 at 2:16 pm

      It will be amusing at any rate to read about the State Dep’t calling into question a corrupt foreign election that employs the same methods as this country. Not much of a consolation since democrats lack shame or self-awareness. I think it may be a genetic defect of the party faithful.

    henrybowman in reply to r2468. | December 4, 2022 at 7:02 pm

    “Are you rrrrrrready to FRRRRRRRRRANCHISE???”

Warnock wins.

It’s easier to cheat the second time around because you know the numbers from the first time. Atlanta will push Warnock over the top with the shenanigans.

    Concise in reply to TheOldZombie. | December 4, 2022 at 2:12 pm

    Probably. Which always confuses me. Are there no republican attorneys? Time and again democrats do the same thing and republicans just stand there and take the punch.

      MarkS in reply to Concise. | December 4, 2022 at 3:07 pm

      Kemp was in on screwing Trump in 2020, thus he got to win in ’22

      Subotai Bahadur in reply to Concise. | December 4, 2022 at 6:10 pm

      There ARE Republican attorneys. However their loyalties [such as an attorney can have] is to the GOPe and not country and Constitution. Thus no action against Democrat vote fraud.

      Subotai Bahadur

        There are Republican attorneys, but every time they stick their heads up, they get hit with bar association complaints and end up having to spend all their time trying not to get disbarred.

      Otto Kringelein in reply to Concise. | December 5, 2022 at 8:57 am

      The republican attorneys simply don’t count. They can file all the protests they wish. They can file all the lawsuits they feel are necessary. Then a judge will simply dismiss the protests and lawsuits for “lack of jurisdiction” or claim “laches” and that will be the end of it. The court system is no longer an impartial arbiter of the law and lean left.

Warnock wins. In a close election, he will pull ahead with the post-election votes, which tend to favor Democrats.

Michael Johnson | December 4, 2022 at 1:49 pm

I agree with the depressing predictions above, but an interesting change has taken place in polling. The polling predictions are more accurate now. The built in Democrat bias in polls is now closely matched by the harvested ballots.

    The built in Democrat bias in polls is now closely matched by the harvested ballots.

    Yes, the fraud is more sophisticated now. That’s why I hated D’Souza making public his data about phones and drop boxes. All that did was tell the Democrats how they screwed up and how to fix it for next time.

    I’m not sure about polling in GA, but in AZ the main Republican candidates were favored to win in the polls by about a 10% margin. They all lost by a small margin despite Republican turnout being higher than previous elections and Democrat turnout being lower. Election day in-person votes typically favor R’s by something close to 70/30%. This year is was more like 55/45%. Very strange. Maybe the “Box #3 strategy” worked for the Dems, where over 30% of polling places had non-functional machines and voters were told to drop their ballot in some box to be taken downtown and counted later.

I know I have commented on democrat electoral fraud/fixes but I still can’t understand the women voter’s embrace of unlimited abortion on demand up to birth. There used to be a national consensus against the particularly vile trimester abortion and Ralph Northam was denounced for his infanticide comments, Did he make a mistake? Should he have embraced infanticide to win the women’s vote?

    Let me try to explain: Americans as a whole, women included, do not want a total abortion ban. The GOP is completely stupid for trying to push that not only because it’s wildly unpopular but because when faced with the ‘choice’ of no abortions ever including for rape, incest, and the life of the mother, Americans (men, too) recoil. So yeah, they go for abortion on demand up until the moment of birth over no abortions, ever, under any circumstances.

    Abortion should be (and thanks to Dobbs is) a state issue, but both parties are trying to make it a national issue. It’s not, not any longer. And some states may get away with complete bans, but more will go with something more acceptable to the mainstream (i.e. 15 weeks, exceptions for rape/incest/life of the mother).

    So, no, women do not support abortion until the moment of birth . . . until they are faced with a deal-breaking alternative: no abortions at all, under any circumstances. It’s really not hard to understand, but emotions are so sharp over abortion that it’s easy to just call everyone an infanticidal maniac than try to find a good balance.

      Ok, but the fact is the majority of women voters came out in favor of unlimited abortion on demand up to birth in MI, MINN, CA (and maybe elsewhere). Essentially you’re saying they agreed to support infanticide as long as abortion in general was available. Rather irresponsible use of the franchise in my opinion. This is the moral failing of those legalizing trimester abortions (and who knows what else), not the republican party,

        Well, no, and this is crazy to those of us who follow politics, but the vast majority of people pay no attention at all, and only about a third of all Americans (men and women) even vote in presidential elections (not counting special, midterm, etc. elections that see even lower turnout).

        I get you want to blame women, possibly disenfranchise us, but that’s just a distraction. Women having the right to vote is not the problem here, but I do understand the very human tendency to attack the lowest hanging fruit instead of attempting to tackle larger, more pressing issues.

        Women do not vote in a bloc, period, any more than the working class or Latinos/Hispanics do. Many of us are pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, and pro-Constitutional principles. Women are not your problem (well, they may be in your actual life, but in politics, we are not).

        When it comes to abortion, however, there is no room for error not because “women” love infanticide but because they grew up with Roe, horror stories about back alley abortions, and the endlessly repeated mantra about “my body, my choice.” The left, in other words, is your enemy, not more than half the U.S. population.

          I believe I have pointed out, quite accurately based on available polling data, the trend of how the majority of women voted in the last election. The reality is that that particular voting bloc overwhelming supported measures amounting to infanticide. I guess its open to argument whether supporting such measures to retain the availability of abortion in general is moral. I think it isn’t. And your response is to label me crazy and insinuate I have some issues against with women. If it makes you feel any better, I’ll add that I think anyone, male or female that would support these abortion policies has a questionably moral compass. Feel free to insult me for that. I would take it as a compliment.

          I think you misunderstood my comment. I didn’t call you crazy, I said it SEEMS crazy to us that most people don’t follow politics (they don’t). Read my comment again.

          You clearly stated that it’s a “Rather irresponsible use of the franchise in my opinion.” So yes, I read this as your having a problem with women voting.

          And again, I am not saying these people who support limits on abortion over actually ending it are right; I am merely stating the facts. You can choose to live in a world that ignores how Americans feel about issues like abortion, and that is fine, but it changes nothing about how Americans feel about abortion.

          I have not insulted you, so this crazy victim stance you are now adopting is confounding (–that, by the way, was an actual and intended insult. I have zero patience for “victim” ramblings.).

          If “bloc” offends you, call the majority of women who supported infanticide anything you want. They choose to support it. So sorry but they made a morally reprehensible choice. And by the way, that’s a reference to the particular women comprising this group of voters, dare I say it, bloc. I thought it went without saying that this isn’t all women everywhere but I guess it doesn’t. Lot of misunderstanding going around apparently.

          What? This makes no sense as a response to my comment. It’s like you’re stuck in “repeat the mantra” mode and can’t adapt to a new idea. So weird. But I think this signals we’re done here.

          Yeah, I make no sense. Why would I mention “bloc”? It’s almost like someone indignantly wrote “Women do not vote in a bloc, period,…” And how could I have possibly thought you continue to misapprehend my comments as applying to all women as a gender as opposed to those who chose to vote for infanticide? i mean, it’s not like you wrote “I get you want to blame women, possibly disenfranchise us” (as an aside, “disenfranchise” a little over the top). We can skip over the other insults. I think though, you’re really upset because I’m right.

          Um, you do know your previous comments are visible, right? As are my responses?

          This revisionist history of yours is . . . laughable. And kind of sad.

          I now understand what’s meant by gaslighting. Thanks.

      Actually, a great many WOMEN have voted for abortion past birth

      So we have that

      We are a Country without God

        Um, I think I need a link to your source on American women voting on post-birth abortion (i.e. actual murder). I know there has never been such a bill passed by any state’s legislative body, much less put to voters, so I have no idea at all what you are talking about. Clarify, please.

        As to our being a country without God, I am very worried about this and have been for decades.

        As John Adams rightfully stated: “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious People. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.”

        As we’ve moved away from God, we’ve become more craven, less tolerant, and more venal. Our Republic cannot stand because it was not built to stand against communism run amok and the requisite socio-cultural destruction of religion.

      And abortion is murder , it is what it is, doesn’t matter you murder a 15 week old or a 39+ week old

      Do I want to be the one to tell a 13 y/o that she has to have her fathers baby

      No, I believe it’s between God and the woman. 13 isn’t a woman but you get my jest.

      To say it’s more palatable to kill a 15 week old vs a 39 week old is ridiculous

        I am merely stating where Americans are on abortion, gonzo. I, personally, oppose all abortions, even in cases of rape, incest, though I am kind of iffy on the life of the mother and do think it’s up to her at that point. But it doesn’t matter what I think personally because I can’t just wave my tinfoil wand and change reality to suit my agenda. Neither can you, by the way.

        What I find intriguing is that you don’t seem to understand how our government works, either at the federal or state level. We all have our own opinions and viewpoints, but we cannot impose them on others, not in our Constitutional Republic. Tilting at windmills is a fruitless exercise.

      Mauiobserver in reply to Fuzzy Slippers. | December 4, 2022 at 4:19 pm

      I don’t recall the GOP advocating for a national ban on abortion though Lindsey did propose a 15 week bill.

      Pretty sure that Georgia law or GOP proposals are similar.

      However facts don’t matter. I know liberal friends who swear that a major GOP goal is to abolish social security.

        Two words: Blake Masters.

        And there were more in the midterms (they all got trounced). Easy to look up, if you want to.

          Mauiobserver in reply to Fuzzy Slippers. | December 4, 2022 at 5:35 pm

          Just double checked on Blake. The attack ad against him uses a segment from a YouTube interview where he said he is unapologetically prolife.

          His statements on a Federal role in his campaign pitch is limiting abortions in the 3rd trimester.

          I think it is a state not federal issue but don’t believe that limiting abortions would n the 3d trimester is particularly radical.

          I think most states will end up with laws that include late term bans though Democrats will fight any limits as they have consistently done over the years.

          I believe that the official democratic position is abortion up to and including birth subject only to the decision of the mother and doctor

          Links please. Masters was very vocal about ending ALL abortions, claiming them “demonic.” He’s not wrong, but anyone with that view will not be elected. I’m pro-life, so don’t shoot the messenger here.

          The_Mew_Cat in reply to Fuzzy Slippers. | December 5, 2022 at 9:36 am

          And it seems that most were trounced harder in federal elections than state ones. People may be willing to go through the minor inconvenience of driving over a state line or two to get abortions, but having to go to a foreign country and risk federal prosecution on return is too much for most voters.

        CommoChief in reply to Mauiobserver. | December 4, 2022 at 5:02 pm

        Kevin McCarthy came out and said a r majority in the HoR would seek a 15 week ban. Lindsey Graham backed that for the Senate.

        IMO, that spooked the voters in States with less restrictive abortion laws while simultaneously PO the voters in States with near bans on abortion. Then there were the five States with abortion actually on the ballot in some form.

        The single issue abortion voters both for and against are very passionate. They pay attention and they vote. They are as passionate re abortion as single issue 2A voters are about firearm rights issues.

        We should leave abortion policy to each State to decide. Embrace Federalism. Let Massachusetts be Massachusetts while also letting Mississippi be Mississippi. Keep as many issues out of the hands of Congress and the Federal government as possible. The Dobbs decision does that.

          Mauiobserver in reply to CommoChief. | December 4, 2022 at 6:44 pm

          Did a simple Google search for a local source,. As I recall it appeared to be an Arizona Tv station. They listed both the YouTube original story and the official campaign web site.

          If you are interested in the facts it is a simple check.

          However I don’t think facts matter. The left puts out their propaganda and the mainstream media pounds it home.

          I have a friend who is a liberal and seems otherwise smart in fact his wife is an md. I avoid political discussions on Maui in general but for some reason had a very brief conversation with him after he claimed it is common knowledge that a key GOP objective is to end social security.

          I have never met Blake and have only seen a little of his speech s and debate performances. He comes across as smart and reasonable

          I see Peter Thiel several times a year. Have never had a real conversation with him but I have with his right hand guy who seems very mainstream conservative and not in the least radical. I strongly suspect Blake and Peter share similar views.

      henrybowman in reply to Fuzzy Slippers. | December 4, 2022 at 7:07 pm

      “The GOP is completely stupid for trying to push that”
      The only major figure I’ve heard pushing that is Lindsey Quisling Graham.

      The GOP isn’t pushing that, that is a Democrat slur. The GOP is pushing for abortion rules to be a state matter rather than Federal, that’s hardly the same thing as an abortion ban.

    The_Mew_Cat in reply to Concise. | December 5, 2022 at 9:30 am

    Because there is no middle ground. Either you are for abortion or you are against it. It is a binary choice. The real choice is unlimited abortion or no abortion.

It’s not too close to predict. Tie goes to the democrat since they only need to produce enough harvested ballots to pull it off. Showing up on election day is now an antiquated way to win elections.

    gonzotx in reply to technerd. | December 4, 2022 at 3:07 pm

    But the o ly way to have an election that is probably true

    Mauiobserver in reply to technerd. | December 4, 2022 at 4:22 pm

    True the Dems don’t even need to campaign as they are all about ballots harvested or otherwise manufactured where the GOP is still focused on the increasingly irrelevant component called voters.

It’s what Eric golder has been doing ever since he “stepped down” form the AG

First in California with the you got a divers lic you got a ballot and all over the Country.
It’s not about votes, for that you need people, it’s about ballots, for that you just need zip codes

Eric Holder

Subotai Bahadur | December 4, 2022 at 11:42 pm

A quick scan of this thread seems to reveal a realistic lack of faith in the electoral system.

Subotai Bahadur

Wife was just down there. She said if TV ads are any indication, Warnock is outspending Walker by a huge margin

Warnock will win. The early vote is slightly more Democratic (based on demographic groups voting) than was the general election, and in that contest Warnock got about 1% more than Walker.

    texannie in reply to The_Mew_Cat. | December 5, 2022 at 11:56 am

    We no longer have elections. We have a charade to fool the rubes into thinking they have a choice. The Democrats finally have found a way to a permanent control, one party country. And they don’t allow any discussion or denial after these “elections.” You can be fired, charged, or at least censored for being a denier. And then the “election” is covered with a veneer of legality. See how quickly we have just moved on and made Conservatives the blame for no red wave? Walker has already lost in my opinion. They have the needed ballots in reserve.

The 2022 results in GA just weren’t credible – anyone who was going to vote against Stacey was going to vote against Warnock.

The performance difference between Kemp and Walker is suspicious as all hell. I haven’t run the numbers, but my bet is that the counties where that performance difference was maximized is exactly where they cheated.

    The difference is Trump. Kemp bucked Trump on a lot of things, including on opening Georgia when Trump was insisting states remain locked down. Kemp kept Georgia free. Walker is Trump’s pick, and a swift-growing number of voters, particularly those in the center but increasingly those on the right, don’t want anything to do with Trump. We saw this across the nation on November 8th. It’s not a mystery.