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U.S. Consumer Confidence Hits Four Month Low in November

U.S. Consumer Confidence Hits Four Month Low in November

However, Cyber Monday hit a record high, bringing in $11.3 billion, making it “the biggest online shopping day of all time.”

The U.S. consumer confidence fell for the second month as retail and gas prices remained high.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hit 100.2 in November, down from 102.2 in October:

“Consumer confidence declined again in November, most likely prompted by the recent rise in gas prices,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy. Indeed, the Expectations Index is below a reading of 80, which suggests the likelihood of a recession remains elevated.”

“Inflation expectations increased to their highest level since July, with both gas and food prices as the main culprits. Intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all cooled. The combination of inflation and interest rate hikes will continue to pose challenges to confidence and economic growth into early 2023.”

November’s number is the lowest since July, which came in at 97.5.

Consumers showed mixed feelings regarding present business conditions. 18.2% rated business conditions as good, but 26.7% of them described the conditions as bad.

45.8% of the consumers praised the labor market.

However, consumers do not have positive feelings for the future:

Consumers remain pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in November.

  • 19.9% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, up slightly from 19.6%.
  • 22.7% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 24.3%.

Consumers were more downbeat about the short-term labor market outlook.

  • 18.6% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, down from 19.5%.
  • 21.4% anticipate fewer jobs, up from 20.8%.

Consumers were also more pessimistic about their short-term income prospects.

  • 17.2% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 19.6%.
  • 16.6% expect their incomes will decrease, up from 15.2%.

Most of the consumers whose confidence declined are in the 55+ age group and those who make below $50,000 a year.

However, Cyber Monday hit a record high, bringing in $11.3 billion, making it “the biggest online shopping day of all time.”

From Fox Business:

In recognizing the “softening consumer spending environment,” retailers focused heavily on discounting in order to drive demand, according to Adobe Digital Insights lead analyst Vivek Pandya.

“It spurred online spending to levels that were higher than expected, and reinforced e-commerce as a major channel to drive volume and capture consumer interest,” Pandya said.

In the peak hour Monday, shoppers collectively spent $12.8 million per minute. However, the high spending figure was largely driven by the toy category where online sales surged 684% compared to an average day last month.

It was also driven by the demand for electronics and computers, with the categories seeing a 391% and 372% increase, respectively, according to Adobe. Sporting goods, appliances, books and jewelry also saw strong demand, the data showed.

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Comments

Not what you would expect from a burning economy but it is what you would expect from a BUYden economy.

Consumer confidence hits four month low? How could it? We just had an enormous blue something or other that washed all hope of rednesss away showing once and for all that voters have strong confidence in Biden and his policies.

Obama got shellacked during his first mid-term, but Biden didn’t get one drop of varnish on the top of his bald head. So there!

The Gentle Grizzly | November 29, 2022 at 5:53 pm

Looking at that shelf, I’m willing to guess maybe 15% of what’s on the shelf isn’t Chinese.

The high level of consumer debt is acting as a drag as well. Folks cut back and skimped over the year in order to have a somewhat normal Christmas spending level. This may be the swan song for consumer spending. The credit limits are maxed for many and the average household doesn’t have even $1K in savings. Pay check to paycheck, most of have been there at some point is fine until a down size comes and your paycheck ends.

    Valerie in reply to CommoChief. | November 30, 2022 at 8:51 am

    I wound up spending more for staples in October-November than I expected, If that is replicated very much, consumer spending over the next two quarters might be a bit thin. This reminds me of the great Sugar Shortage in the Carter years. The women in my family decided to make do with what they had on hand. There was simply less sugar in the desserts. The family liked it.

    I might buy some foie gras, but I am not paying $8/lb for pasta!

Better than expected!

I wonder how long “economists” think it will take for Joe the Guy Who Mows Mr. Economists’ Lawn to realize that he can’t pay off the used car loan, the payment due on the fancy rims and tires and keep up on the rent. He planned on buying ground fx lighting for his sweet street ride – yes or no? The Fox News Guy seems very confident that things will be turning for the better!

ITS A YES!!

Subotai Bahadur | November 29, 2022 at 7:10 pm

Why wouldn’t we have a lot of consumer confidence? We have a government that is in power based on election fraud, That government is dedicated to the destruction of the country and it’s economy. Those in the government, regardless of party, have nothing but contempt for the American people. And the competency of those in government is between minimal and non-existent. That should have everybody expecting governmental excellence.

Subotai Bahadur

It’s the inverted bond yield curve that scares the #$% out of me.

Fromage Du Nord | November 30, 2022 at 2:02 am

Not what one would expct from a polity that just voted to maintain the status quo and continue along the current course.

Cyber Monday is at an all time high because Black Friday has high transit costs due to gas.

    Epimetheus in reply to healthguyfsu. | November 30, 2022 at 9:13 am

    And inflation.

    I have a friend who runs a business. He’s told me a couple of times that this year, “we’re going to have record income!” I bite my tongue each time so as not to say, “that’s because the money is worth less than ever before.”