“Right now, the latest national polls have Biden’s job approval among independents in the low 40s. If that number dips into the high 30s, it spells trouble ahead”
When thinking and writing about politics, we often focus on the left and the right. However, the people who fall somewhere in between are often more important in elections.
The 2022 midterms are still quite a way off. but Biden is not polling well with independent voters. If that trend continues, it could be very bad news for Democrats.
Naomi Lim writes at the Washington Examiner:
Independents cooling on Biden spells trouble for Democrats in 2022
Biden’s surprisingly steady approval ratings are starting to crater, though his disapproval numbers have consistently climbed during the first six months of his administration. That is a foreboding trend for Democrats before the 2022 midterm elections when the party is clinging onto power with slim majorities in the House and Senate.
Barely half of the country approves of Biden’s job as president, his lowest average rating since his January inauguration, according to FiveThirtyEight. That number is down from a 55% high in March. While that may not be a dramatic drop, it means Biden is not infallible to the drumbeat of time or shifts in political currents.
Simultaneously, more than two-fifths of the country disapproves of Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight, compared to slightly more than a third who held the same opinion in February…
The 2022 midterm election cycle will be determined by voter turnout, similar to elections before it. But for Paleologos, the contests and Biden’s waning popularity will also hinge on independent voters. Biden’s ploy to appeal to them with bipartisanship does not appear to be working.
“Right now, the latest national polls have Biden’s job approval among independents in the low 40s. If that number dips into the high 30s, it spells trouble ahead,” Suffolk University Political Research Center’s director said.
Eli Yokley of Morning Consult has more on this:
Biden Has a Growing Problem With Independents
President Joe Biden’s standing among independent voters on the pandemic and the economy has taken a hit in recent weeks amid a surge in COVID-19 cases and rising inflation, according to new Morning Consult/Politico polling.
It appears to be weakening Biden’s general reputation among unaffiliated voters, who helped Democrats secure full control of the White House and both chambers of Congress this year, exposing an early problem for his party to remedy with 14 months to go until the midterm elections.
According to a July 31-Aug. 2 poll, 44 percent of independent voters approve of Biden and 49 percent disapprove. Since April, the president’s net approval rating (the share who approve minus the share who disapprove) has dropped 18 percentage points among unaffiliated voters – a slow but consistent decline that is weighing on his overall numbers as Democrats express urgency regarding efforts to more aggressively sell the president’s successes and his agenda.
This is a major point:
Independent voters, like the overall electorate, are still more likely than not to express positive views about Biden’s handling of the pandemic despite the recent surge in cases. But the economy is a different story: Unaffiliated voters are pessimistic about its future trajectory and largely blame Biden for the 13-year high in inflation, with immigration — another regular line of attack for Republicans — being the lone topic on which his handling is more disliked.
Dissatisfaction with the party in power among independents is the key to changing who controls the House and Senate. If Biden doesn’t change course on immigration and the economy, his party will be punished by voters in 2022.DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.