I have received numerous requests to explain where I think things stand now in the post-election legal battles.

This email came in today:

I just read your post about why Justice Alito might be giving Respondents in PA so much time to respond. Thank you. Can you please share your thoughts on the overall status of the Trump team’s fight as of December 5, Saturday, in light of the many developments? Do you still believe there is a path to victory?

I was born and grew up in the Philippines, where, as a child, I witnessed the disenfranchisement of millions of Filipinos by an oppressive and corrupt regime. Many of the “low tech” methods deployed by that regime have re-surfaced in this country that I love, sans the goons with guns. But I fear that too many Americans do not understanding the ramifications of a corrupt election.
I, like many legal immigrants, do not see current events as a contest between any two candidates, but whether Americans retain their right to chose their leaders or not.

Your credentials and clear writing style can help people like me better understand what’s going on.

Thank you for any insights you may be willing to share with me by email or in your next post.

I wish I could give a legal pep talk because my heart is with so many of the readers. But I wouldn’t be true to myself or to you if I put on a happy face in the current circumstances.

My position has been clear since just after the election, on November 7, that the legal options were a long shot, but worth taking:

So it’s not over, but we have to be honest with ourselves that it remains a longshot. Trump needs hard evidence of major fraud, miscount, or computer malfunction to prevail in court. A specific category of ballot that was not legally cast is going to have to be identified, and it’s going to have to be in a sufficient quantity to make a difference. I hope they find it.

I revisited this problem on November 26, after Sidney Powell filed the lawsuits in Georgia and Michigan:

I’ve now had a chance to read through the entire Georgia complaint. The allegations demonstrate an unreliable election took place in which numerous safeguards were removed and/or ignored and/or violated through open connivance and deception.

What is lacking is the who/what/when/where that would show (1) a clearly identifiable group of ballots for Biden that were unlawfully counted, or for Trump that were not counted, as opposed to some unspecified number anecdotally demonstrated through affidavits, and (2) the software actually was manipulated in this instance, as opposed to being vulnerable to manipulation. That is not something Powell could know without an inspection of the computer systems, though there is circumstantial evidence of anomolies.

In a normal case, this pleading would be enough to get into the discovery phase, at which point documents and systems could be inspected, and more testimony taken. The problem here is that we have a short deadline until the electoral college process kicks in, and there’s not enough time. This election may have been stolen, but it was stolen months ago when Democrats weakened the type of control mechanisms that would give certainty, and on election night and thereafter when Democrats concealed what they were doing from Republican view.

Democrats had zero evidence that the 2016 election was stolen by the Russians, but kept up the claim of illegitimacy against Trump for 4 years. This time there is a lot of evidence that the 2020 election was suspect, but likely not enough evidence to get a court to throw the whole thing out and to reject certification.

Since then, there have been more legal losses, including in Pennsylvania and just yesterday in Nevada.

The calendar is the main enemy. We all know that something went very wrong here, too many first-hand accounts of suspicious activities. By way of example, the same media that gaslit the election, now is gaslighting us by denying that on Election Night Republican and media observers in Fulton County were told counting was over for the night so they could leave (they left, the counting went on). Georgia’s Secretary of State is denying any wrongdoing, but don’t tell us there never was an announcement that counting was suspended — it’s things like that that cause people to be suspicious.

In a normal lawsuit, there would be time for discovery — to take depositions, to get document production, to conduct forensic examinations of computer software and hardware systems. Maybe there’s a there there, maybe not. But as reflected in the Nevada decision, Trump was expected to have all the evidence at the inception of the legal proceedings. It’s a very difficult standard, somewhat unique to election contests, with the added time pressure of the electoral college vote coming up on December 14.

That’s a long-winded way of saying that I’m not expecting the legal challenges to succeed. I hope I’m surprised, but that’s my current assessment. It will take wins in multiple states to change the election outcome. That said, it’s important to see the legal challenges through to the end, because if you don’t try, you can’t succeed.

We will know soon. We are at the legal inflection point. We’ll likely have a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Pennsylvania by the end of next week, and likely other court resolutions as well.

The legal inflection point is just one of many.

We are nearing another inflection point: Georgia runoffs on January 5. If Republicans do not win at least one of those races, Chuck Schumer is the Majority Leader (since a VP Harris would be the deciding vote) in the Senate, and if Biden is president, he will try to fulfill his threat to “change America” if he gets that power.

There is yet another inflection point, which is how Trump supporters react if he loses and Biden is inaugurated. This website started in October 2008 just before Obama’s first win, and in the aftermath, it would have been very easy to give up. But the opposite happened, people were energized. There was the launch of the Tea Party movement and the crushing Republican House win in 2010. People didn’t (just) get mad, they got even. Of course, we always fight the battle on two fronts — Democrats and establishment Republicans. It was true then, and it’s true now, but the situation actually is much better now.

I’ve gone somewhat off track, something of a stream of consiousness.

Don’t give up, no matter what the eventual outcome of this election. In a word: #Resist.

 

 
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