Democrats’ November Strategy: Worry, Don’t Be Happy
Rebounding economic numbers are likely to be off the charts come the fall. So the media and Democrats need to create the perception of failure.
On June 29, 2020, I urged people Don’t fall for Operation Demoralize:
We are in the middle of another Operation Demoralize. It happens every national election. This time it’s early, only June.
The media swarms and lies. Tells you it’s over, wants you to give up. Happens every single time.
If anything, Operation Demoralize has picked up steam in the past two weeks to negate good economic data and rising consumer sentiment. May and June employment gains were far better than forecast, and the unemployment rate dropped sharply.
Public perception of the economy is improving off its lows. Rasmussen Report writes Economic Confidence Continues to Emerge from Its COVID Slump:
With more of the country moving through their COVID-19 reopening phases, confidence in the economy continues its upswing, with the Rasmussen Reports Economic Index rising another five points from June to 114.9.
Thirty-five percent (35%) of American Adults rate the economy as good or excellent this month, up another three points from last month but still well below the highs reported at the beginning of 2020. Thirty-three percent (33%) say the economy is poor, down six points from June and an 11-point improvement from May’s all-time high.
Twenty-eight percent (28%) think the economy is getting better, up just two points from a month ago. Forty-eight percent (48%) still expect a worsening economy, but that’s a four-point improvement from June and 19 points better than April’s most pessimistic view of economic direction. Seventeen percent (17%) see things staying about the same.
By comparison, just prior to the 2016 presidential election, 31% rated the economy as good or excellent, and 26% expected it to get better.
These findings are consistent with other measures of consumer confidence reported recently. The Consumer Confidence Index rose sharply:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in June, after virtually no change in May. The Index now stands at 98.1 (1985=100), up from 85.9 in May. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 68.4 to 86.2. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – increased from 97.6 in May to 106.0 this month.
The U. Michigan index also rose:
Consumer confidence rose moderately in June along with the reopening of the economy in several parts of the country, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
Compared with the shutdown in April, consumers thought current economic conditions had improved but have only partially offset the steep declines due to the pandemic. Not surprisingly, many consumers thought the economy could only improve from its virtual standstill in April, and the record-breaking rise in unemployment would surely ease in the year ahead, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys….
The Consumer Sentiment Index was 78.1 in the June 2020 survey, up from 72.3 in May but well below last year’s 98.2. The Expectations Index rose to 72.3 in June, up from 65.9 in May and substantially below last year’s 89.3. The Current Conditions Index was 87.1 in June, up from 82.3 in May, but significantly below last June’s 111.9.
It is very likely that July will score more job gains and August will be off the charts as a lot of people will reenter the workforce once the $600 unemployment bonus ends in July.
In late May, Politico had an article about The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading, a fall economic bounce-back:
In early April, Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration and now a professor at Harvard, was speaking via Zoom to a large bipartisan group of top officials from both parties. The economy had just been shut down, unemployment was spiking and some policymakers were predicting an era worse than the Great Depression. The economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump’s chances at reelection.
Furman, tapped to give the opening presentation, looked into his screen of poorly lit boxes of frightened wonks and made a startling claim.
“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” he said.
The former Cabinet secretaries and Federal Reserve chairs in the Zoom boxes were confused, though some of the Republicans may have been newly relieved and some of the Democrats suddenly concerned.
“Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken,” Furman said in an interview. Instead of forecasting a prolonged Depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and gross domestic product growth ever.
This fear is likely to become reality. Which is why Democrats have zero incentive to reopen the economy in states they control, or to stop rioting and protests in cities they control. The media will always present the worst possible scenario.
Despite this improvement, Rush Limbaugh sounds worried about perception of Trump’s handling of the pandemic:
Okay. I’ve gotta move fast here, folks, not much time. But I want to go back to this ABC News poll, Trump’s approval rating and handling the virus. His disapproval is 67%. “Sixty-seven percent disapprove of his management of the coronavirus pandemic and race relations.” Now, toss aside that we all think polling data is bogus. The fact is, if this is true, he’s gonna have to turn this around, because the pandemic is everything out there….
It would be best to, I think, proceed on the basis the number is fairly accurate. Even if the number is wrong, it can’t hurt to deal with it.
I’m not being critical.
I’m talking we’ve got — what — 115 days, the number is, before the election.
Perception is reality in politics
I agree that perception can be reality in politics and that this is cause for concern. Maintaining the perception of Trump failure on the pandemic would help Democrats avoid the negative (for them) reality of a rebounding economy.
“Worry, don’t be happy” is the plan.
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Comments
I heard Rush say that and it has worried me ever since. He’s usually much more optimistic and a half full cup kind of guy.
I know stage 4 cancer has a way of lowering the optimism, maybe … he’s probably right
I live in Texas and I know those thugs in the thousands in the streets looting had an effect. They passed it around and brought it home. We are suffering extremely high numbers of the China virus and they have blood on their hands
Of course, even Abbott is too chicken to call it what it was and is…
Don’t worry, be happy, and pass the ammunition!
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition w/ Lyrics
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uV9s1a6AZT0
Sister Rosetta Tharpe – Up Above My Head
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CRbD1DwsAwE
After recognizing that the MSM/”medical experts” BS was just that, the Gov ignored the MSM’s bleating and opened the state. Now, with numbers climbing*, Abbott is succumbing to the Karens and doing what the MSM/Socislist-Democrats want and trying to shut down the state again. Very disappointing.
* Most likely due to increased testing, bars opening in Houston, Austin, etc., Texas Department of Corrections increased reporting and changes in counting (e.g. report that Collin County is now including folks around a person who tests positive in their Wuhan ChiCom numbers). I read that two counties were reporting ICU(s?) were full. I couldn’t determine what counties or what was the cause, which is important because an ICU being full wasn’t a very unusual situation in pre-Wuhan ChiCom Flu times.
Soros Funded St. Louis City Prosecutor Executes Search Warrant Against Couple Who Defended Their Home, Firearm Seized…
Last Refuge
If I were polled I’d say I was unhappy with both BLM riot reaction/race relations and Covid19 response.. but not a dig on Trump, but that he allowed Fauci and Blix and media buffalo everyone into a major panic, right on cue after impeachment imploded in the Senate. I think it works out in the end, btw, because every time Trump has been tested, he’s gotten the better of the deal, though much after the fact..
I don’t know why Rush was so bummed, b/c he knows better than to refer to polling that is clearly push-polling to set a narrative. I’d crawl on broken glass to vote Trump back in. I have yet to meet a Trump voter that has lost the desire to reelect him. The media is harping on the mythical independent voter who makes their mind up the Sunday before voting. Nah… the left has forced ppl to care.. good and hard. I seriously doubt there are that many undecided voters that are worthy of our time.
Touched
From zero hedge:
Since this insanity began, I have continually asked myself and the Hedgies at large: CUI BONO? Who can genuinely profit from destroying the country they live in?
This morning one of our crazy conspiracy theorists offered an idea I think we should all consider: CHINA.
I’m not saying China deliberately released the virus. I think in fact that they were trying to hide the outbreak and manage appearances when U.S. intelligence stuck its finger in the pie and deliberately propagated the story of mass deaths and chaos in Wuhan. I suspect that what they actually had on their hands was a situation similar to that in New York and Italy: spread via hospitals to the weak, the ill, and the elderly, that very briefly overloaded the hospital capacity until the most vulnerable (a very small percentage of the population) had died. However mutual mistrust and a fear of civil unrest led the CCP to engage in mass lockdown.
What I think is possible, is that having gone through all that and taken a massive economic hit, China may very well have decided to “share the wealth” by encouraging as much panic and overreaction as possible when the virus hit the West. First, they distributed faulty test kits that were less accurate than flipping a coin, but encouraged Westerners to rely on the flawed results because Science. Then they gave away tons of faulty masks and other PPE in Europe and around the world, making it more likely that medical professionals would become ill due to false reliance on their protection. But most of all, you have to understand how Chinese students and young professionals dominate scientific positions all around the world. MANY of those are part-time agents of the CCP, allowed to seek advanced training elsewhere if and only if they make themselves available for occasional orders. Such as, orders to exaggerate the dangers of the virus to the press. To argue professionally for extreme caution. To provide a social example of “diligence” by promoting mask-wearing. To exacerbate racial tensions. In other words, there is a virtual army of potential Chinese propagandists stationed in virtually every country on earth, available to push for whatever policies the CCP orders in a soft, non-aggressive manner that maximizes the authority which we vest in “SCIENCE”. Furthermore the CCP continues to have philosophical influence over the intellectual Marxists who populate most Western university social science and liberal arts departments. And it is very much to the CCP’s benefit to cause chaos, civil unrest, and economic collapse in the Western world.
I’m not saying this IS what is happening. I don’t know. But this is the first realistic candidate I’ve found that actually does benefit from the sheer insanity that has been Western reaction to Covid.
Touche…… evil coMMUNIST Chinese tech….
At the moment my enthusiasm is dulled a bit by the statement that he was working on a DACA fix which would include a path to citizenship*. I’ve yet to see a definitive and conclusive refutation of that. I’m not happy with that, but admit I would trade such a path for a truly strongly enforced mandatory e-Verify for employment, to include existing employees. I have in mind a secure data system for verification with enforcement being something in the range of $2,000.00 USD fine for each employee found without proper verification – for a first (same day) offense. $10,000.00 plus Five Years for a subsequent violation (no second inspection sooner than two weeks after the first inspection to give the employer time to pay off his illegals and get them out of the business).
Another pipe dream – without the pipe.
* A path for almost a million predominantly likely Socialist-Democrat voters (some in CA already voting)
Believe nothing you hear or read and only half of what you see.
History repeats: first as tragedy, then as farce. The third time is enemy PSYOPS.
Thanks for this reminder.
Former soviet spy Yuri Bezmenov gave us a warning of marxist/leninist tactics. Scary at how relevant this 1980s video is and how accurate. https://youtu.be/IQPsKvG6WMI
The Maoist State Media are no longer in the news business. They are in the propaganda business. They will lie about the Wu flu, the state of the economy, and whatever President Trump says or does. My only hope is that the American people see through their lies and dismiss them for the traitors they are to the American idea.
Bravo!
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It’s part of Nancy Pelosi’s seal. But they’d never do an article about her like that.
Weazil Zippers
Excellent point. Many reasons to be optimistic.
1. Consumer confidence rising
2. Main street economy rebound in red states; the contrast with blue states will become even more pronounced
3. Market strength
Remember the NAFTA replacement, USMCA, has just gone into effect. One expected result will be the announcement of manufacturing and assembly jobs as corporations adjust, also rising orders from our existing manufacturing base to meet USMCA domestic production requirements
D policy folly and failure in blue states. Civil disturbance, locked down/ forcibly closed small business, ‘police defund movements’. None of these are going to win votes from working class, small business or suburban voters or independent voters.
To be sure it ain’t over till we cross the finish line. Make sure you reach out to everyone in your circle of family, friends, acquaintances and neighbors that might be persuaded of the critical nature of this election. Don’t waste time on those who are not interested. Organize, volunteer as poll watchers or precinct election judges.
There will be many asynchronous attempts by the d and their anarchist allies to disrupt in person voting and mail in ballots. Make sure your precinct has reliable, confident, unwavering poll watchers who won’t be intimidated by the antics of the mob.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/covid-19-hype-essential
In order to support the most important political objectives of the DNC writ large in the 2020 election, COVID-19 hype is essential:
Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot easily achieve ‘mail-in’ voting; which they desperately need in key battleground states in order to control the outcome.
Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot shut down rallies and political campaigning efforts of President Trump; which they desperate need to do in key battleground states.
Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot block the campaign contrast between an energetic President Trump and a physically tenuous, mentally compromised, challenger.
Without COVID-19 panic Democrats do not have an excuse for cancelling the DNC convention in Milwaukee; thereby blocking Team Bernie Sanders from visible opposition while protecting candidate gibberish from himself.
Without COVID-19 panic Democrats do not have a mechanism to keep voters isolated from each-other; limiting communication and national debate adverse to their interests. COVID-19 panic pushes the national conversation into the digital space where Big Tech controls every element of the conversation.
Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot keep their Blue state economies easily shut-down and continue to block U.S. economic growth. All thriving economies are against the political interests of Democrats.
Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot easily keep club candidate Joe Biden sealed in the basement; where the electorate is not exposed to visible signs of his dementia.
Without COVID-19 panic it becomes more difficult for Big Tech to censor voices that would outline the fraud and scheme. With COVID-19 panic they have a better method and an excuse.
Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot advance, influence, or organize their preferred presidential debate format, a ‘virtual presidential debate’ series. [Comrade Gretchen Whitmer knows this plan, hence she cancelled the Michigan venue]…….
So sad.
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Weazil Zippers