Trump Slightly Trails Biden in Six Pivotal States, But Fares Better Than Warren

Trump Slightly Trails Biden in Six Pivotal States, But Fares Better Than Warren

President Donald Trump has low national ratings and trails against Democratic rivals in national polls.

However, hypothetical polls in six important states show him slightly behind former Vice President Joe Biden, but ahead of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

The results come from surveys taken by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College. They interviewed 3,766 registered voters.

I noticed the New York Times led off with registered voters, which shows a tight race. But when you look at the likely voters, Trump fares a lot better.

When it comes to our elections the Electoral College is the only thing that matters.

These six states went Republican in 2016:

• Michigan 16 Electoral Votes: Trump 47.3%, Hillary 47%
• Pennsylvania 20 Electoral Votes: Trump 48.2%, Hillary 47.5%
• Wisconsin 10 Electoral Votes: Trump 47.2%, Hillary 46.5%
• Florida 29 Electoral Votes: Trump 48.6%, Hillary 47.4%
• Arizona 11 Electoral Votes: Trump 48.1%, Hillary 44.6%
• North Carolina 15 Electoral Votes: Trump 49.8%, Hillary 46.2%

Trump barely trails Biden in the six states among likely voters except for North Carolina. We have seen Biden losing ground across the board with Warren becoming the favorite.

The Democrats may have a problem with that since the survey shows Trump ahead of Warren among likely voters except for Arizona. As you can see Arizona only has 11 electoral votes.

If the numbers in the survey remain the same and Warren wins the nomination Trump would beat her by the same numbers as he did Hillary:

The results suggest that Ms. Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender — including the fraught question of “likability” — could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate. And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.

The New York Times admits that while this survey comes a full year before the election, but these “head-to-head polls a year ahead of the election have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before.” Trump’s consistent approval ratings are “a reason to think this pattern might hold again for a fourth cycle.”

Plus 90% of Trump supporters from 2016 still “approve of his performance.” His approval among the largest group of voters, the white, working-class voters, remains almost the same as from 2016:

The poll offers little evidence that any Democrat, including Mr. Biden, has made substantial progress toward winning back the white working-class voters who defected to the president in 2016, at least so far. All the leading Democratic candidates trail in the precincts or counties that voted for Barack Obama and then flipped to Mr. Trump.

As a result, Democrats appear to have made little progress in reclaiming their traditional advantage in the Northern battleground states, despite their sweep there in the 2018 midterms. Respondents in these states said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates by an average of six points, all but identical to their actual winning margins.

Nearly two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president against all three named opponents.

I know the Democrats do not want another old white man because progressive or something, but Biden appears to be their one saving grace. Biden could swing the election to the Democrats.

Warren looks like another Hillary (emphasis mine):

An analysis of the 205 respondents from the six core battleground states who support Mr. Biden but not Ms. Warren suggests that she might struggle to win many of them over.

Over all, 26 percent of these voters say they have a favorable view of Ms. Warren, compared with 47 percent who have an unfavorable view.

They say, by a margin of 74 percent to 24 percent, that they would prefer a more moderate Democrat nominee to a more liberal one. By a nearly identical margin, they would prefer a Democrat who promises to find common ground with Republicans over one who promises to fight for a bold progressive agenda.

Of voters who support Mr. Biden but not Ms. Warren, 52 percent agree with the statement that Ms. Warren is too far to the left for them to feel comfortable supporting her for president, while 26 percent disagree.

The survey found the “relatively well educated” find Warren too far left (emphasis mine):

They oppose single-payer health care or free college, and they support the Republicans’ 2017 tax law. They are not natural Democratic voters: 41 percent consider themselves conservative; 20 percent say they’re Republican; 33 percent supported Mr. Trump or Mr. Johnson in 2016.

Dawn Marshall, an independent from Tampa, Fla., said that with the exception of Mr. Biden, the Democrats running for president are too left-leaning for her.

“They want to be socialists, and this is not a socialistic country,” she said. “This is a working country where people go out, do the best that they can do, find jobs. I am so sick and tired of having to support other folks. We can’t be equal.”

Also, 41% of the respondents who would choose Biden, but not Warren, find most of the women who have run for president are not likable.

While the Democrats may scream sexism, they cannot afford to scare off this group since it’s mostly males and working class. They also hold some conservative views.

But the group also includes women (emphasis mine):

Some women also fall into this group. Elysha Savarese, 26, works in victims advocacy in Florida. She voted for Mr. Trump and said she would not do so again.

But she wouldn’t vote for Ms. Warren, either.

“There’s just something about her that I just don’t like,” she said. “I just don’t feel like she’s a genuine candidate. I find her body language to be very off-putting. She’s very cold. She’s basically a Hillary Clinton clone.”

As for female presidential candidates in general, she said, “They’re super unlikable.”

Savarese isn’t wrong.

Maybe, just maybe, the Democrats should not concentrate on skin color or sex.

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